Dick Morris sees a GOP massacre tomorrow... (1 Viewer)

TPS

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http://www.nypost.com/seven/1106200...opedcolumnists_dick_morris__eileen_mcgann.htm

I don't agree so much. I think it's all going to be close except maybe in the governor's races which I haven't paid much attention to. While it would be very nice to dump 1 party rule and get back to gridlock, I don't think the Democratic Party has offered enough beyond their typical talking points (education, healthcare, middleclass tax cuts) to deserve a shot at power again. I would have preferred, if they were going to run, that they put together a platform of reform issues. FWIW, my ex said she wasn't voting for Bobby Jindal tomorrow (whom she has never voted for in the past). She's going with the Libertarian candidate. :shrug:

TPS
 

Saintman2884

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Steve, I think it will be a split in the Congress and the Senate. Ummm. I think the Dems will win the House and maybe a few seats in the Senate but not enough for a majority. They dont have the ability IMO to get a majority in the Senate, it jusnt isnt their yet in my view. But I kind of welcome this change a little bit, I think the Reps have failed a little bit at being the majority party for 6 years now, I think maybe its time we had some new colors in the leadership in the House and maybe the senate.

TPS, 2008 is really the year where the Dems have to take control if they want to win the Presidency. its their shot, after tommorrow they will have a foothold on it but they need to take advantage and play their cards right, in 2 years they have their best shot at getting a guy in the White House, they cant blow it and yes I am a Republian saying this too.
 

jpcdolphan

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If all things were equal, I would agree with Dick Morris.

However, I think you have articulated quite well the problem that Democrats face (and the problem with Morris' theory).

We all know that the Republicans can (and have) put themselves in the position to lose this election. We still don't know (and haven't seen any indication) that the Democrats can win it, though, beyond the early polls which proved to be quite wrong two years ago.

Unless the challengers can articulate a clear and alternative vision, it isn't a slam dunk that the voters won't stick with the proverbial "devil that you know".
 
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TPS

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Good points jc. Chairperson Dean did offer a few reasons for voting for them tomorrow, but it's short on specifics. I mostly agree with what he's saying they'd like to do (fiscal responsibility, affordability for higher education, middle-class based tax reform, et al), but I haven't seen anything concrete.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2006/11/post_14.html

FWIW, Quinn Hiller (editor for rightist American Spectator), feels the opposite of Morris and has it down to the GOP maintaining the house by 1 vote (you read it there first).

http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2006/11/post_14.html

Finally, Real Clear Politics had a nice link to a New York Magazine storey showing some evidence in Missouri about the potential "Purple-ing of America" which I think many of us could get behind (or at least those of us who aren't party-specific).

http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/23782/index.html

TPS
 

JimEverett

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It certainly has the potential to be an election of 1994 proportions.
If you remember, polls of specific races really weren;t predicting the 1994 landslide for the GOP. But the generic polls gave teh Republicans huge leads. This is similar to what we are seeing today.

I don;t know enough either way - Republicans are saying they had a great week and they will definitley keep the Senate. That may happen if this isn;t on the level of 1994. If it is on that level, then instead of a 10-20 seat gain for Democrats in the House, we should see 30-40 seat gain. In the Senate the "toss up" states of Missouri, Virginia, and Montana should break fairly easily for the Democrats, and the "lean GOP" states of Tennessee and Arizona will be real close and might switch parties - with Arizona being a crushing defeat for Republicans.

Also, though, if it is not a 1994-style epic, then the emocrats very well could end up losing Maryland and/or New Jersey while the REpublicans maintain Rhode Island.
Anyways, it will be interesting to watch tommorrow.
 

RJ in Lafayette

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Because of the recent national polls, showing a slight surge in Bush's approval rating (40 percent) and a slight decrease in the percentage favoring the generic Congressional Democratic candidate, I am going to hedge my bets.

Saturday, I would have said the Democrats take in the House 30 seats and in the Senate five seats with a shot at a sixth seat. Today, because of the new polls (and the two big developments in the last week were Saddam's verdict and Kerry's stupid comment), I will go on the record and say the Democrats pick up 25 seats in the House, but I am still going to say the Democrats pick up five Senate seats. And Tester, Webb and McCaskill could all three win, but would probably tip the balance of the Senate.
 
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SoonerJim

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The two men most reponsible for Morris' likely scenario are Tom Delay and President Malicki. Delay invoked party discipline and pulled disparate Republicans together on bills. Most died in the Senate, but that's what divided government is designed for. They've been rudderless without him. Malicki has presided over a hellstorm unleashed in Iraq, and is loath to do anything about it. Both developments are sending Republicans down to what I'd predict a 30 seat House loss and six seats in the Senate. This will not mollify the Bush haters, nor lead to any policy changes in Iraq.

Bush will sign the "compassionate" bills sent him, and will veto the economic and military changes. It will be like Truman's administration, with the 2009 President ratcheting back in Iraq as Eisenhower did in Korea. The current New Republic predicts a "peace with honor" Iraq outcome, with the final resolution occurring after a time interval long enough for blame to be assigned to the (choose one or more) neocons, media, administration, or Democrats.

I've supported Hussein's ouster based on suspected, and previously known WMDs, and also on the grounds that Stalinist dictatorships with oil revenues constitute a potentially major hazard in an otherwise hostile region. The current American Prospect has an article stating what I've always suspected, four American military bases are up and running. That's not, as the article states, directed towards Iraq. It's for their northerly neighbor. You don't want an Iran-Israel conflict. Whoever replaces Bush, an inaugural figure in the Terror War, will inherit this problem, and no amount of DU or NYT gloating wil change that.
 

Rickboy

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I hope the Dems win control of at least one House.

In Governor races, I hope Rick Perry gets kicked in the balls by Kinky or Grandma. Heck, even Chris Bell would be a huge improvement.
 

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I hope the Dems win control of at least one House.

In Governor races, I hope Rick Perry gets kicked in the balls by Kinky or Grandma. Heck, even Chris Bell would be a huge improvement.
I disagree....Chris Bell is as equally worthless at Rick Perry.

Unfortunately, Perry will win because the opposition vote is split between three other candidates.
 

Wombat

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In the generic balot the Democrats have lost their advantage and it's down to roughly 4%. That's similar to how far down the Republicans were in 1994, 2002,2004.

Corker is pulling away in TN. Burns has comeback in MT. and is at least 50/50 shot. MO. and VA. are within the margin of error and the GOP will keep at least one if not both. Surprises are that Steele in MD and Kean in NJ are within the margin of error. Steele could win, Kean won't given the power of the Democrat party there. DeWine has moved up considerably in Ohio though it's probably not happening for him. Santorum needs a Hail Mary and has a history of closing well. Repulicans lose 2 in the senate.

If, if the Democrats take the House it'll be by less than 10.
 
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SaintJ

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It's not going to matter, because whether the Democrats have control of one or two houses of Congress, everybody in both parties is going to do nothing more than blame the other one for everything, including sunspots, in anticipation of the 2008 presidential elections.

Meanwhile, we spin around rudderless, which is good for some things (we'll continue to pull in illegal immigrants who will end up building the next generation of America; hey, somebody has to) and bad for others (we need some kind of coherent national energy policy, because the free market approach is absolutely killing us in the geopolitical area).

Should be interesting, but will only be a prelude to the mudwrestling fiasco leading up to November 2008.
 

Severum

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Definitely see them Dems taking the House. If they win VA/MO/MT they should take the Senate, a TN/AZ win would probably take it also. Good projection maps and analysis/poll tracks at Pollster and CQPolitics. Bush and generic Reps saw a jump at the end of last week (thanks Kerry), but it was erased in the latest Fox/CNN polls. Not sure if the Saddam verdict moves any votes, Haggard could depress some evangelicals. RNCC is spending millions on robocalls designed to harass voters while appearing to be from Dems, probably illegal but they budget for fines. Other assorted dirty tricks and vote fraud (1 minute to hack most evoting boxes) could decide any close races.
 

Wombat

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Also, Dick Morris' predictions have always been wrong. He picked Gore and Kerry just before those elections. He predicted a defeat for Republicans in 2002 as well.

Zogby is another guy who constantly has to wipe egg off of his face('04,'02,'00)
 

Wombat

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RNCC is spending millions on robocalls designed to harass voters while appearing to be from Dems, probably illegal but they budget for fines. Other assorted dirty tricks and vote fraud (1 minute to hack most evoting boxes) could decide any close races.

Right. Who do the dead vote for? There were votes cast by dead people this year in the Democrat primary in Cleveland. Who do students at Marquette U. proudly brag that they voted for multiple times in the 2000 election? How is it that , I believe it was either Detroit or Philidelphia, in a city where 618,000 people are registered to vote, the 2004 election had 630,000 votes cast in that democratic stronghold. How about those ACORN voter registration drives where cartoon characters were turned in with home addresses?

Democrats and their machines have long perfected the art of vote fraud. Why is it that Democrats support every initiative that would make committing vote fraud easier? Motor voter, Not having to show an ID when you vote, allowing people to vote out of their district? It seems that the Democrats don't even feel one has to be a citizen. With their initiatives one would not have to prove it.
 

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