Saints Deep passes by Brees (1 Viewer)

Richard

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No one denies that Brees has been throwing deep less frequently over the last couple of years. I assume that it is by design due to lessening arm strength and I believe it is also partially due to some irritation to his throwing shoulder. I hesitate to call it an injury, but I do think Brees experienced some discomfort on balls he had to rip deep.

That said, PFF rates him in the bottom third of deep ball passers in spite of having a passer rating above 117 on those throws and the fourth best completion percentage. If I am correct and Brees had an irritation in 2019 that could be improved due to rest and treatment, it is possible that we could see Brees throw deep more often in 2020.

 

BIGRON

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Brees arm strength has weaken and he is unable to throw the deep ball unless he is throwing to a spot on the field in a timing play to his receivers. The deep ball has been missing from our offense for several years and is part of the reason why Payton wanted Taysom or someone with a stronger arm on certain plays. Defenses no longer respect the deep ball when Drew is on the field and it is one big reason why the Saints can't get over the hump in the playoffs. That no-call play in the Rams game was the result of a ball that didn't have zip on it. I'm sure Payton will be trying to develop plays for our backup QBs to get the ball deep and loosen up the defensive pressure up front.
 

blackadder

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Brees arm strength has weaken and he is unable to throw the deep ball unless he is throwing to a spot on the field in a timing play to his receivers. The deep ball has been missing from our offense for several years and is part of the reason why Payton wanted Taysom or someone with a stronger arm on certain plays. Defenses no longer respect the deep ball when Drew is on the field and it is one big reason why the Saints can't get over the hump in the playoffs. That no-call play in the Rams game was the result of a ball that didn't have zip on it. I'm sure Payton will be trying to develop plays for our backup QBs to get the ball deep and loosen up the defensive pressure up front.
It's about three years and yes I would bet it is as much just natural physical decline, especially on the repaired shoulder. In any case what he did up to that point was remarkable.

The excuse has been "well it's because of the receivers we can't go deep". Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle but we have never had great receiving talent. We had more or less one trick ponies like Meachem and Henderson who could get separation deep but on other teams with other QBs they disappeared.

In the last 3 seasons I've also seen enough times with Ginn waiting on the ball, or ball underthrown or Drew just not pulling the trigger to see the glaring difference from 5-6 years ago.

It's not meant to be a criticism; it's natural at this stage. Given the reality, I'm more concerned with how Payton coaches and play calls around it, given his struggles to really commit to the run or consistently stick to an approach like he used with Teddy through the first half of last season. A lot of teams are going tighten down and dare Brees to beat them over the top until he shows he can make the pay, and if he can't...what's plan B?
 
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whosyadaddy

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Yes I was going over film with a friend of mine basically looking at how defenses played us with our 09 and 11 offenses versus our offense of today. The difference was astounding. Back in 09 and 11 for example you would always see safeties deep, the Tampa 2 was a popular choice against the Saints back then. Defenses are playing a much shorter field today and the back of their safety box is very shallow. They are playing a much shorter field and that is difficult for the Saints. It is why offenses bog down in the red zone, defenses are much more successful playing a shorter field it has been mathematically proven. What I like now is there are a few players like Sanders who can make something happen for Drew outside of Thomas in short space. Getting Deonte Harris more involved could open up some things as well.
 

renegadewa

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No one denies that Brees has been throwing deep less frequently over the last couple of years. I assume that it is by design due to lessening arm strength and I believe it is also partially due to some irritation to his throwing shoulder. I hesitate to call it an injury, but I do think Brees experienced some discomfort on balls he had to rip deep.

That said, PFF rates him in the bottom third of deep ball passers in spite of having a passer rating above 117 on those throws and the fourth best completion percentage. If I am correct and Brees had an irritation in 2019 that could be improved due to rest and treatment, it is possible that we could see Brees throw deep more often in 2020.

There is one thing that all the rest and treatment in the world won't cure and that is age. We all knew that the talking heads who have been saying for the last 5-6 years that Brees's arm strength was diminishing although it was wrong at the time eventually they were going to be right at some point.

It's not a knock on Brees at all. We all knew it was coming and now it's here. He is still an elite top tier QB and defenses know they need to be on their toes to stop him or he will carve them up like a Christmas ham.

As someone already said you can look for Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston to make spot appearances and launch the ball deep this season. You know that Sean Payton has some tricks up his sleeve.
 

dutar76

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Drew may not throw the deep ball often anymore, but there's still receivers running those 7, 8, and 9 routes. The defense still has to defend them. And if they don't or Drew sees a matchup he likes or his receiver blow by the back defender? He can still make the throws. Just can't throw them at his past almost 100% accuracy, and I wouldn't think we'd ask him to throw those balls a lot.
 

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Brees has lost the ability to throw deep. The numbers say it. My eyes see it. Defenses see it. I don't think there is any reason to believe that Drew will have his best season ever at this point in his career. It is highly likely that Brees will not play as well as he played last year and that is arm strength will diminish even further. If he comes out lighting up deep balls like he did 10 years ago, my first thought will be PED's. This means the Saints will have to rely even more heavily on short throws, Taysom Hill, defense and special teams to win. I don't think this team can make a Super Bowl run without a legit QB. Drew just doesn't have what it takes to beat the best defenses in the NFL anymore.
 

bigdaddysaints

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he had a few pretty nice deep balls in the Houston game. You can tell the thumb injury affected his deep ball.
we all know Drew doesn't have the same ability he did in 2011, but before his thumb injury, it was still sufficient.
 

No2DC

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Father time is undefeated, and Drew is not the exception to the rule. I agree with the poster who said we may rely on Hill or Winston to do that occasionally. Also, I can't say our deep threats have shown the past abilty as our former deep guys like Mech or Devery.
 
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Speaking specifically to 2019, remember he was playing with a surgically repaired thumb on his throwing hand. But speaking to his throwing in general these days, it has become slightly more noticeable each year that his deep passes aren't quite the same, but it’s actually not the terrible drop off that you might expect from a QB at the end of his career. Well, I guess a lot of people don’t see it that way since it’s always a subject. Hopefully he has another very productive year in the short-medium range passing game and can make the deeper throws he has to when they are wide open.
 

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No one denies that Brees has been throwing deep less frequently over the last couple of years. I assume that it is by design due to lessening arm strength and I believe it is also partially due to some irritation to his throwing shoulder. I hesitate to call it an injury, but I do think Brees experienced some discomfort on balls he had to rip deep.

That said, PFF rates him in the bottom third of deep ball passers in spite of having a passer rating above 117 on those throws and the fourth best completion percentage. If I am correct and Brees had an irritation in 2019 that could be improved due to rest and treatment, it is possible that we could see Brees throw deep more often in 2020.

I think a lot of it is how defenses play the Saints. Early on as Saints, Payton and Brees were very aggressive with deep throws forcing defenses to cover the entire field. Defenses evolved to take away the deep pass and force Brees to throw shorter passes. It's smart theory as the effect of a big play offensively is a key indicator for the best scoring offenses. Shorter passes reduces the amount of territory a defenses has to defend and offenses get impatient, leading to an advantage for the defense.

Evolution is necessary for continued success. The Saints have simply evolved beyond the aggressive, downfield offense to a patient, precise offense that better utilizes running backs. They still throw downfield, but not beat as often. Brees' armstrength has certainly declined, but not enough that it's worth discussing as a definite affect on the offense. People point to specific wobbly passes when arguing otherwise, but Brees has always been prone to a wobbly downfield pass. There's honestly nothing worth discussing.
 

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What's being missed here is the fact that the offense's best player is not a deep threat. With cantguardmike getting an extreme amount of the targets, AK also getting heavy targets , and the lack of a consistent #2, I could see why the numbers dont appear explosive.
 

saint_drago

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Yes I was going over film with a friend of mine basically looking at how defenses played us with our 09 and 11 offenses versus our offense of today. The difference was astounding. Back in 09 and 11 for example you would always see safeties deep, the Tampa 2 was a popular choice against the Saints back then. Defenses are playing a much shorter field today and the back of their safety box is very shallow.
I've been saying that the field shrinks when the Saints are on offense and it expands when they're on defense. It's like opposing defenses play with 13 players and opposing offenses have 15.

You look around at other offenses and there seems to be so much more space. Players have more room to operate and get yards after the catch. Defenses are daring Drew to beat them over the top now.

A deep ball is any pass over 20 yards but when I think of the deep ball I'm thinking of strikes 30 or 40 yards down field. Drew can still make the intermediate passes look easy but the really deep stuff, it just isn't the same. He used to hit guys in stride way down field.
 
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Clintonrebel

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I used to hate these debates about Brees declining arm strength, but for once I welcome anything related to football and just football. Thank you.
 

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