COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (30 Viewers)

[Sun Wukong]

Again, the US as a whole has been going down, not spiking, which is what I was getting at.

You're making a mistake in looking at national numbers. New York declining majorly in cases from the peak creates the artificial impression that things are declining overall. On a state by state basis most states are either in a holding pattern (not declining) or spiking. Only a small number are actually declining.

 

[efil4stnias]

Again, the US as a whole has been going down, not spiking, which is what I was getting at.

you cant look at the WHOLE of the US in terms of numbers. If they arent testing as many in NYC then those numbers will be lower, affecting the overall numbers of the US. Same for other parts of the US.

The spikes remain - thats indisputable as evidenced by Texas, Arizona and FL numbers. And if infected folks travel to other cities and spread, with the 2 week window for symptoms, any number of cities could see a spike in weeks to come.

Thats the real issue with COVID - the incubation period.

 

[DaveXA]

I am kind of confused. All I see the last couple of days are article headlines that cases are spiking in the US. That seems disingenuous. While certain states are definitely seeing spikes, the overall numbers show a decline for the country as a whole. Last month we had days of 2500+ deaths in one day. We are almost a week of sub 1000 death days. On May 1st we had 36000 cases. With the exception of 1 day, it has been a week and a half since we even topped 25000.


Am I seeing something wrong?
[/QU

Again, the US as a whole has been going down, not spiking, which is what I was getting at.

The virus is spiking in some areas and coming down in others. Arizona is getting hit really hard and it's becoming a real issue in other states. This isn't going away, and it remains a significant health issue everywhere. We can't take this lightly.

 

[JLaneSaints]

The virus is spiking in some areas and coming down in others. Arizona is getting hit really hard and it's becoming a real issue in other states. This isn't going away, and it remains a significant health issue everywhere. We can't take this lightly.

I wasn't proposing taking it lightly. I was just curious about the media's spin on it. It's something I have been struggling with. In Indiana, we started opening up on May 4th, and have been going down in cases and deaths ever since. Our ventilator usage is below 5% where it was as high as 13%, and our positive cases per test has falled 6% since we have opened up.

Couple that with other than my kids elearning, we had 3 weeks of curbside only restaurants, Indiana life is pretty much the same as it was before the virus. Making it hard for me to comprehend it otherwise, I fully admit that. I have been going to work every day since the outbreak, and I am a software developer that can 100% work from home. It's been really weird seeing the experiences told by people in other places.

 

[Eeyore]

Here's where some of the ppp money went.

Members of Congress took small-business loans — and the full extent is unknown

Some GOP lawmakers who benefited from the Paycheck Protection Program also opposed legislation requiring lending transparency.

www.politico.com

 

[Eeyore]

I wasn't proposing taking it lightly. I was just curious about the media's spin on it. It's something I have been struggling with. In Indiana, we started opening up on March 23rd, and have been going down in cases and deaths ever since. Our ventilator usage is below 5% where it was as high as 13%, and our positive cases per test has falled 6% since we have opened up.

Couple that with other than my kids elearning, we had 3 weeks of curbside only restaurants, Indiana life is pretty much the same as it was before the virus. Making it hard for me to comprehend it otherwise, I fully admit that. I have been going to work every day since the outbreak, and I am a software developer that can 100% work from home. It's been really weird seeing the experiences told by people in other places.

If you look at the counties in The People's Republic of Indianastan, you'll see that most of the state has been pretty clean. The heavily populated counties have been hit. I live in Lake which borders Chicago. We opened up with the rest of the state, but we shouldn't have.

 

[JLaneSaints]

If you look at the counties in The People's Republic of Indianastan, you'll see that most of the state has been pretty clean. The heavily populated counties have been hit. I live in Lake which borders Chicago. We opened up with the rest of the state, but we shouldn't have.

I'm in Montgomery. We havn't had a death in a week, and only about 1 case a day despite a total county population of close to 20,000. Again, other than schools and restaurants (which are now open), you would have never have known there was even a virus.

Out of our 290 or so cases, over half is just one nursing home alone. So the general population of our county barely got anything. And I know for a fact 17 of our 19 deaths were from that nursing home, if not all 19

 

[Eeyore]

I'm in Montgomery. We havn't had a death in a week, and only about 1 case a day despite a total county population of close to 20,000. Again, other than schools and restaurants (which are now open), you would have never have known there was even a virus.

Out of our 290 or so cases, over half is just one nursing home alone. So the general population of our county barely got anything. And I know for a fact 17 of our 19 deaths were from that nursing home, if not all 19

They had to shut it all down because, if they didn't, the people from the hard hit counties would have driven to counties like yours and spread it. That's why Lake County was hit hard. People here work in Cook County Illinois and people in Cook County shop in Lake County Indiana. Had they not shut down all of Indiana counties like yours might have been hit hard. I don't know if people would drive two counties over from Marion for haircuts, restaurants, etc, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[JLaneSaints]

They had to shut it all down because, if they didn't, the people from the hard hit counties would have driven to counties like yours and spread it. That's why Lake County was hit hard. People here work in Cook County Illinois and people in Cook County shop in Lake County Indiana. Had they not shut down all of Indiana counties like yours might have been hit hard. I don't know if people would drive two counties over from Marion for haircuts, restaurants, etc, but it wouldn't surprise me.

To be fair, that's why I was surprised they opened all of us save for Marion, and Cass. I kept thinking, we live 40 minutes from Indy. What is stopping someone that first week from driving to one of our restaurants? Obviously nothing came of it, but still. I was fine waiting another week to be lockstep in with Marion, but oh well, dodged a bullet I guess.

 

[superchuck500]

you cant look at the WHOLE of the US in terms of numbers. If they arent testing as many in NYC then those numbers will be lower, affecting the overall numbers of the US. Same for other parts of the US.

The spikes remain - thats indisputable as evidenced by Texas, Arizona and FL numbers. And if infected folks travel to other cities and spread, with the 2 week window for symptoms, any number of cities could see a spike in weeks to come.

Thats the real issue with COVID - the incubation period.

Agree - using nationwide numbers isn't really that useful - if there are spiking new case counts in multiple areas across the US (and there are) it's concerning even if the total case counts are fairly flat. Particularly as people are moving around more, spiking case counts means the virus is spreading rapidly on those locations, and not only does that mean trouble for those locations, it likely means that increased counts will come in from other areas as well (lagging).

Another thing to note about total case counts nationwide is that the NYC area outbreak was massive in scale due to the total population and population density there. You may have 10 other smaller areas with spikes on a per capita basis that are quite high . . . but the raw count won't appear that worrisome if you simply reference overall numbers in late March or April that were driven by the New York area outbreak.

 

[superchuck500]

Miami putting the brakes on reopening. FL hit another new high today with over 2,700 new cases.

Miami, among Florida's most populous cities, won't move into the next phase of reopening because of concern over rising COVID-19 cases, Mayor Francis Suarez announced at a Monday news conference.

Although the majority of the state is in Phase 2 of reopening, rising new coronavirus cases may put a damper on residents' new freedom.

Florida continues to see new coronavirus cases rise in high numbers

Although the majority of Florida is in Phase 2 of reopening, rising new coronavirus cases in the state could potentially put a damper on residents' new freedom.

abcnews.go.com

 

[St. Widge]

 

[Complex Kid]

 

[Saint_Ward]

I am kind of confused. All I see the last couple of days are article headlines that cases are spiking in the US. That seems disingenuous. While certain states are definitely seeing spikes, the overall numbers show a decline for the country as a whole. Last month we had days of 2500+ deaths in one day. We are almost a week of sub 1000 death days. On May 1st we had 36000 cases. With the exception of 1 day, it has been a week and a half since we even topped 25000.


Am I seeing something wrong?

NYC was so huge that their spike masked the rest of the country. With NYC backing down, the overall country map is going down (actually, I'd say it has flattened out, which is not good), even though a lot of states are trending up. Basically, the whole country didn't deal with this at the exact same time, so it's not one wave, it's a bunch of waves at different spots.

I posted a series of charts the other day showing each state by state case growth. Which are trending up, which are flat, which are trending down.

This by the NY times does a good job tracking it.

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.

www.nytimes.com

I like to make faces on graphs...sorry, but not sorry.



Hot spots


Increasing states.. Louisiana isn't a big concern to me. Same with a few others. Texas, NC, Arizona, TN, never seemed to do much to slow it down. Florida was on the right rack, then looks like we're stupid again. I just talked with a coworker who said the bars and restaurants are acting like it's normal time. I haven't' been by any.



Look at the states decreasing.. they had huge numbers.. NY, NJ, ILL, Mass, etc. I think CA should be in the first group. Might techically be within the "mostly the same" criteria, but clearly they've been on an upward trajectory.

Hundreds of thousands of cases traced to clusters
Coronavirus outbreaks have been traced to funerals, fast food restaurants, cruise ships and Navy vessels. But most of the biggest known clusters have been in nursing homes, food processing plants and correctional facilities, all places where people are packed in close quarters with little opportunity for social distancing.

Coronavirus cases have been reported in more than 12,200 nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, according to data collected by The New York Times from states, counties and facilities themselves. More than 260,000 residents and employees have been infected in those homes, and more than 48,000 have died. That means more than 40 percent of deaths from the virus in the United States have been tied to nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

“This disease creates the potential for a perfect storm in a long-term care facility — large groups of vulnerable people living together and a highly transmissible virus that may not cause symptoms in those who care for them,” said Dr. Daniel Rusyniak, the chief medical officer for Indiana’s state social services agency.

In American jails and prisons, at least 67,000 people have been infected and at least 607 inmates and workers have died. During interviews with more than two dozen inmates across the country, many said they were frightened and frustrated by the response to their plight.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Miami putting the brakes on reopening. FL hit another new high today with over 2,700 new cases.

Florida continues to see new coronavirus cases rise in high numbers

Although the majority of Florida is in Phase 2 of reopening, rising new coronavirus cases in the state could potentially put a damper on residents' new freedom.

abcnews.go.com

Good. A number of people are showing they can't be trusted.