Dak turns down offer from Cowboys, (reportedly) wants 40m a year (1 Viewer)

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Okay lets not make more of what we saw yesterday from Dak. The Giants have a pretty bad defense. The guy is not worth $30 million and definitely not $40 a year but Jerry Jones is in desperate mode so he'll probably get $35 mil a year. What other options does he have at QB.
 
superchuck500 said:
I'm not really sure what an arbitrary label like 'elite' means for a quarterback's contract value. I think what matters is what the team believes the QB can do for them. If the team believes the QB will be reliable to regularly compete in all games, regularly vie for a division title (barring other contingencies), and be a source of strength and competitiveness in the playoffs, that QB is going to be worth top dollar in the market. Because your choice is to sign the QB at the market top dollar or expose the QB to free agency - and if he leaves you're back at square one.

If the team doesn't believe those things, but rather thinks something lesser of the QB - for example, that he can't compete for a divisional title without a better than average defense, then the value comes down.

I'm not saying Dak is all of those things. I'm just saying what I think the analysis looks like.
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yeah there is no doubt from a team valuation perspective, thats the route for sure. What does he mean to them? now and going fwd. If that valuation proves to be $30mm/yr, thats what they will ultimately pay.

But you have left out the agent negotiation part. In that, the label in fact carries much value. If the agent is able to convince them he is "elite" then that certainly factors into negotiations.

at the end of the day, the team shoots low, agent high and they meet somewhere in middle.
 
So Dak is now 51 of 62 (82%), 674 yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT, 142.9 rating (thanks Greg) and a 96.2 QBR in two games of 2019.

 
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superchuck500 said:
Yep, I pulled the QBR, should have realized those numbers would be way higher than 96.
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That stupid ESPN rating number needs to go away. No one actually likes it, they're the only ones that think it's good and everyone mistakenly posts it as the actual QBR. No knock on you. I just hate that they think they're special enough to change something that's been around forever and takes totally arbitrary things into account, unlike the 158.3 perfection number.
 
BLUEGRASS SAINT said:
How about do something like win a SB before asking for that ridiculous amount of money. The ELITE QB’s in the league do not make $40m a year. What have you done to deserve that amount Dak??
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he is more valuable and does more then elliot does so this is the market JJ set it to be
 
webster63 said:
he is more valuable and does more then elliot does
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I'd pump my brakes on that. Elliot is what makes that offense run.

The Cowboys are...
  • 5-0 when Elliott runs for 150+ yards
  • 9-1 when Elliott runs for 125+ yards
  • 17-3 when Elliott runs for 100+ yards
  • 29-6 when Elliott runs for 75+ yards
  • 1-6 when Elliott runs for less than < 75 yards
  • 20-3 when Elliott has at least 1 rushing TD
  • 7-0 when Elliott has 2 rushing TD's

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are...
  • 7-9 when Prescott has 34+ attempts
  • 3-7 when Prescott has 60% completion or lower
  • 9-8 when Prescott has less than 200 yards passing
  • 16-6 when Prescott has 19 or fewer completions
If the team is winning nearly the same amount of games as they're losing when the QB has less than 200 passing yards, or has a 3:1 winning record when the QB is completing less than 20 passes per game, it isn't the QB that's making that offense run. It's that RB and that defense.
 
BLUEGRASS SAINT said:
How about do something like win a SB before asking for that ridiculous amount of money. The ELITE QB’s in the league do not make $40m a year. What have you done to deserve that amount Dak??
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Doesn't really work that way any more. It's basically if you're a good QB and next in line, you get more than the last QB that signed.
 
Who cares? These GM’s are so savvy with the cap nowadays, the money isn’t the hindrance it used to be. Not to mention there’s a new TV deal coming up which is going to raise the cap way more so whatever the hit is, it won’t be the same percentage it is when he signs it. I’d be willing to bet, that’s one of the points of the negotiations.
 
Alan12 said:
I'd pump my brakes on that. Elliot is what makes that offense run.

The Cowboys are...
  • 5-0 when Elliott runs for 150+ yards
  • 9-1 when Elliott runs for 125+ yards
  • 17-3 when Elliott runs for 100+ yards
  • 29-6 when Elliott runs for 75+ yards
  • 1-6 when Elliott runs for less than < 75 yards
  • 20-3 when Elliott has at least 1 rushing TD
  • 7-0 when Elliott has 2 rushing TD's

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are...
  • 7-9 when Prescott has 34+ attempts
  • 3-7 when Prescott has 60% completion or lower
  • 9-8 when Prescott has less than 200 yards passing
  • 16-6 when Prescott has 19 or fewer completions
If the team is winning nearly the same amount of games as they're losing when the QB has less than 200 passing yards, or has a 3:1 winning record when the QB is completing less than 20 passes per game, it isn't the QB that's making that offense run. It's that RB and that defense.
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All this shows is that teams run the ball when they're winning.

Saints are 13-2 when Mark Ingram has >=100 rush yards
Saints are 25-20 when Drew Brees has <= 200 pass yards

Ergo Mark Ingram is what made the Saints offense run, not Drew Brees...
 
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