Opinion Debunking the so-called Polar Vortex (1 Viewer)

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Wrote this OP-ED article about 7 yrs. ago, but I believe it is still relevant.

I still haven't bought-in on this hype about the so-called "Polar Vortex." This article might be a bit deep if you don't have a strong science background. But I tried to explain it in laymen's terms.

I have no doubt that there will be naysayers to my rationale. That's OK. But if you want to refute it, I ask that you put forth the REASONING for your rebuttal.

 
Wrote this OP-ED article about 7 yrs. ago, but I believe it is still relevant.

I still haven't bought-in on this hype about the so-called "Polar Vortex." This article might be a bit deep if you don't have a strong science background. But I tried to explain it in laymen's terms.

I have no doubt that there will be naysayers to my rationale. That's OK. But if you want to refute it, I ask that you put forth the REASONING for your rebuttal.


Great article, thanks for sharing.
 
Hard for me to take it as a serious weather related article when you use the words desperate, alarmist, propaganda, and scrambling in the opening to describe 97% of scientists polled on global warming.

If your position is strong enough and backed by fact there's no need attack with dog whistles that make you seem like a partisan hack out to sabotage the opponent since you can't refute their science.

IDK, maybe there was some substance later, but the whole vector you came at it ruined any chance you had of being impartial and fact based.
 
Hard for me to take it as a serious weather related article when you use the words desperate, alarmist, propaganda, and scrambling in the opening to describe 97% of scientists polled on global warming.

If your position is strong enough and backed by fact there's no need attack with dog whistles that make you seem like a partisan hack out to sabotage the opponent since you can't refute their science.

IDK, maybe there was some substance later, but the whole vector you came at it ruined any chance you had of being impartial and fact based.
I tend to agree here. You could have easily put forth the material without "sounding the alarm" that you don't believe in global warming.

From some of the articles I've read, the warming of the earth (global warming or just changes in the earth's climate) can affect winters at lower latitudes. The material I read stated that the warming of the poles can cause shifts in the prevailing winds around the globe (such as the jet stream). The main reason we are seeing the record cold in Texas is the huge dip in the jet stream....and that pattern is holding for a long period of time (which is unusual). It will be hard for anyone to go toe to toe with you because you are clearly very educated on meteorology. I have a BS degree & took meteorology in college, but some of the concepts are complex.....so the layman will be lost. Cuddos for a fine vocabulary!

Congrats on getting published. Article was interesting.
 
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Hard for me to take it as a serious weather related article when you use the words desperate, alarmist, propaganda, and scrambling in the opening to describe 97% of scientists polled on global warming.

If your position is strong enough and backed by fact there's no need attack with dog whistles that make you seem like a partisan hack out to sabotage the opponent since you can't refute their science.

IDK, maybe there was some substance later, but the whole vector you came at it ruined any chance you had of being impartial and fact based.

I'll join in this sentiment and add that CDN is a decidedly biased organization.

I read the whole article though and must say that you appear to know what you're talking about. However, it also appears that there is quite a bit of "hair-splitting" going on. Here is a quote early on (you're attempting to refute a particular source: https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/01/multiple-stratospheric-warmings-confirm.html for whom I could not identify the author's credentials) -

The polar vortex is a low pressure system that sits on the North Pole. This is false. The arctic region, which covers the North polar ice cap, is dominated by a large scale surface high pressure system that is semi-permanent and exists nearly year round. In fact, this high pressure gets stronger each winter and weakens during the summer. The “low pressure” feature in this polar vortex argument is a geopotential low height system that is nearly always present above the coldest core of the surface high pressure system.

This actually looks like you picked a particular quote ("sits on the North Pole") on the polar vortex to attack because other sources say things like this:

The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both of the Earth’s poles. It ALWAYS exists near the poles, but weakens in summer and strengthens in winter. The term "vortex" refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air near the Poles. Many times during winter in the northern hemisphere, the polar vortex will expand, sending cold air southward with the jet stream (see graphic above). This occurs fairly regularly during wintertime and is often associated with large outbreaks of Arctic air in the United States. The one that occurred January 2014 is similar to many other cold outbreaks that have occurred in the past, including several notable colder outbreaks in 1977, 1982, 1985 and 1989.

The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding the Earth's North and South poles. The term vortex refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air close to the poles. Often during winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the polar vortex will become less stable and expand, sending cold Arctic air southward over the United States with the jet stream.

The polar vortex is nothing new – in fact, it's thought that the term first appeared in an 1853 issue of E. Littell's Living Age.

Emphasis mine.

As I continued to read I noted other hair-splitting. Again, from your article:

This system holds cold air up. Again, this statement is false. Basic meteorology illustrates that warm air rises and cold air sinks. The colder, more dense air will always seek equilibrium by sinking towards the surface. Atmospheric physics defies the notion of any process holding cold air up. Such a description is tantamount to atmospheric instability, which cannot be maintained for any appreciable period of time.

Go back and read the next sentence after that author states that the system holds cold air up -
When the vortex is weakened, cold air tends to flow south. This is also known as the negative Arctic Oscillation.

In context, the author is stating that the vortex is keeping cold air from flowing South, not holding cold air above warm air which is your assertion and further argument.

I could continue with a couple of more points, but it is more "hair-splitting" and contextualization.

Bill, you are no doubt a learned and articulate person. The science you explained is correct (albeit wordy and intended to be impressive by vocabulary). However, I could not find how your assertion that "Polar Vortex reasoning for Arctic outbreaks is hyperbole" was supported by the science that you presented. (But you did say your post was an OP-ED, not an article on science.) What I did find is that you took umbrage with a particular blogger whose credentials are unknown and attacked their post with one of your own in which you took some things out of context.

For those wishing to continue to read reports on the polar vortex, including scientific peer-reviewed materials, please consult the reference section of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex

Just a note: At one time I was a global warming denier but understood that climate change was a real and consistent factor of our Earth. I am also a scientist at heart and understand that my current beliefs at any given time can be disrupted by science. I am now, having continued to read and study, a climate change activist who believes that we need to do all that we can to protect and preserve our planet as much as it is in our power to do so. Science FTW.
 
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Hard for me to take it as a serious weather related article when you use the words desperate, alarmist, propaganda, and scrambling in the opening to describe 97% of scientists polled on global warming.

If your position is strong enough and backed by fact there's no need attack with dog whistles that make you seem like a partisan hack out to sabotage the opponent since you can't refute their science.

IDK, maybe there was some substance later, but the whole vector you came at it ruined any chance you had of being impartial and fact based.

I agree but I didn’t find a ton of that language. Omitting them would improve the article since those words are confirmation bias rally cries and that doesn’t serve a purpose other than the divisiveness we just crucified Rush for.
 
I don't think you can argue against the existence of the polar vortex dipping south because it's pretty obvious right now when you step outside its unseasonably cold. Your argument is more about why it's caused. The temps above siberia were observed to jump nearly 100 degrees in early January which is how the vortex dipping south was predicted.


 
Contemplated whether to do this or not, but I think it's fair game:

OP has a history pushing conspiracy theories.. he ran for Congress in 2010 and at that time he publicly speculated there may have been collusion between the federal government and BP to create "a leak" which then got out of control.




well he was doing ok until the last minute. Saying that the government institutions in charge of monitoring that signed off on it need to be investigated. Then he says maybe it’s for a reason - yes it’s always greed. Bribes. But at “maybe they wanted it to leak...”. Ok wait you said earlier you are not a conspiracy theorist.
 
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