Crazy downfield passing stat on Stafford vs. Brees (2 Viewers)

[Stalwart385]

I really need completion percentage on those throws for that to mean much. Obviously, Stafford has a big arm to be less worried about chunking it down there, but Brees was highly successful on the attempts he did make for quite a while.

Brees was very smart and knew his limitations. He picked his shots and would actually get graded as the most accurate deep ball thrower even though the volume was low.

 

[mr.t]

Would you mind posting their crazy W/L records as starters?

Can you imagine how many more playoff victories we would have had with a QB throwing downfield instead of 10 or 15 yards. Winston threw one.

 

[mr.t]

I really need completion percentage on those throws for that to mean much. Obviously, Stafford has a big arm to be less worried about chunking it down there, but Brees was highly successful on the attempts he did make for quite a while.

Brees was very smart and knew his limitations. He picked his shots and would actually get graded as the most accurate deep ball thrower even though the volume was low.

He knew his limitations just like the TB defense knew them this year.

 

[mr.t]

I don’t think we will lose many players because of the cap. Hendrickson is probably the most likely. And if he goes, we will have a 3rd 3rd round pick next year.

We also have four picks in the first three rounds this year.

How do you figure that ?

 

[Saint Spud]

I really need completion percentage on those throws for that to mean much. Obviously, Stafford has a big arm to be less worried about chunking it down there, but Brees was highly successful on the attempts he did make for quite a while.

Brees was very smart and knew his limitations. He picked his shots and would actually get graded as the most accurate deep ball thrower even though the volume was low.

You’re missing it. The threat of the explosive play over the top opens up everything else underneath.

NFL players are bigger, faster and stronger than ever. Brees could be the smartest QB in NFL history and it wouldn’t matter if teams could play 10 at the line and crash downhill (like Tampa did in the second half last weekend).

That’s oversimplifying it a bit. But think of it like how a running game opens up the passing game. If defenders have to hesitate for just a second because of the threat of one thing, it makes them less effective chasing down something else.

We haven’t had that element for way too long. And when everything got tighter in the playoffs, we paid for it. Look at the four teams who played yesterday, they ALL had deep-ball explosive ability.

 

[Saint Spud]

How do you figure that ?

Because there have been quite a few articles explaining how we can easily navigate this cap situation.

Don’t pay attention to National people who don’t follow how the Saints operate.

 

[Stalwart385]

You’re missing it. The threat of the explosive play over the top opens up everything else underneath.

NFL players are bigger, faster and stronger than ever. Brees could be the smartest QB in NFL history and it wouldn’t matter if teams could play 10 at the line and crash downhill (like Tampa did in the second half last weekend).

That’s oversimplifying it a bit. But think of it like how a running game opens up the passing game. If defenders have to hesitate for just a second because of the threat of one thing, it makes them less effective chasing down something else.

We haven’t had that element for way too long. And when everything got tighter in the playoffs, we paid for it. Look at the four teams who played yesterday, they ALL had deep-ball explosive ability.

You make it sound like he didn't throw it downfield. If he threw it half as many times and was twice as successful what does it matter.

Granted it tapered off more each year but this stat goes back 4 years. I'm not going to be excited because a guy attempts a bunch of downfield passes. He needs to be completing them.

 

[Stalwart385]

He knew his limitations just like the TB defense knew them this year.

And like the last 10 times we played Tampa they had no clue. Drew's throwing bad picks was uncharacteristic. Not because he didn't like throwing it 25 yards down the field.

 

[Saint Spud]

You make it sound like he didn't throw it downfield. If he threw it half as many times and was twice as successful what does it matter.

Granted it tapered off more each year but I'm not going to be excited because a guy attempts a bunch of downfield passes. He needs to be completing them.

“Per Pro Football Focus, Stafford completed 28 of 67 attempts of 20 or more air yards for 936 yards, seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 123.8. Only Kyler Murray (128.9) had a higher passer rating on deep throws, and Stafford and Murray were the only quarterbacks with no interceptions on those types of throws.”

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touchdownwire.usatoday.com

Lions QB Matthew Stafford Is King of the League in Deep Pass Percentage

Lions QB Matthew Stafford is slinging the pigskin deep at the highest rate in the NFL

www.si.com

 

[Saint Spud]

And like the last 10 times we played Tampa they had no clue. Drew's throwing bad picks was uncharacteristic. Not because he didn't like throwing it 25 yards down the field.

Again, everything is different in the playoffs. Same thing happened against Minnesota last year.

 

[Stalwart385]

“Per Pro Football Focus, Stafford completed 28 of 67 attempts of 20 or more air yards for 936 yards, seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 123.8. Only Kyler Murray (128.9) had a higher passer rating on deep throws, and Stafford and Murray were the only quarterbacks with no interceptions on those types of throws.”

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The Saturday news that Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has agreed with the team to part ways probably shocked the football world. But when you consider it from this perspective, perhaps it&#8217…

touchdownwire.usatoday.com

Lions QB Matthew Stafford Is King of the League in Deep Pass Percentage

Lions QB Matthew Stafford is slinging the pigskin deep at the highest rate in the NFL

www.si.com

And that's why I said attempt don't mean much. You need to know how he did.

According to that in 2019 he was ranked 16th in the league on deep passing. He did it a ton but wasn't that successful. I believe that was the year when Brees was the #1 in deep passing efficiency.

In 2021 he was the best in the league.

So there are some good signs. But as I said, just saying he threw it more often is meaningless to me.

 

[Stalwart385]

Again, everything is different in the playoffs. Same thing happened against Minnesota last year.

I don't link Drew having a bad game and no longer being able to put the team on his back to 25 yard passes. He threw them when they were open and it was never very often. The real problem is him not hitting tight window and well timed throws when he needed to which is what he made a living on. He was erratic or the WR were too unpredictable. Either way, he just made bad throws he doesn't normally make. You can blame that on what you want but I'm not blaming it on deep passing.

 

[Saint Spud]

And that's why I said attempt don't mean much. You need to know how he did.

According to that in 2019 he was ranked 16th in the league on deep passing. He did it a ton but wasn't that successful. I believe that was the year when Brees was the #1 in deep passing efficiency.

In 2021 he was the best in the league.

So there are some good signs. But as I said just saying he threw it more often is meaningless to me.

He was literally the second most effective deep ball thrower in the league last season playing for a dumpster fire of a franchise. The fact he was even 16th the year before is an accomplishment.

Teams don’t throw deep if they can’t do it successfully. So the attempts do matter quite a bit as well.

 

[Saint Spud]

I don't link Drew having a bad game and no longer being able to but the team on his back to 25 yard passes. He threw them when they were open and it was never that often. The real problem is him not hitting tight window throws when he needed to which is what he made a living on. He was erratic or the WR were too unpredictable. Either way, he just made bad throws he doesn't normally make. You can blame that on what you want but I'm not blaming it on deep passing.

He did not throw them when they were open. Not “NFL open.” There are a ton of film studies showing him hesitating instead of taking the deep read.

He used to throw guys open deep down the seam. He used to destroy single coverage down the field. His inability to do that made our offense way too limited in big games and the playoffs. Teams gambled knowing that the reward outweighed the risk by a great deal.

 

[Stalwart385]

He did not throw them when they were open. Not “NFL open.” There are a ton of film studies showing him hesitating instead of taking the deep read.

He used to throw guys open deep down the seam. He used to destroy single coverage down the field. His inability to do that made our offense way too limited in big games and the playoffs. Teams gambled knowing that the reward outweighed the risk by a great deal.

I don't see this as some kind of deep pass argument. Of course, he wasn't throwing it like when he was 30 but he was very successful over the last 4 years. That success came from timing, accuracy and anticipation. What stands out to me in the Tampa and Vikings games were those things were off. Particularly in the Tampa game, he just looked erratic and had no idea where the receivers were.