COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (28 Viewers)

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Eeyore

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UPDATED TRACKER LINKS:





It shouldn't be a big deal but with a large number of people unable to afford healthcare, and the anti vax crowd growing there's a small chance that this could be interesting.
 
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St. Widge

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Yes and no. The federal guidance on what to do here is very clear (Phase 1 vs Phase 2 vs Phase 3). It's just that LaToya's not following it.


She's got some magic number of cases in her head and wont tell us what it is.

Frankly, the language of the Phase plan is pretty vague and leaves a lot of room for interpretation which is likely what the Mayor is using to try to justify what she is doing. The CDC had further guidance and specifics on the Phase plan and what should be required to move up phases. But someone prohibited the CDC from releasing that information. It would be a lot easier to argue with the Mayor if we had those CDC guidelines so she could be show the specific ways in which we have reached the goals.
 

Mr. Sparkle

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Frankly, the language of the Phase plan is pretty vague and leaves a lot of room for interpretation which is likely what the Mayor is using to try to justify what she is doing. The CDC had further guidance and specifics on the Phase plan and what should be required to move up phases. But someone prohibited the CDC from releasing that information. It would be a lot easier to argue with the Mayor if we had those CDC guidelines so she could be show the specific ways in which we have reached the goals.
I think you are thinking of the draft reopening guidance for businesses, churches, schools, etc., that Trump quashed. I've seen a copy - it does not address when to go to Phase 2, just what entities should do once there.

I'm pretty sure the Phase to Phase guidance is what I linked above - its not hard - if you meet the gating criteria (availability of testing/beds/tracing), go to Phase I. If Phase I does not lead to a spike and you can still meet the gating criteria, go to Phase II. Repeat for Phase III

If there is some double secret standard that LaToya has, she should share it. Because up until now she and all the official City outlets have used their "dashboard" (linked in my post above) as their stated metrics for making these calls.
 

Brennan77

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I think you misunderstand my point. I'm not arguing we shouldn't move to Phase II.

I agree that 50% can make the difference between a business surviving and even 25% could. But it will be very business specific. Which is worth doing for the people it helps stay in business and keep people employed. But we could allow 100% occupancy and I still don't think it will matter for the New Orleas economy as a whole, because people don't want to go out in public to do things.

Moreover, I'm not saying we shouldn't be in Phase II. But, you can't force people to go out and spend money if they don't have it or if they don't want to risk getting/spreading COVID. And, based on the numbers from Open Table, it looks like people don't really want to go out spending money and increasing their own/others risk while doing things like dining out.
I get your point but I think you're missing mine. You're basically arguing from a position of utilitarian ethics. If the results are the same the means don't matter. That's the opposite of the way I see things. If the New Orleans economy fails, I'd rather see it fail while having a shot than not at all. And if it has to be 'not at all' I'd rather it be based on sound reasoning and observation while favoring personal liberties at every opportunity. In other words, I'd rather go down fighting than stay home at the dubious order of Cantrell.
 

St. Widge

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I think you are thinking of the draft reopening guidance for businesses, churches, schools, etc., that Trump quashed. I've seen a copy - it does not address when to go to Phase 2, just what entities should do once there.

I'm pretty sure the Phase to Phase guidance is what I linked above - its not hard - if you meet the gating criteria (availability of testing/beds/tracing), go to Phase I. If Phase I does not lead to a spike and you can still meet the gating criteria, go to Phase II. Repeat for Phase III

If there is some double secret standard that LaToya has, she should share it. Because up until now she and all the official City outlets have used their "dashboard" (linked in my post above) as their stated metrics for making these calls.
Yeah, I haven't seen the document. I've only seen information that there was stuff they were not allowed to release. So I'll trust that you are right that it doesn't give much more guidance. I do think the Phase plan is a little vague in that it doesn't provide specific numbers for goal, but I do agree that if LaToya has specific numbers in mind, she should share them.
 

St. Widge

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I get your point but I think you're missing mine. You're basically arguing from a position of utilitarian ethics. If the results are the same the means don't matter. That's the opposite of the way I see things. If the New Orleans economy fails, I'd rather see it fail while having a shot than not at all. And if it has to be 'not at all' I'd rather it be based on sound reasoning and observation while favoring personal liberties at every opportunity. In other words, I'd rather go down fighting than stay home at the dubious order of Cantrell.
I really don't think we disagree at this point, except I don't really care enough about LaToya to be mad at her. I did support the Stay at Home Order and staying in Phase I longer than you wanted. And, I still think that was the correct decision. But, things have obviously changed with the numbers and we have had an opportunity to see what a Phase I opening would do to them. So, I think it's likely time to move to Phase II.

I'm not arguing that we should stay where we are since it won't make any difference any way and we might as well save lives if we can't save the economy based on Utilitarian ethics. I'm saying that we should try to save the economy by going to Phase II. Even if it doesn't save the entire economy, it will at least buy time to try to expand the economy to new sectors and at least allow some people to save their businesses and have jobs. But, that I don't think that it will be enough to actually save the economy even if we were 100% open because people don't have the money to spend, don't want to go out, and a tourist based economy reliant on travel and tourists won't fare well during a pandemic.

So, maybe this will make it clear. I agree with you that we are in a lot of trouble. I just don't think moving to Phase II or III will change that, but sure, go ahead and try. But, do it with the realization that it may not help on a macro level and that it may result in having to go back to Phase I or Stay at Home, if the death count gets too high or the hospitals do get overwhelmed.

The answer in the long term is going to be to diversify the economy into things that can continue to operate without tourists. Which is something that has been tried for a long time, but now is the time to double those efforts.
 
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Goatman Saint

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We're at a mid-season filler episode.
Pretty much. Just waiting to see what all the beach going, rioting and partying is going to lead to. After talking to my principal whose mom was in the hospital 5 weeks and the rest of her family who had Covid, I’m perfectly fine sitting in my backyard and wearing a mask.
 

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Pretty much. Just waiting to see what all the beach going, rioting and partying is going to lead to. After talking to my principal whose mom was in the hospital 5 weeks and the rest of her family who had Covid, I’m perfectly fine sitting in my backyard and wearing a mask.
Yeah, you want be catching me out for anything other than food, medicine, or work. All with a mask on. I do think New Orleans is doing great right now, but I don't really see how it won't come back strong within a month or so. Hope I'm wrong.
 

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I think you are thinking of the draft reopening guidance for businesses, churches, schools, etc., that Trump quashed. I've seen a copy - it does not address when to go to Phase 2, just what entities should do once there.

I'm pretty sure the Phase to Phase guidance is what I linked above - its not hard - if you meet the gating criteria (availability of testing/beds/tracing), go to Phase I. If Phase I does not lead to a spike and you can still meet the gating criteria, go to Phase II. Repeat for Phase III

If there is some double secret standard that LaToya has, she should share it. Because up until now she and all the official City outlets have used their "dashboard" (linked in my post above) as their stated metrics for making these calls.
It does seem that New Orleans is much better on the gating criteria than many places that have eased earlier - they never really had the downward trajectory to start with. LA has a clear top and down slope.

I think she thinks that New Orleans has a much higher population density than most of the south and perhaps the community more at-risk and wants to be careful. Too much perhaps.
 

bonnjer

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