COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (32 Viewers)

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Eeyore

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UPDATED TRACKER LINKS:





It shouldn't be a big deal but with a large number of people unable to afford healthcare, and the anti vax crowd growing there's a small chance that this could be interesting.
 
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St. Widge

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That doesn't really count, though, does it? Just like Barcadia is a bar and not an arcade. I get that video game machines still exist, but since they tore down the Fun Arcade on Vets and closed the arcade in the FQ, I don't think we have a true arcade.

Other than maybe Dave and Busters, but that place sucks.

I think the arcades are closed in all the malls around here. But, I guess it's possible that in some parts of the State arcades still exist.
 

Mr. Sparkle

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I'm not trying to pick a fight here. I have always respected your point of view. We don't always agree, but I think you're a smart guy and on the whole I find you to be objective and level headed. So, my good faith question to you is what is the solution? Do we just go in lock step with what the State does? Do we go faster than the State? How do we balance trying to bring back the economy with not killing too many people? And how do we convince people to come to New Orleans and spend their money in the middle of a pandemic?

And, I'm going to be up front here, I have a lot more sympathy for arguments wanting to take more risks with COVID to make sure that people can make a living, than for arguments based on people wanting to take more risks with COVID to stop being inconvenience by this whole thing. I think balancing risk with making sure people can make a living is a legitimate thing to do. You can do it with inconvenience and people being able to enjoy their lives too, but I think a much lower level of risk is acceptable to accomplish that goal.
Very simple. Right now I would go to Phase 2 with the rest of the state. I would argue we should have gone to Phase 2 sooner than the rest of the state given that we have performed as well or better than the every other parish in bringing the spread to a very low number, but there is no reason to go slower. So let's get going with everyone else.

Every metric she has publicly cited (less than 50 new cases per day, etc.) were met no later than May 10 and sooner in some cases. We've got weeks and weeks of data that supports going to Phase 2. And if it blows up, you can go back to Phase 1, which is part of the whole design of the plan, and why schools are planning for all types of scenarios. Be flexible and smart (alien concepts around City Hall)

Here is the data I am looking at to support my position - it comes from the City.



As for the reasons why, its all of the above. No I don't expect a rush of tourists but it will be more than zero. And while "personal convenience" seems like a low priority item, it's also not zero, especially when our citizens just go to JP to get done what they need, which means keeping Orleans businesses closed to Orleans residents. It's just dumber than can be.

And then there is the playgrounds and parks issue, which I believe everyone here is familiar with, so I will refrain from further comment.
 

St. Widge

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Very simple. Right now I would go to Phase 2 with the rest of the state. I would argue we should have gone to Phase 2 sooner than the rest of the state given that we have performed as well or better than the every other parish in bringing the spread to a very low number, but there is no reason to go slower. So let's get going with everyone else.

Every metric she has publicly cited (less than 50 new cases per day, etc.) were met no later than May 10 and sooner in some cases. We've got weeks and weeks of data that supports going to Phase 2. And if it blows up, you can go back to Phase 1, which is part of the whole design of the plan, and why schools are planning for all types of scenarios. Be flexible and smart (alien concepts around City Hall)

Here is the data I am looking at to support my position - it comes from the City.



As for the reasons why, its all of the above. No I don't expect a rush of tourists but it will be more than zero. And while "personal convenience" seems like a low priority item, it's also not zero, especially when our citizens just go to JP to get done what they need, which means keeping Orleans businesses closed to Orleans residents. It's just dumber than can be.
Fair enough. And, I agree it's probably time to move to Phase 2 based on the numbers, and as you note, we can move back to Phase I, or Stay at Home, if necessary.

But, assuming the City does decide to let Harah's and bars open at 25% occupancy, I don't see where very many businesses are closed in Phase I as opposed to Phase II. I think all that would remain closed under Phase I are pool halls, bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, recreational pools and spas. And, I don't think those have a very big effect on the Orleans Parish economy. And sure businesses can go to 50% occupancy as opposed to 25% occupancy in Phase II, but I'm not sure that they are even getting 25% occupancy right now and I doubt the difference between those two is going to make someone go out to eat in St. Bernard or Jefferson, as opposed to Orleans. I think the bigger problem is that people just don't want to go out in a pandemic. But, sure, let pool halls, bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, recreational pools and spas open up with proper precautions

This isn't definitive, but according to Open Table, as of yesterday, reservations were still down 84.32% in New Orleans. I wish they had Metairie, St. Tammany, or St. Bernard numbers so we could compare, but they don't.

Here is the link. You can select cities or states: https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry

So, I get that 16% would be better than zero and sure the numbers might justify allowing the 50% occupancy allowed in Phase II, but I really just don't think it's going to matter.
 

Mr. Sparkle

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Fair enough. And, I agree it's probably time to move to Phase 2 based on the numbers, and as you note, we can move back to Phase I, or Stay at Home, if necessary.

But, assuming the City does decide to let Harah's and bars open at 25% occupancy, I don't see where very many businesses are closed in Phase I as opposed to Phase II. I think all that would remain closed under Phase I are pool halls, bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, recreational pools and spas. And, I don't think those have a very big effect on the Orleans Parish economy. And sure businesses can go to 50% occupancy as opposed to 25% occupancy in Phase II, but I'm not sure that they are even getting 25% occupancy right now and I doubt the difference between those two is going to make someone go out to eat in St. Bernard or Jefferson, as opposed to Orleans. I think the bigger problem is that people just don't want to go out in a pandemic. But, sure, let pool halls, bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, recreational pools and spas open up with proper precautions

This isn't definitive, but according to Open Table, as of yesterday, reservations were still down 84.32% in New Orleans. I wish they had Metairie, St. Tammany, or St. Bernard numbers so we could compare, but they don't.

Here is the link. You can select cities or states: https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry

So, I get that 17% would be better than zero and sure the numbers might justify allowing the 50% occupancy allowed in Phase II, but I really just don't think it's going to matter.

My wife goes to a small yoga studio. A small business owned by one guy. I promise you there is a big difference between 25% occupancy and 50% occupancy for him.

I honestly do not understand the thought process that says "it wouldn't make a difference to these businesses anyway.." Let them decide! They are each keenly aware of whether its worth it to reopen or not at 25%, 50% or whatever.
 

St. Widge

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My wife goes to a small yoga studio. A small business owned by one guy. I promise you there is a big difference between 25% occupancy and 50% occupancy for him.

I honestly do not understand the thought process that says "it wouldn't make a difference to these businesses anyway.." Let them decide! They are each keenly aware of whether its worth it to reopen or not at 25%, 50% or whatever.
I get that on the micro level it makes a difference and that's why I'm okay with moving to Phase II at this point. But, I'm not sure it will make much difference on a macro level to the Orleans Parish economy. And being able to have 50% occupancy isn't going to help that guy if less than 25% want to show up anyway.

But, like I said, sure let him open at 50% occupancy. He'll either make money or he won't. I just don't think the odds are very good that he will and that will be due to the pandemic, not the decease in the occupancy he is allowed.
 

Brennan77

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I'm not trying to pick a fight here. I have always respected your point of view. We don't always agree, but I think you're a smart guy and on the whole I find you to be objective and level headed. So, my good faith question to you is what is the solution? Do we just go in lock step with what the State does? Do we go faster than the State? How do we balance trying to bring back the economy with not killing too many people? And how do we convince people to come to New Orleans and spend their money in the middle of a pandemic?

And, I'm going to be up front here, I have a lot more sympathy for arguments wanting to take more risks with COVID to make sure that people can make a living, than for arguments based on people wanting to take more risks with COVID to stop being inconvenience by this whole thing. I think balancing risk with making sure people can make a living is a legitimate thing to do. You can do it with inconvenience and people being able to enjoy their lives too, but I think a much lower level of risk is acceptable to accomplish that goal.
Very simple. Right now I would go to Phase 2 with the rest of the state. I would argue we should have gone to Phase 2 sooner than the rest of the state given that we have performed as well or better than the every other parish in bringing the spread to a very low number, but there is no reason to go slower. So let's get going with everyone else.

Every metric she has publicly cited (less than 50 new cases per day, etc.) were met no later than May 10 and sooner in some cases. We've got weeks and weeks of data that supports going to Phase 2. And if it blows up, you can go back to Phase 1, which is part of the whole design of the plan, and why schools are planning for all types of scenarios. Be flexible and smart (alien concepts around City Hall)

Here is the data I am looking at to support my position - it comes from the City.



As for the reasons why, its all of the above. No I don't expect a rush of tourists but it will be more than zero. And while "personal convenience" seems like a low priority item, it's also not zero, especially when our citizens just go to JP to get done what they need, which means keeping Orleans businesses closed to Orleans residents. It's just dumber than can be.

And then there is the playgrounds and parks issue, which I believe everyone here is familiar with, so I will refrain from further comment.
I can't keep up with this thread due to personal demands right now. I've literally got maybe 30 minutes to myself every two days right now. So I apologize if I'm not able to follow up as I'd like.

What I've been saying for weeks is holding true today. The plan was to 'flatten the curve' so that our medical services could avoid being overwhelmed. They were never overwhelmed and have been twiddling their thumbs for weeks now. But the reasoning changed very shortly after the initial lockdown to something very different. It doesn't matter what the data says today. Politicians like Cantrell aren't going by data. They are going by an unreasonable expectation that we should be made completely 'safe'. That will literally never happen even if we have a vaccine. We've painted ourselves into a corner by expecting that we should be able to proceed with zero risks. New Orleans is toast.

I know everyone thinks I'm just here to birch about the playground and in some ways I am. It's important and the restrictions that continues to be placed on them are indicative of an overbearing government that has lost its sense of reality. But my real personal concern is about the local economy. My job/industry doesn't exist right now. It vanished over night. Nearly everyone I work with is either out of a job altogether or is hanging by a thread. That extends to thousands of people. Sure, we know that we were in for a bad summer even if things opened again. But it'd be the perfect time for the city to dip their toes back into the water. A typically slow time of year with even fewer tourists/conventions is the perfect opportunity to get back on track in anticipation for the fall. So to not even have a chance at all is really disheartening, especially when that decision is based on false and unrealistic premises. The short of it is that my time as a resident of New Orleans may soon be coming to an end. I was waiting for this news to indicate what the summer might look like. It forking sucks and I just can't see a reasonable justification for it.
 
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superchuck500

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This is interesting - College of Charleston (12k undergrads) is planning for possible Covid resurgence in the fall by eliminating fall break and ending in-person classes before Thanksgiving. I wonder if others will do this.

 

Mr. Sparkle

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This is interesting - College of Charleston (12k undergrads) is planning for possible Covid resurgence in the fall by eliminating fall break and ending in-person classes before Thanksgiving. I wonder if others will do this.

Notre Dame and UVA are planning the same - I think it will be a very popular model. They realize they can't charge $70K for zoom.
 

St. Widge

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Notre Dame and UVA are planning the same - I think it will be a very popular model. They realize they can't charge $70K for zoom.
Even LSU is planning on having students back on Campus for the Fall Semester. But, I haven't seen any plan to have classes end before any anticipated second wave of COVID in the Fall.
 

Mr. Sparkle

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But it'd be the perfect time for the city to dip their toes back into the proverbial water. A typically slow time of year with even fewer tourists/conventions is the perfect opportunity to get back on track in anticipation for the fall. So to not even have a chance at all is really disheartening, especially when that decision is based on false and unrealistic premises. The short of it is that my time as a resident of New Orleans may soon be coming to an end. I was waiting for this news to indicate what the summer might look like. It forking sucks and I just can't see a reasonable justification for it.
This. I don't care about the macro economy right now. I care about my friends and their businesses, and the local businesses that we support. If we give them some room to operate the macro will take care of itself.
 

guidomerkinsrules

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My wife goes to a small yoga studio. A small business owned by one guy. I promise you there is a big difference between 25% occupancy and 50% occupancy for him.

I honestly do not understand the thought process that says "it wouldn't make a difference to these businesses anyway.." Let them decide! They are each keenly aware of whether its worth it to reopen or not at 25%, 50% or whatever.
it should be noted continuously and loudly that this is only a discussion/disagreement bc the federal government is not doing it's job to facilitate this crisis
your wife's yoga studio owner should not be forced into this dilemma
 

Brennan77

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I get that on the micro level it makes a difference and that's why I'm okay with moving to Phase II at this point. But, I'm not sure it will make much difference on a macro level to the Orleans Parish economy. And being able to have 50% occupancy isn't going to help that guy if less than 25% want to show up anyway.

But, like I said, sure let him open at 50% occupancy. He'll either make money or he won't. I just don't think the odds are very good that he will and that will be due to the pandemic, not the decease in the occupancy he is allowed.
This is a very weak argument. For a LOT of businesses, as in most of my customers, 50% is the difference between opening the doors or keeping their employees at home. They were all waiting for this to at least fight and scrap for what they could. Maybe it still wouldn't have worked out but it's a hell of a lot better than not trying at all. The mayor has lost it. She's lazily hiding behind a vague notion of 'science' because she won't/can't let herself (or us) out of this faux safety zone.
 

Mr. Sparkle

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it should be noted continuously and loudly that this is only a discussion/disagreement bc the federal government is not doing it's job to facilitate this crisis
your wife's yoga studio owner should not be forced into this dilemma
Yes and no. The federal guidance on what to do here is very clear (Phase 1 vs Phase 2 vs Phase 3). It's just that LaToya's not following it.


She's got some magic number of cases in her head and wont tell us what it is.
 

St. Widge

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This is a very weak argument. For a LOT of businesses, as in most of my customers, 50% is the difference between opening the doors or keeping their employees at home. They were all waiting for this to at least fight and scrap for what they could. Maybe it still wouldn't have worked out but it's a hell of a lot better than not trying at all. The mayor has lost it. She's lazily hiding behind a vague notion of 'science' because she won't/can't let herself (or us) out of this faux safety zone.
I think you misunderstand my point. I'm not arguing we shouldn't move to Phase II.

I agree that 50% can make the difference between a business surviving and even 25% could. But it will be very business specific. Which is worth doing for the people it helps stay in business and keep people employed. But we could allow 100% occupancy and I still don't think it will matter for the New Orleas economy as a whole, because people don't want to go out in public to do things.

Moreover, I'm not saying we shouldn't be in Phase II. But, you can't force people to go out and spend money if they don't have it or if they don't want to risk getting/spreading COVID. And, based on the numbers from Open Table, it looks like people don't really want to go out spending money and increasing their own/others risk while doing things like dining out.
 
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