NFL Draft Do we / should we use 2020 draft capital to move up this year? (2 Viewers)

[ndcc]

Given how high on and spot-on Payton was about Mahommes, I'm feeling very good about his "eagle eye" on getting the right talent in place in the post-Brees era. No one else was even close in being gung-ho over Mahommes like Sean Payton was.

Having said that, our roster is strong enough at the skill positions that we should be able to take BPA when our turn is up on the big board. And given how exceptionally talented our scouting department is... I'm feeling like a kid waiting to open his b-day present ---when it's time to line up the UDFA's.

JMO

 

[saint_drago]

If they have a guy that they really like who they think can have an immediate impact, then go for it. The Saints put quality over quantity when it comes to draft picks. The Patriots buy five $1 scratch offs. The Saints buy one $5 scratch off.

 

[RaisingTheBar]

The only way we should trade 2020 picks is if it gets us a player who we know can contribute immediately, so I'm saying via a trade. We shouldn't use it on a draft pick that may not develop into a productive player until after Brees is gone. If there is a guy in the draft we are sold can make an immediate impact then so be it but I don't think so unless we get way up there.

 

[60minutes]

This draft is so unpredictable, and this is not just my own personal view but is shared by many trusted friends in the business. Draft boards are all over the place and there is not any certainty with which anyone could speak in terms of what will unfold on Thursday and Friday. The Saints could very well end up staying put at #62 or surprising with a trade down though I think the interest is still there to move up. I could see a trade up as early as the late first round (picks 26-32) and as late as the mid-second round. For some odd reason, I think they want to get ahead of NE or trade with NE. Most of these deals are made days before so you have to imagine that the Saints have been on the phone with teams where they have some familiarity. I do not think they'll trade with GB so soon after last year's deal but you never know. I'm speculating but other teams, such as Colts, Raiders, Chargers, and Seahawks, could make some sense. Of course, anything in the second becomes more open and if I were a betting man I'd put money on a trade up in the second since I think they would like to do as much as possible to maintain the #62 pick or to gain two picks in the top 80.

That said, I could see the Saints trading up for Will Grier, Jerry Tillery, AJ Brown or maybe a top offensive lineman or pass rusher if one of them fell. I think Chris Lindstrom could be a darkhorse as could Dalton Risner. I think Greg Little is someone they like though he is being underrated by others. I also think Gary and Sweat would invite conversation if they fell far enough. The Saints did not feel comfortable taking Maurice Hurst last year, and I personally feel like a lot of that had to do with what happened with Nick Fairley, so I am not sure at what point in the draft they would consider the risk worth it for Sweat. I believe he remains on their board, however. Gary is interesting because he is a boom or bust prospect but he has the athleticism and length that they look for; usually, the Saints front office sees the second round as a fertile ground for these kinds of prospects. Gary did not live up to his hype at Michigan but he is really good kid who is smart and works very hard. I have my own knowledge of the situation for him at Michigan and why it did not pan out but I think he can be a better pro if he lands with the right team. The draft is deep with pass rushers and I think the Saints want to add someone at DE and/or DT who can be a part of some of their sub-rush packages.

But my overall sense is that the Saints would target one of the three players I mentioned here. Grier makes tremendous sense should they elect to go that route. He is very accurate, throws with anticipation, oozes leadership and toughness, and just has this "it" factor that Sean likes. Grier, in my opinion, is the closest QB to Baker and is being very underrated by the media in this draft. Scouts rave about him and especially his maturity. Given that the Saints do not have a QB signed to next year's roster, and also in light of the fact that we have several high-priced free agents that are coming due for new contracts, it makes complete sense to add a rookie QB now to groom to be the future albeit at a cheaper salary. When you look at Grier's numbers and compare them with other QBs in this draft, he wins in nearly every category. Some have bigger arms, some have more prototypical size, some are more mobile but I think he could end up being the best QB in this class depending on where he lands. I think the Saints feel similarly, and while there are no guarantees they'll make a move up for him, I think he's someone to keep an eye on.

Tillery is someone they have spent a lot of time with throughout the process. He is arguably the best inside pass-rushing DT in this draft, which is saying a a lot with the likes of Quinnen Williams, Jeffrey Simmons and Ed Oliver available. He has to become more consistent but when he's on his game he is dominant. In many ways, he'll remind you of Chris Jones. I have every reason to believe he could go earlier than people think--maybe mid-to-late first--but should he fall into round 2 I think he is someone that'll draw interest.

The same is true for AJ Brown. The Saints did not have him in for a visit but did spent time with him at the Combine. It is weird. The sense that I am getting from Airline Drive is that the Saints do not feel they have to make a move at WR early in the draft insomuch as they are committed to adding weapons for Drew. That weapon could come in the form of a TE rather than a receiver. There are several receivers they like, do not get me wrong. But I think they also feel good about Smith and Kirkwood now that they are going into year two. I think they also feel that there is talent at the position in this draft such that you could get a Terry McLaurin or David Sills later. So you do not have to force it. Brown, however, is someone I believe they are very high on and he gives them something they coveted in free agency--someone to play the slot. Hakeem Butler can also line up inside and obviously Parris Campbell and Andy Isabella have done it. The belief is that Campbell can do more than he was able to display at OSU--we have seen that before--and so he is a player who offers tremendous intrigue.

Finally, I think TE continues to be an area of interest. I think Dawson Knox is someone to keep an eye on. There's some serious like for Jace Sternberger but I think Knox is someone who is viewed as more athletic and more capable than he was able to show with Ole Miss. Same is true for Foster Moreau who was under-utilized at LSU.

 

[60minutes]

The only way we should trade 2020 picks is if it gets us a player who we know can contribute immediately, so I'm saying via a trade. We shouldn't use it on a draft pick that may not develop into a productive player until after Brees is gone. If there is a guy in the draft we are sold can make an immediate impact then so be it but I don't think so unless we get way up there.

I respectfully disagree. I think the Saints want to make two picks in the top 80 as I stated previously. If they are able to accomplish this, I could see them taking someone like Grier, whom they like a lot, even though he likely will not factor into our plans for this year. With two picks, they feel they can still add another talent who could contribute immediately. All this said, the Saints feel that depth is of the most immediate importance. Sure, you want someone who contributes but you also want to build quality depth as attrition--either through injuries this season or free agent departures in the future--necessitate having viable replacements on the roster.

I think the Saints want to come away from this draft with a pass rusher, either at DE or DT or both. I think they want to add a pass catcher, maybe two, if they are able to get a TE or WR. I think they also want to add a linebacker and a safety. QB is not a pressing need for "this season" but next year, with none on the roster, it becomes a position that creates a bit of urgency to fill. The Saints like Bridgewater and Hill. With Teddy, you are committing more money while you are also having to re-sign other key cogs on your roster. Grier has a lot of the traits Sean likes so I think if they feel they can add him, even with the logjam it'll create at QB this season, they'll do so. You can always move a guy later if necessary though we have to keep in mind that Tayson's role on the team makes you feel less worried about carrying 4 QBs since he lines up in so many areas. A better way to think about is this--the Saints have carried two fullbacks on the roster before or four tight ends; therefore, you could almost treat Hill as if he was a second fullback or fourth tight end should you add another young signal caller.

At any rate, I could definitely see them adding either a QB or offensive lineman who might not be expected to contribute early on. And they are fully in and are determined to win another one before Drew hangs it up. But they are not going to be so shortsighted. Sean wanted to draft Mahomes and there have been other QBs he liked. Had we stayed put at #27 last year, Lamar Jackson was going to be the pick. So he's not afraid to take someone who might not play immediately and to be quiet honest the Saints feel that absent any picks in this draft, they have the roster in place to compete for a SB. This is why depth is so critical and not just being myopic about adding an immediate contributor though certainly as a team you hoped to.

 

[Dillonsp]

I don't see us taking a QB early. Brees, Bridgewater, and Hill are all locks to make this roster. Do you really think they are going to keep 4 QBs?

If the Saints see a potential franchise guy, absolutely! At this point, Taysom Hill is more of a utility player. And, with Brees retiring soon, you don’t pass on a player at the most important position in football because you already have 2 backups on the roster.

 

[TribuneUK]

I really don't see a reason to move up when the people who know better are saying that after the top ten, the draft is similar in talent up to the third round.

Patience is virtue. Someone will fall to us, in a position of need.

Just remember how many second contracts we will need to sign in the early future. We will not be able to sign all of our young players. Market value will make it impossible.

Instead of trading up, we should start considering on the players we will need to replace and have a plan to do so.

While it's a virtue, patience is never sexy. Planning ahead by being restrained now will never set pulses fluttering or hearts racing.

Ask Pats fans if they get to feel like this at draft time and they'll tell you no. And then point out they get to feel that way in early February instead.

 

[Whodat GT]

I wouldn´t do it just based on the fact that the team squandered last year´s draft and I don´t think a team can be succesful in the long run if they throw away draft picks. You could say the huge success they had in the 2017 draft gave them sort of a pass the next year, and this year they won´t do a whole lot but that´s OK since the team as it stands is a super bowl contender. Fine. But the rebuild will come sooner than later and you will need all the talent you can get. In an ideal world, Brees wins the SB this year, retires, and then you have a full 7 round draft in 2020 to start the post Brees era.

 

[yamsi]

Thank you to everyone who contributed so far! I appreciate its a very broad question, maybe even frustratingly so!

It's been really refreshing to see the different perspectives on this. When posting the thread I was very much in the lets move up this year for a 1st or 2nd round pick thats more likely to be a day one starter to go all in on the final years of Brees. I still definitely see some merit in that too.

Reading through though I have been somewhat swayed by some of the comments about keeping the future of the franchise in mind as well as the comments around injuries potentially affecting depth being an important consideration too (i'd hate to put all our eggs in one basket and for the pick to get injured before the season). Also I must say, the specific analysis by 60minutes was both thorough and informative.

I'm still riding the fence on this!

 

[Swimmer]

I respectfully disagree. I think the Saints want to make two picks in the top 80 as I stated previously. If they are able to accomplish this, I could see them taking someone like Grier, whom they like a lot, even though he likely will not factor into our plans for this year. With two picks, they feel they can still add another talent who could contribute immediately. All this said, the Saints feel that depth is of the most immediate importance. Sure, you want someone who contributes but you also want to build quality depth as attrition--either through injuries this season or free agent departures in the future--necessitate having viable replacements on the roster.

I think the Saints want to come away from this draft with a pass rusher, either at DE or DT or both. I think they want to add a pass catcher, maybe two, if they are able to get a TE or WR. I think they also want to add a linebacker and a safety. QB is not a pressing need for "this season" but next year, with none on the roster, it becomes a position that creates a bit of urgency to fill. The Saints like Bridgewater and Hill. With Teddy, you are committing more money while you are also having to re-sign other key cogs on your roster. Grier has a lot of the traits Sean likes so I think if they feel they can add him, even with the logjam it'll create at QB this season, they'll do so. You can always move a guy later if necessary though we have to keep in mind that Tayson's role on the team makes you feel less worried about carrying 4 QBs since he lines up in so many areas. A better way to think about is this--the Saints have carried two fullbacks on the roster before or four tight ends; therefore, you could almost treat Hill as if he was a second fullback or fourth tight end should you add another young signal caller.

At any rate, I could definitely see them adding either a QB or offensive lineman who might not be expected to contribute early on. And they are fully in and are determined to win another one before Drew hangs it up. But they are not going to be so shortsighted. Sean wanted to draft Mahomes and there have been other QBs he liked. Had we stayed put at #27 last year, Lamar Jackson was going to be the pick. So he's not afraid to take someone who might not play immediately and to be quiet honest the Saints feel that absent any picks in this draft, they have the roster in place to compete for a SB. This is why depth is so critical and not just being myopic about adding an immediate contributor though certainly as a team you hoped to.

Wow. You really seem to know your stuff and I appreciate all your insights. Good stuff. The only one I disagree with is Grier. I agree with you that he is a talent and a talent SP would very much like. Your observation about having no QBs on the roster after next season is also spot-on. I have strong reliable insider info that Brees told the FO after the season that this season would be his last. That would make sense in paying Bridgewater so well and Terry not going for a starting gig this year. I suspect that the FO has promised Bridgewater the starting job for the following year. But if they do go after Grier, I will be excited. Imho, there is another QB who would do very well at running an SP offense that we could likely get in the 3rd, Jarret Stidham from Auburn. If we do go for a young QB and Stidham falls to us, that could be a really good move.

 

[Que Que 6]

I hope we break that cycle! Trading up may be good in the short term but it is always bad in the long term. We've got a good roster now but I want us to be good in 2 years, 5 years, etc.

Yup. Unless it is for someone like Clemson QB moving up is like pay day loans. Laugh now..cry later

 

[Bartyboy]

Its what this team does.

 

[Treybad]

Thinking the only way we do trade up is if we send an active player ready to play and picks depending on how high we trade up... the only other option I see is if Payton thinks he has another Graham or Mahomes in his site... then he sacrifices next year like this years draft

 

[Magic_Leather_Jacket]

Do we / should we use 2020 draft capital to move up this year?

Two parter, do you think we will and do you think we should.. What are your thoughts?

I would use 2020 capital to trade into the back half of rd 1 for Will Grier (assuming he’s there). Have a feeling the Pats will take him at 32. Even if they don’t Grier will be a stud and that 5th year option would do wonders for the team to have a top qb (assuming Grier pans out) for cheap so we can pay those pro bowl youngsters we have with expiring contracts in the next few years.

 

[BELOWSEALEVEL]

Grier will be a stud and that 5th year option would do wonders for the team to have a top qb (assuming Grier pans out) for cheap so we can pay those pro bowl youngsters we have with expiring contracts in the next few years.

That's my thinking. A good qb on the cheap while we pay the core around him.

Worked for the Hawks and Wilson.