Davenport Poll (1 Viewer)

[Plow]

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[los226]

If he has another injury riddled year in 2020, then he clearly wasn’t worth it. If he stays healthy, then yes he was worth it.

 

[State Of Affairs]

I did a lil research... we gave up the 27th pick worth 680 points and the 30th pick worth 620 points. 1300 points is the 10th pick in the draft.

Davenport was top 10 in QB pressures this year before going down. VERY unlikely to find a guy like that AND a monster vs the run at pick 27 or 30. The reason the Saints were able to get him so late was because he was so raw.

The injuries have been very unfortunate but the Saints didn’t over pay for a disruptive defensive end. If it were 2 top ten picks, yea, let’s talk but two picks that were practically 2nd round picks for a defensive end who is GREAT vs run, top 10 in QB pressures and just scratching the surface of his potential. I’d do it all day!

 

[State Of Affairs]

If he has another injury riddled year in 2020, then he clearly wasn’t worth it. If he stays healthy, then yes he was worth it.

Agreed that the injuries have a dark cloud of question over him

 

[Snakehead]

This is from a thread a month ago and the thread further down on front page on the same topic. It is from a paid site.

Saints Film Room: Has Marcus Davenport been worth two first-round draft picks?

Comparing the defensive end's production to the highest-drafted edge rushers in a 10-year draft study.

theathletic.com

Here are some of the key notes from the study:

Top 10 picks

• Averaged 4.40 sacks in Year 1. Averaged 7.62 sacks in year 2. Averaged 4.97 sacks in Year 3.
• The 2011 class really disrupted the balance here. Von Miller only played nine games in Year 3 and had five sacks, down from 18.5 the year prior. Aldon Smith went from 19.5 to 8.5 Year 2 to Year 3. All of these things affected the dynamic of Year 3 results vs. Year 2 for Top 10s.

First-rounders (11-32)

• Averaged 3.76 Sacks in Year 1. Averaged 5.18 sacks in Year 2. Averaged 5.66 sacks in Year 3.
• There seems to be a lot more “boom or bust” in the Top 10 and more consistency in the later parts of the first round. On average, we see a continual progression, much like how Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan developed (1->8->12.5)

Second-rounders (33-64)

• Averaged 2.91 sacks in Year 1. Averaged 3.82 sacks in Year 2. Averaged 4.24 sacks in Year 3.

Of 16 top-10 selections, seven made the Pro Bowl within their first three years and four were voted All-Pro. Four of these players recorded 3.5 sacks or fewer in all of their first 3 years. Of 36 first-round selection: Seven made the Pro-Bowl within their first three years and four were voted All-Pro.

For reference, here is where Davenport stands in Year 2 among his direct peers:

• 4.5 Sacks in year 1. 6 sacks in year 2 (through 12 games).
  • Tied for 17th in the NFL in total pressures with 49, per Pro Football Focus
  • Leads all players from the 2018 draft class in pressures
  • Leads all players from the 2018 draft class in forced fumbles
  • Leads all players from the 2018 draft class in QB hits
  • Second among players from the 2018 draft class in sacks

I promise, we’ll discontinue the nerdy number crunching and get into the film breakdown here in a second (pushes glasses back up nose, adjusts pocket protector).

Essentially what this study has shown us is even if we take the value of Davenport’s draft picks and quantify him as being a “Top 10,” he is still outperforming the averages set by his peers in the 10-year study. If we take his actual draft status at 14 into consideration, he is well ahead of the established curve. Whether he is “two firsts” or just the Saints’ first-round selection of 2018, he is performing at or above the average. Not bad for a developmental draft pick.

 

[dutar76]

Agreed that the injuries have a dark cloud of question over him

I'm not sure that injuries should be factored in. Those could happen to any player. As for what he does on the field and how rare that is? Sure he's getting it done at a high level and edge rushers are usually more miss than hit, even ones that were drafted high.

As for value to the team? After watching the right side of the 49ers' DL torture Cousins all game yesterday and how they pretty much too Dalvin Cook out of the game... I think the wildcard game might have played out way different if we'd have had our blue-chip DE (and DT) on the field.

But that's just my opinion. I'm not one to hold serious injury against a player.

 

[State Of Affairs]

I agree Dutar, because Davenport was catching so much crap early in the season, I went and did some film study and came away with a greater appreciation then I already had.

I was going to add something similar to what you said and suggest that the 3rd option of “jury is still out” really doesn’t make sense. If a 3rd round pick comes in and gets injured in the preseason and NEVER plays again, then it’s a wasted pick. The question is was he worth it and not will he have a long, illustrious career.

Based on what we got for the 27th and 30th picks, I’d say we got a very good value.

I'm not sure that injuries should be factored in. Those could happen to any player. As for what he does on the field and how rare that is? Sure he's getting it done at a high level and edge rushers are usually more miss than hit, even ones that were drafted high.

As for value to the team? After watching the right side of the 49ers' DL torture Cousins all game yesterday and how they pretty much too Dalvin Cook out of the game... I think the wildcard game might have played out way different if we'd have had our blue-chip DE (and DT) on the field.

But that's just my opinion. I'm not one to hold serious injury against a player.

 

[Saint Taysom]

I don’t really have anything concrete to back this up, but from I’ve seen so far, I think Davenport needs to get seriously motivated from a conditioning standpoint. He starts slow because he’s not in shape early in the season. He carries too much weight IMO. If he can really focus on his conditioning, I think it will do wonders for his game and his health.

 

[State Of Affairs]

I don’t really have anything concrete to back this up, but from I’ve seen so far, I think Davenport needs to get seriously motivated from a conditioning standpoint. He starts slow because he’s not in shape early in the season. He carries too much weight IMO. If he can really focus on his conditioning, I think it will do wonders for his game and his health.

I don’t think that’s fair Saint Lat, the stats are above and he’s out performed EVERYONE in his class.

To me, this is all a matter of him starting behind the eight ball with the fans because of the “two first round picks” and was it worth it. Now there is actual data saying he’s playing very well and those not sure are just going to the ole “gut feeling” when everything INCLUDING the eyeball test says he’s doing very well for a 2nd year DE even if he is RAW.

Only thing that would satisfy his detractors is if he had 12 sacks this year. The great run defense means nothing, the top 10 pressures mean nothing, the top 12 QB hits mean nothing. If it’s not a sack, he’s underperforming to many

 

[UFCSaint]

I'm not sure that injuries should be factored in. Those could happen to any player. As for what he does on the field and how rare that is? Sure he's getting it done at a high level and edge rushers are usually more miss than hit, even ones that were drafted high.

As for value to the team? After watching the right side of the 49ers' DL torture Cousins all game yesterday and how they pretty much too Dalvin Cook out of the game... I think the wildcard game might have played out way different if we'd have had our blue-chip DE (and DT) on the field.

But that's just my opinion. I'm not one to hold serious injury against a player.

Injuries should absolutely be factored in. Lots of players with loads of talent ended up being a bust just because they couldn't stay on the field. Jury is still out on Davenport.

 

[sammymvpknight]

Do you mean, is Davenport worth Lamar Jackson and a 2019 1st round pick?

 

[demented]

Yes but you can't say any other pick we would have made with those slots would be injury free either. The bust rate for first round picks due to all factors is still around 50%. The real question is, is it worth giving up pick 27 and 30 to draft a top caliber DE prospect. I'd have to say yes. Especially if he starts immediately. The reason I say this is due to salary cap savings. If you can get a starting caliber DE for ~4 mil a year for 5 years you've saved yourself roughly 12 million per season in salary cap savings. That 12 million can easily replace the 30th pick. In my opinion, all 1st and 2nd round picks should be made with the intention of filling starting vacancies(immediately) at costly positions. Even if the person is just average or subpar, you still save a butt load of money that can be re-purposed to proven veterans.

 

[dutar76]

Injuries should absolutely be factored in. Lots of players with loads of talent ended up being a bust just because they couldn't stay on the field. Jury is still out on Davenport.

Okay, well the player appears to be very good. And he still hasn't peaked. He does need to stay healthy to reach his ceiling, that's for sure. Really hoping this Linsfrac injury doesn't de-rail him. I've heard it can change a player.