Derek Carr world tour thread (updated with combine visits) (5 Viewers)

[IlovemySaints]

I'd argue that he's at the top of that second group. The only one of those I might rank ahead of him would be Watson, and of course he had his own issues, although mostly off the field stuff. Rodgers and Stafford are in the twilight of their careers, so I'd rather have Carr in his prime than a 1-2 year rental. That puts Carr firmly in the top 10 QBs. Clearly better than average. And if you go by his stats prior to last season, he easily qualifies.

Might be lol Watson is wayyyu better lol

 

[DaveXA]

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. I like Carr, but he’s being overhyped by the forum right now because the Saints are looking at him. We have all convinced ourselves that he is better than what he is. He hasn’t looked good the past two seasons and his supporting cast may be even better than we have in New Orleans

Well, I had him in ffl a couple of years ago and he put up some big numbers. Watched several of his games and he's been solid until last year. And word coming out of LV is he had his hands tied by McDaniels and that led to the drop in performance this year. So, I'm inclined to believe his performance last year was an aberration and not his usual high level of play, which even then wasn't terrible.

He had issues when getting in the red zone, but I'd put that on coaching.

We disagree, which is fine, but I think the best thing to do is go with an experienced vet who can bring a high level of play and stability at the QB position. We get him, we can focus the draft on other key positions. Also, we didn't have to give anything up to get him, other than a contract offer.

 

[saintsmarchin]

At this point I want Carr so I can read all the negative posts from this biased media that is riding the New York big market craze.

 

[sammymvpknight]

There may be some truth in that but then I wouldn't put Lawrence in the same group you did. He's trending the right direction but there's nothing in his production so far that puts him within mention of Mahomes, Burrow, and Hurts other than he's young. In fact, Throw in Herbert and Allen with them, then a next tier of Rodgers and Jackson, (elite talent; one is in his twilight and the other has durability and playoff concerns) and I think there's a bigger group bunched together and Carr has a place among them.

All subjective, of course, but I think situations and supporting casts are the biggest differentiators among that group.

If an NFL was conduct a re-draft with all available players…I’m pretty confident Lawrence would go top 5.

Well, I had him in ffl a couple of years ago and he put up some big numbers. Watched several of his games and he's been solid until last year. And word coming out of LV is he had his hands tied by McDaniels and that led to the drop in performance this year. So, I'm inclined to believe his performance last year was an aberration and not his usual high level of play, which even then wasn't terrible.

He had issues when getting in the red zone, but I'd put that on coaching.

We disagree, which is fine, but I think the best thing to do is go with an experienced vet who can bring a high level of play and stability at the QB position. We get him, we can focus the draft on other key positions. Also, we didn't have to give anything up to get him, other than a contract offer.

Carr wasn’t particularly good two years ago…before McDaniels. I’m not particularly interested in getting a QB that can be good in certain schemes. Carr was good three years ago, if that was the guy we’d be getting I’d be fine with it. But there is no guarantee. Carr has only thrown for 25+ TDs once in the past 6 years. That’s while having receivers that are capable of getting in the end zone….Cooper, Waller, Renfrow, and Adams

 

[Saint Spud]

If an NFL was conduct a re-draft with all available players…I’m pretty confident Lawrence would go top 5.

Carr wasn’t particularly good two years ago…before McDaniels. I’m not particularly interested in getting a QB that can be good in certain schemes. Carr was good three years ago, if that was the guy we’d be getting I’d be fine with it. But there is no guarantee. Carr has only thrown for 25+ TDs once in the past 6 years. That’s while having receivers that are capable of getting in the end zone….Cooper, Waller, Renfrow, and Adams

So which QB would you like to get?

I think we’d all love a scheme-independent QB. But there isn’t one available. So why not get the best available one who has shown pretty good ability running a scheme very similar to ours?

 

[DavidM]

If an NFL was conduct a re-draft with all available players…I’m pretty confident Lawrence would go top 5.

Carr wasn’t particularly good two years ago…before McDaniels. I’m not particularly interested in getting a QB that can be good in certain schemes. Carr was good three years ago, if that was the guy we’d be getting I’d be fine with it. But there is no guarantee. Carr has only thrown for 25+ TDs once in the past 6 years. That’s while having receivers that are capable of getting in the end one….Cooper, Waller, Renfrow, and Adams

The first comment is subjective but I already understood you have a high opinion of him, and I'm not down on him. Mostly, I think he hasn't done enough to separate himself from the bigger pack and take a place among the elite QBs, that isn't largely based on expectations and speculation. His numbers last season were very career-Carr like. With the advantage of youth on his side, if the hypothetical was choosing between Lawrence and Carr then Lawrence, absolutely and without hesitation. But, at this point, I'd take him behind Mahomes, Burrow, Hurts, Allen, and Herbert with the same degree of certainty.

Your other thoughts, while directed at Dave, appear in agreement with my comment about situations and supporting cast, and I think those are the circumstances where all of that next tier of QBs falls. Any of them seem capable of rising in the top 10 or flirting with the bottom tier, depending, and it's that uncertainty about them that makes them next tier players.

 

[sammymvpknight]

So which QB would you like to get?

I think we’d all love a scheme-independent QB. But there isn’t one available. So why not get the best available one who has shown pretty good ability running a scheme very similar to ours?

My top five would be Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Lawrence, and Herbert.

For this year I’d consider moving up in the first if there us someone I really like. If not you stay put and see what happens. I’d keep Dalton and Taysom as a fall back plan. It’s ok to not be great. We can’t compromise our future out of desperation. I’m ok with Carr, but I’m not paying him $45 million. That’s crazy talk

 

[Saint Spud]

My top five would be Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Lawrence, and Herbert.

For this year I’d consider moving up in the first if there us someone I really like. If not you stay put and see what happens. I’d keep Dalton and Taysom as a fall back plan. It’s ok to not be great. We can’t compromise our future out of desperation. I’m ok with Carr, but I’m not paying him $45 million. That’s crazy talk

I can agree on your first point for the most part. I might put a couple guys in there before Lawrence like Hurts and Jackson. But I really like TLaw, too.

And I’d definitely move up if we fell in love with Richardson or Levis (don’t think Stroud or Young would get in striking distance). I don’t want to see Dalton as QB1 again. But I wouldn’t be opposed to Taysom if we changed around the entire offense for him, something SP never did.

 

[sammymvpknight]

I can agree on your first point for the most part. I might put a couple guys in there before Lawrence like Hurts and Jackson. But I really like TLaw, too.

And I’d definitely move up if we fell in love with Richardson or Levis (don’t think Stroud or Young would get in striking distance). I don’t want to see Dalton as QB1 again. But I wouldn’t be opposed to Taysom if we changed around the entire offense for him, something SP never did.

I like Hurts and Jackson as well…but I think they are pretty much at the peak of their value. There tends to be diminishing returns on running QBs. It’s actually possible we’ve already seen the best of Jackson. I’d just be shocked if Lawrence doesn’t continue to get better…so young and talented. I think there is a decent chance he could be more valued than anyone other than Mahomes after next season…the greatest QB prospect I’ve ever seen and he’s just scratching the surface

 

[No2DC]

I like Hurts and Jackson as well…but I think they are pretty much at the peak of their value. There tends to be diminishing returns on running QBs. It’s actually possible we’ve already seen the best of Jackson. I’d just be shocked if Lawrence doesn’t continue to get better…so young and talented. I think there is a decent chance he could be more valued than anyone other than Mahomes after next season…the greatest QB prospect I’ve ever seen and he’s just scratching the surface

Hurts outplayed Mahomes statically in the Superbowl, and LJ was only the second unanimous MVP in league history. You gotta be joking, right? Hurts or LJ are top right now. Wow, you said Hurts peaked in his 3rd year. I swear you can't make this stuff up.

 

[Judge_Smails]

So which QB would you like to get?

I think we’d all love a scheme-independent QB. But there isn’t one available. So why not get the best available one who has shown pretty good ability running a scheme very similar to ours?

Why does he have to pick who he “would like to get”?

Having strong opinions, as you do, is nice and all, but it’s just your opinion that Carr is the only smart choice.

Just like it’s only your opinion that it is weird, dumb, stupid or wrong to think the Jets might be more attractive to him than NO.

Here is another opinion:

The Saints have an historically bad HC that is most likely not going to get better at it.

The Saints have a roster that still has talent, but also the kinds of major holes and money tied up in descending players that make the idea of paying $40 mil a year for a QB1 that is in the front end of the middle of the pack (compared to his peers) a bad move.

Rather than sink a huge amount of the current and future cap into that contract and the restructuring of descending player contracts needed to do it (which will likely garner more time for DA, even if next year is similar or worse than 2022); it would be better to sign an affordable bridge QB that fits (I would shoot for Teddy B). And use the draft and saved cap space to strengthen the current roster holes.

If Allen fails, which I predict he will, then the new HC can have the biggest role in upgrading the QB spot.

And to be clear I am not rooting for failure for Allen or whoever plays QB. And I live in reality, meaning I know he will be HC for at least 2023z

I still see the failure swirling around Allen though and while I hope he improves I would never bet on that. Instead I would short-sell (hedge) in anticipation of what is coming.

 

[DaveXA]

Might be lol Watson is wayyyu better lol

He was terrible last season too. So, let's see if he improves this season. Carr had very similar numbers over his first 5 seasons compared to Watson. Both played on mostly subpar teams with good offenses and poor defenses. So Watson hasn't exactly outperformed Carr by much, if at all. The main difference is Watson can score with his feet. Carr can, but that's not where he shines.

Carr - 5 seasons from 2018 - 2022

QBR - 97.1
Yards - 20,532
TDs - 120
Ints - 55
Completion % - 65%

Watson - first 5 seasons - 2017 - 2022 (didn't play in 2021 and played nearly a seaon of games less due to injury and suspension)

QBR - 103.3
Yards - 15,641
TDs - 111
Ints - 41
Completion % - 67%

 

[No2DC]

He was terrible last season too. So, let's see if he improves this season. Carr had very similar numbers over his first 5 seasons compared to Watson. Both played on mostly subpar teams with good offenses and poor defenses. So Watson hasn't exactly outperformed Carr by much, if at all. The main difference is Watson can score with his feet. Carr can, but that's not where he shines.

Carr - 5 seasons from 2018 - 2022

QBR - 97.1
Yards - 20,532
TDs - 120
Ints - 55
Completion % - 65%

Watson - first 5 seasons - 2017 - 2022 (didn't play in 2021 and played nearly a seaon of games less due to injury and suspension)

QBR - 103.3
Yards - 15,641
TDs - 111
Ints - 41
Completion % - 67%

I'm going with Watson but I understand your point about the gap. More TDS but more INTs for Carr. I think most people would take prime Watson over Carr. Watson was considered top 10 when Brady was in the mix.

 

[DaveXA]

If an NFL was conduct a re-draft with all available players…I’m pretty confident Lawrence would go top 5.

Carr wasn’t particularly good two years ago…before McDaniels. I’m not particularly interested in getting a QB that can be good in certain schemes. Carr was good three years ago, if that was the guy we’d be getting I’d be fine with it. But there is no guarantee. Carr has only thrown for 25+ TDs once in the past 6 years. That’s while having receivers that are capable of getting in the end zone….Cooper, Waller, Renfrow, and Adams

What? He had a very good year in 2021.

QBR - 94
Yards - 4,804
TDs - 23
Ints - 14
Completion % - 68.4

The Raiders had a horrific OL that year which resulted in him being sacked 40 times and no doubt hurt his QBR.

 

[No2DC]

Sure it's debatable. And objectively, the rest of the NFCS division is worse than the rest of the AFCE. Not to mention the AFC overall where QBs rule that conference. If I'm Carr, I want the best odds of getting to the playoffs, and the Saints have better odds than the Jets on that point.

That said, the Jets probably do have more money. The question I guess is whether that's enough to sway Carr their way.

They have better picks as well, particularly their 1st pick at 13. There's a better chance of getting an elite player at 13 than 29 without making any moves. That said, it's still debatable.