COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (4 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

I've been thinking Orleans would be averaging zero new cases per day by May 1. Didn't quite get there - I think we've averaged about 30 new cases per day this week. Seems to have flattened out.

I still think we hit all the marks for phased reopening but LaToya's not listening to me.

I suspect many localities are watching what happens in Georgia. If Kemp wants to make his state a guniea pig, it's good data for others to watch.

 

[St. Widge]

1,038 new cases in Florida today as well. Up from 347 on Wednesday and 497 yesterday.

710 new cases in Louisiana which has a much smaller population. Not a good sign as the stay at home order is still in effect and was not lifted 2 weeks ago. Could go up as we approach two weeks after the lifting of orders.

I suspect most of this is just people ignoring the order. They are going to force Governors and Mayors to return the stay a home orders because they just couldn't stay home and/or refused to social distance and wear masks.

 

[gboudx]

Southwest will start requiring facial coverings on May 11th. New set of procedures just hit my Inbox.

Travel Preparation and Expectations | Southwest Airlines

Learn about how to best prepare for your upcoming travel, and the cleaning procedures Southwest implements to ensure a smooth flight.

www.southwest.com

 

[St. Widge]

I've been thinking Orleans would be averaging zero new cases per day by May 1. Didn't quite get there - I think we've averaged about 30 new cases per day this week. Seems to have flattened out.

I still think we hit all the marks for phased reopening but LaToya's not listening to me.

I think we have hit the Phase I mark but to be fair, LaToya can't do anything until the Governor lifts the state wide order.

That being said, we went up to 48 cases today and Jefferson had 108 cases. The state as a whole had a 2.3% increase according to Jeff Asher. If that trend continues, none of us are going to get the loosening of restrictions that we want. Hopefully it's just a blip, but I just can't help but thinking that it's going to be a trend because people refuse to do simply things like social distancing and wearing masks.

 

[Tapxe]

710 new cases in Louisiana which has a much smaller population. Not a good sign as the stay at home order is still in effect and was not lifted 2 weeks ago. Could go up as we approach two weeks after the lifting of orders.

I suspect most of this is just people ignoring the order. They are going to force Governors and Mayors to return the stay a home orders because they just couldn't stay home and/or refused to social distance and wear masks.

Just back from Rouses. They've asked all patrons to wear a mask and have provided masks for all employees.

That said, maybe 50% of the folks wore em. Not unsurprisingly most not wearing them had iffy hygiene so I think they just don't care in general.

Oh and got this from the local clinic. I'm going to pass on it even though I'd really like to have the test. I don't believe the antibody tests are as accurate as they need to be to spend that kind of money on it.

Patient Plus is now offering COVID-19 antibody testing for $105. Instantly book a testing appointment online: https://bit.ly/2ydZf1m 'STOP' to opt-out

 

[St. Widge]

Does this happen regularly to people who have had COVID-19? Or is this a rare outlier?

I don't know for sure, but I think it's pretty common for anyone that needs to be put on a ventilator, but it's not an issue for people who aren't hospitalized or have no symptoms. I think the destruction of their small airways is the reason why they have to be put on the ventilator.

 

[Goatman Saint]

Coronavirus: Politicians in 'bulletproof vests' as protesters with rifles enter state capitol

Protesters yelled at police to let them into the chamber as they tried to get politicians to end the state's strict lockdown.

news.sky.com

‘Murica!!! Liberate Michigan!!

 

[SaintInBucLand]

I don't know for sure, but I think it's pretty common for anyone that needs to be put on a ventilator, but it's not an issue for people who aren't hospitalized or have no symptoms. I think the destruction of their small airways is the reason why they have to be put on the ventilator.

Oh I thought you had some kind of medical background or data to refute what Sammy had said, you do realize they have a medical background right?

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

I think we have hit the Phase I mark but to be fair, LaToya can't do anything until the Governor lifts the state wide order.

She won't even adopt the small changes he made to the statewide order. I have strong feelings....

 

[St. Geezy]

710 new cases in Louisiana which has a much smaller population. Not a good sign as the stay at home order is still in effect and was not lifted 2 weeks ago. Could go up as we approach two weeks after the lifting of orders.

I suspect most of this is just people ignoring the order. They are going to force Governors and Mayors to return the stay a home orders because they just couldn't stay home and/or refused to social distance and wear masks.

I'll say this...I work from home, but one of my job functions necessitates me going in for about an hour every Friday to take care of a couple of things. When this all started and I was on the road, it was like a ghost town. Now though, it seems like traffic is getting back to what it was before.

People are starting to relax it feels like.

 

[St. Widge]

Oh I thought you had some kind of medical background or data to refute what Sammy had said, you do realize they have a medical background right?

You do realize that's why I asked if I was missing something right? And while I don't "have a medical background" I can read and have read a lot of medical and epidemioloy studies for my job. And I know a decent bit about pulmonology and have spoken to many pulmonologists about lung diseases. So, I would defer to anyone with medical qualifications, but I do have at least some idea what I am talking about in this instance.

And what I said doesn't contradict anything he said. He is right about the flu. I'm just pointing out that COVID-19 has additional issues that the Flu does not. But I'm fully open to someone with a Medical Degree telling me I'm wrong.

 

[bonnjer]

I think we have hit the Phase I mark but to be fair, LaToya can't do anything until the Governor lifts the state wide order.

That being said, we went up to 48 cases today and Jefferson had 108 cases. The state as a whole had a 2.3% increase according to Jeff Asher. If that trend continues, none of us are going to get the loosening of restrictions that we want. Hopefully it's just a blip, but I just can't help but thinking that it's going to be a trend because people refuse to do simply things like social distancing and wearing masks.

The only way to get people to wear masks out in public / stores is for the stores to mandate it for entry. Without that mandate, half the people are going to go without masks (at least from what I've seen the last week or so).

 

[bonnjer]

Did we discuss this already? I might have skipped over it in the thread.

With reopening, KC businesses required to refuse entry to customers who don’t provide contact information

When KC reopens next week, whether you go to a restaurant, movie theater or church, if you stay for more than 10 minutes, the business has to know who you are to allow you entry.

fox4kc.com

I suspect there's going to be a strong for / against argument with this. Much like the whole mask wearing situation.

 

[CoolBrees]

Once we reopen, there will be an inevitable spike in cases. Where on the curve that spike comes is absolutely critical. Too soon and the peak of the March/April timeframe won’t be the peak of the first wave, rather it will occur in July or August and flow right into the second wave.

The NY tv station article being discussed a few days earlier, Cuomo said study shows there was about a 1% statewide increase in infected rate over expected Rate. There are about 25% of population infected in NYC according to Cuomo. This may construe the wrong message, ie that the virus isn’t as deadly as thought.

Considering the amount of positive tests and infections NY has recorded, 25% infected isn’t surprising and wouldn’t change the expected mortality rate at all. Especially since that rate is global.

Besides, trying to determine an accurate mortality rate right now is really impossible.

During the case study (pandemic) variables are defined and isolated. Lagging indicators (Mortality rate) are only worthwhile as a function of cases with outcome (ie those who got better and those who died). Otherwise, to use an analogy, you are counting the dead in the middle of a battle, and reporting the results as the morality rates for the war.

Right now, there is way too much noise in the system to make accurate predictions using lagging indicators, which is what you are doing by trying to base any outcome or prediction on using mortality rates.

We can, however, now begin to make some predictions on the mortality curves (like when and how long the rates it will take for the drop to what is the expected mortality rates worldwide, 1-3%). If those numbers are accurate It will be borne out over the summer. But when the current counts have almost 64% of total cases are still active that is too large a portion try.

Right now the global mortality rate is 7.1% of all positive cases, 3.3 million world wide, or 218,169 people dead. In four months.

The Global Mortality rate (GMr) of cases with outcome, has seemed to peak and is starting to decline. On Sunday, the GMr of cases with outcome was 19.1, or 218,169 dead out of 1,139,794 cases with outcome. The rate hit its peak last Thursday at 22.3% and has steadily declined since

It took until 4/1 to reach a million cases. We hit 2 million on 4/13. We crossed 3 million on the 25th.

ON 4/1 we had 52,991 dead. 4/13 was 129,843 dead. 5/25 there were 205,969 dead world wide.

On 5/1 we are over 3.3 million with over 232,000 dead. Globally, we are not slowing down.

I don’t do this to be alarmist. And to be sure there are potentially millions of cases potentially worldwide that have it been reported due to lack of symptoms. But that isn’t the point.

The two groups’s data (symptomatic vs non symptomatic) can and should be treated differently.

What the math shows, is if you have symptoms of Covid-19, and test positive, the chances of hospitalization and ultimately death are scary high (currently 19% global mortality rate for cases with outcome, 7% overall mortality rate). To be sure, the overall rate will be much lower once the rest of the population is factored in.

but my point is, governmentally speaking, if you don’t know for sure who will be symptomatic and who won’t, I think you have to act as if everyone would be symptomatic and operate from those parameters and open per the government’s recommendations cautiously.

 

[buzd]

The only way to get people to wear masks out in public / stores is for the stores to mandate it for entry. Without that mandate, half the people are going to go without masks (at least from what I've seen the last week or so).

Agreed, although people seem to be getting better about it. Slowly.

We went to Harolds yesterday - a plant shop in the Marginy (an outdoor shop) and every single person had a mask on. I know it's the Marigny, so masks are probably already stylish, but it was outside. I was impressed.