COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (4 Viewers)

[Bayouboy]

It's obvious that most of you don't know how your food is grown and processed in most of the industrialised world. Poultry and pork production systems are highly efficient and are focused on weekly production batches. In the pork production system, large sow farms produce weekly batches of weaned pigs...12-14 lb. at 21 days of age. These operations have specific areas dedicated to mating sows, gestating sows and areas where they give birth. At any one time, there will be 16 weeks of pregnant sows in the pipeline plus 3 weeks of sows lactating. It is imperative that every week, sows wean their piglets so that the next batch can enter the birthing unit. Now to put numbers in perspective, the usual size of a sow farm is 5000 head. This farm will produce 2,400 piglets each week.
These weaned pigs must then be moved to a wean-finish facility where they will spend the next 24 weeks of their life growing from 12 lb to 300 lb. at which time they are slaughtered. Again...at the end of the 24 weeks, the pigs must go to the slaughterhouse to accommodate the next batch of weaned pigs. There is no buffer in the system. Closure of a processing plant for one week is a disaster in the making...farmers can possibly get by one to two weeks by double-stocking their facilities...meaning placing twice as many pigs in their facility as they would normally. This has serious animal welfare implications because the animals have half as much space as they need including access to feed and water is reduced by 50%. Three or more weeks and the only alternative is to euthanise animals just like what is occurring now. You have a pipeline of pigs coming every week and cannot turn it off...and that pipeline is 43 weeks long (16 weeks of pregnancy, 3 weeks of lactation and 24 weeks of post-weaning growth).
Now, the poultry industry is similar in many respects...but more easy to shut off the pipeline by not setting or hatching the weekly batch of chicks. However, broiler chickens (genetically improved for fast and efficient growth and high yields of breast meat) cannot be held one or two weeks longer than normal. Their skeletal structure will not support the additional weight that these birds would gain in the 7-14 extra days.

Very interesting. I was unaware of the process.

 

[WhoDatPhan78]

What the US might learn from China about COVID? Lie about your numbers?

I’m not sure our numbers are much more reliable than China’s.

I can say for sure that the numbers the state is reporting for Jackson and Bienville parish have been half of the actual number for about a month.

 

[sammymvpknight]

@sammymvpknight - thoughts on that Remdewhatever study/trial? Are we false starting again or is it legit?

I've thought all along a solid treatment would be a game changer and that normalcy doesn't really require a vaccine. I'd have no problem knowing that I'll eventually get Covid if I know that I won't die from it. I'd start living life again tomorrow (whilst staying away from anyone I know that's at risk or old) if there was a strong, proven antiviral available.

I've never understood the "we're in this until we get a vaccine in a year" take. It seems the fastest way to normalcy, outside of the Governor Hot Wheels #YOLO approach, is something that knocks the virus down to something that doesn't threaten the majority of the healthy, under 70 population.

We need a vaccine AND a good treatment. Ther eis some optimism with HIV drugs, such as remdesivir. They are being used, they from what I've heard, it may help reduce viral load (much like they do with HIV). This virus does appear to have a dose dependent effect to it. Once someone has ARDS and is on dialysis...this is an unbelievable difficult disease to treat (not unlike other diseases that cause ARDS and kidney failure). More physicians are advocating early treatment with the HIV drugs and/or hydroxychloraquine (depending on who you want to believe) and I think that the logic behind it makes since. But you don't have an unlimited amount of medication and it isn't very well studied right now, so patient selection is a bit of a question. But if we can prevent ARDS and acute kidney injury from happening in the first place, that's huge. Waiting until someone is on death's doorstep might be a little bit too late in the game. I definitely could invision the medicines being used in hospitalized, pre-intubated patients. I don't think that we have the supply and the research to suggest that it needs to be done in outpatients. I've heard some healthcare workers who get repeated exposure would like prophylaxis, much like prophylaxis is used for needle sticks in HIV patients, and I think that is very reasonable assuming that the healthcare worker truly is high risk and we have the national supply.

We will very likely be waiting a while for a vaccine. The soonest that a vaccine has been rushed into production is four years. One year seem optimistic. But certainly, a vaccine will be nice, especially in the high risk populations (healthcare workers, elderly, immunocompromised, family members of immunocompromised).

 

[travelingsaintsfan]

I don't understand the slaughtering of livestock. I understand the meat packing plants are at reduced capacity, but to say the there is a surplus of meat is what I don't understand. I know restaurants are closed, but people are still eating. I have bought as much meat in the past month that I normally would buy in a year. My chest freezer, my house refrigerator freezer and my RV refrigerator freezer are all full. My neighbors are looking for meat and when they find meat they are buying more also. My smoker is now running about two times a week where normally I would only use it once a week.

 

[St. Geezy]

I am starting to wonder when will death count start to catch up to the lowering case counts. I thought we were making progress when it came in at 1,300 that one day.

There were just under 2,400 deaths yesterday. It is almost astounding how this has been almost pushed to the back burner, because of how normal it has become.

 

[sammymvpknight]

I don't understand the slaughtering of livestock. I understand the meat packing plants are at reduced capacity, but to say the there is a surplus of meat is what I don't understand. I know restaurants are closed, but people are still eating. I have bought as much meat in the past month that I normally would buy in a year. My chest freezer, my house refrigerator freezer and my RV refrigerator freezer are all full. My neighbors are looking for meat and when they find meat they are buying more also. My smoker is now running about two times a week where normally I would only use it once a week.

There are a number of rate limiting steps. There are fewer workers at processing plants, so there are fewer people available to prepare the meat. There are fewer truckers, so less distribution. The product you see at the supermarket is a final product and the livestock has multiple steps before it arrives there in a shrink-wrapped bag.

 

[sammymvpknight]

I've been asked to be a part of an advisory committee for our church. I attend a decent sized church...not a mega-church by any stretch of the imagination, but big enough that we have a handful of either active or retired healthcare providers. I was pretty excited to see that the church would get our input.

 

[Goatman Saint]

I don't understand the slaughtering of livestock. I understand the meat packing plants are at reduced capacity, but to say the there is a surplus of meat is what I don't understand. I know restaurants are closed, but people are still eating. I have bought as much meat in the past month that I normally would buy in a year. My chest freezer, my house refrigerator freezer and my RV refrigerator freezer are all full. My neighbors are looking for meat and when they find meat they are buying more also. My smoker is now running about two times a week where normally I would only use it once a week.

The only one I really know for sure is hogs. The United States exports well over 1/4 of its hog population to China. It’s a luxury expense there, not like here. Once this blew up in China, imports of pork sank like a stone. Because of that, and the closure of the restaurant industry as a whole (massive waste and generally larger portion sizes ) there is a surplus of a lot of things.

 

[James Spader]

It's obvious that most of you don't know how your food is grown and processed in most of the industrialised world. Poultry and pork production systems are highly efficient and are focused on weekly production batches. In the pork production system, large sow farms produce weekly batches of weaned pigs...12-14 lb. at 21 days of age. These operations have specific areas dedicated to mating sows, gestating sows and areas where they give birth. At any one time, there will be 16 weeks of pregnant sows in the pipeline plus 3 weeks of sows lactating. It is imperative that every week, sows wean their piglets so that the next batch can enter the birthing unit. Now to put numbers in perspective, the usual size of a sow farm is 5000 head. This farm will produce 2,400 piglets each week.
These weaned pigs must then be moved to a wean-finish facility where they will spend the next 24 weeks of their life growing from 12 lb to 300 lb. at which time they are slaughtered. Again...at the end of the 24 weeks, the pigs must go to the slaughterhouse to accommodate the next batch of weaned pigs. There is no buffer in the system. Closure of a processing plant for one week is a disaster in the making...farmers can possibly get by one to two weeks by double-stocking their facilities...meaning placing twice as many pigs in their facility as they would normally. This has serious animal welfare implications because the animals have half as much space as they need including access to feed and water is reduced by 50%. Three or more weeks and the only alternative is to euthanise animals just like what is occurring now. You have a pipeline of pigs coming every week and cannot turn it off...and that pipeline is 43 weeks long (16 weeks of pregnancy, 3 weeks of lactation and 24 weeks of post-weaning growth).
Now, the poultry industry is similar in many respects...but more easy to shut off the pipeline by not setting or hatching the weekly batch of chicks. However, broiler chickens (genetically improved for fast and efficient growth and high yields of breast meat) cannot be held one or two weeks longer than normal. Their skeletal structure will not support the additional weight that these birds would gain in the 7-14 extra days.

Spacing please....giant wall of text. Lol. Much thanks for the info.

 

[Loose Cannon]

We need a vaccine AND a good treatment. Ther eis some optimism with HIV drugs, such as remdesivir. They are being used, they from what I've heard, it may help reduce viral load (much like they do with HIV). This virus does appear to have a dose dependent effect to it. Once someone has ARDS and is on dialysis...this is an unbelievable difficult disease to treat (not unlike other diseases that cause ARDS and kidney failure). More physicians are advocating early treatment with the HIV drugs and/or hydroxychloraquine (depending on who you want to believe) and I think that the logic behind it makes since. But you don't have an unlimited amount of medication and it isn't very well studied right now, so patient selection is a bit of a question. But if we can prevent ARDS and acute kidney injury from happening in the first place, that's huge. Waiting until someone is on death's doorstep might be a little bit too late in the game. I definitely could invision the medicines being used in hospitalized, pre-intubated patients. I don't think that we have the supply and the research to suggest that it needs to be done in outpatients. I've heard some healthcare workers who get repeated exposure would like prophylaxis, much like prophylaxis is used for needle sticks in HIV patients, and I think that is very reasonable assuming that the healthcare worker truly is high risk and we have the national supply.

We will very likely be waiting a while for a vaccine. The soonest that a vaccine has been rushed into production is four years. One year seem optimistic. But certainly, a vaccine will be nice, especially in the high risk populations (healthcare workers, elderly, immunocompromised, family members of immunocompromised).

So the key with Hydroxy and Remdes is to catch the virus early enough for it to prevent serious issues and hospitalization? That seems like a tight window between your healthy asymptomatic or moderate symptom folks and the severe cases where it's probably too late to be effective.

I guess that will make being diligent about getting yourself tested if you start to feel sick important yeah? So that you can hit it with meds before the virus takes hold too much?

 

[KiwiSaint]

Spacing please....giant wall of text. Lol. Much thanks for the info.

Yea...my inner Saintman2884 came through...sorry!

 

[Optimus Prime]

I did go to see my grandfather yesterday

Thanks to everyone who said to go

We spent a couple hours with him and I'm glad he was awake and having a good day (he sleeps a lot and was asleep all day the day before, I was told he can also be out of it with all the medication he's on even when he's up)

We didn't have any tear filled heart to heart - that's not his style or mine - but we really enjoyed the visit

It's hitting me that I'm probably never going to see him again and that hurts like hell

My grandfather passed this morning

Tomorrow is his birthday

 

[superchuck500]

My grandfather passed this morning

Tomorrow is his birthday

So sorry to hear that man. I'm glad he was awake for you to get to share some time together.

 

[nolaswede]

My grandfather passed this morning

Tomorrow is his birthday

Really sorry Optimus!

 

[KiwiSaint]

The only one I really know for sure is hogs. The United States exports well over 1/4 of its hog population to China. It’s a luxury expense there, not like here. Once this blew up in China, imports of pork sank like a stone. Because of that, and the closure of the restaurant industry as a whole (massive waste and generally larger portion sizes ) there is a surplus of a lot of things.

This isn't quite accurate. Pork is not a luxury in China...it is their largest protein source and China is by far and away the largest producer and consumer of pork by a large margin. The US exported 665 thousand metric tons to China/Hong Kong last year while we produced 15,000,000 metric tons. That means we exported 4.4% of our pork to China, not well over 1/4 as you stated.

2019's exports to China increased 89% from 2018 due to another completely unrelated viral problem. A disease called African Swine Fever decimated the Chinese herd and because pork is a staple in China (not a luxury), China held their nose and increased the amount of imported pork from the US. That means before 2019, US exports to China accounted for 2.3% of the US national production.

FInally, the total percent of US pork exported worldwide is about 26% and Mexico is our biggest customer at over 700,000 metric tons.

I am in daily contact with my former employer, Smithfield Foods, the largest pork producer and processor in the world as we import a lot of their pork here in Australia. The situation is dire and beyond anyone's worst imaginations. Because of the closure of numerous processing plants and others at reduced capacity, the pigs are backing up on farms. Imagine 12,000,000 pigs processed per month and packer capacity reduced by 40%. This means that 1.1 million pigs cannot be processed each and every week that this continues. As shown in a previous post, there is no way to stop the flow of pigs through the 43 week pipeline except to euthanise piglets or induce abortions in pregnant sows. Both of these options are now being implemented on a large scale across North America. As John Tyson stated earlier in the week, the meat supply chain is at a breaking point.

Final point...the large meat producers in the US have no one to blame but themselves. They completely mishandled their work forces in the plants. Many are migrants and in one Smithfield plant in South Dakota, over 90 languages are spoken so COVID mitigation strategies could not be communicated effectively. In addition, they were paying bonuses to staff to not call in sick. This was a recipe for disaster. Now compare that to what we did here in Australia...as soon as the crisis started, we instituted thermal cameras at our processing plants and screened all employees. Staff were told to stay home if they felt ill or had even a slight fever. Staggered shifts were implemented and strict social distancing rules put in place in break rooms and work areas where possible. All areas frequented by staff are cleaned and disinfected four times per shift. We have had no reduction of the operational capacity of any of our plants. Now our only problem is that we don't have enough imported US meat to meet our customer demands!