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Do YOU Believe -Yet?...
How important are these last 4 games?
I previously posted this info in another thread. However, with the Saints impressive win today over the 49ers (The Reggie Bush, Duece Mcallister, Mike McKenzie, & Saints’ Defense Show) …And of course, last week’s beat down of the Falcons, it has become a little more relevant.
If you did not see it earlier, I'm posting it again with updated numbers.
*Note: If you're satisfied with your Saints just having a winning season (9-7), or maybe even making a token appearance in the playoffs, I don't think you'll find this of much interest.
On the other hand, if you believe, after looking at our Saints through 13 weeks and 12 games now, that they have just as much of a legitimate shot as any other good team in the NFC in doing something very special this year, and yes, perhaps even being invited to the BIG dance in February, then you may find this info somewhat intriguing.
I know there are those who preach one-game-at-a-time, and you're correct. But allow yourself to look at history for just a moment, and you may get a glimpse of what this season could (and I emphasize "could") mean for this team, its fans, as well as all of Louisiana & the Gulf Coast Region.
Most of us saw the locker room video after the Falcon's win 2 Sundays ago where Coach Payton told the team (and I'm paraphrasing), "Remember, this is a six game season now, and we took care of one game today. We still have five more to go." Not his exact words, but I'm sure you understood his message.
...And then there was Drew in a recent interview saying basically the same thing. "It's a six game season now."
Well, now your Saints have taken care of their business in 2 of those last 6 games - Two down, and four to go!
I wondered after hearing both of these leaders say the same thing, if it was just a typical second half of the season cliché that almost all teams say'... Or was there something else they were really saying, and more importantly, something the rest of this team was also hearing and believing?
I decided to do a little research to see just how important a team's last six regular season games are in relation to them getting a Super Bowl invitation.
Here's what I did. I went back for the last 10 years in the NFL to look at the teams who had made it to the big dance during this time period.
I chose the last 10 years as my time frame because this is when parity really started to impact the NFL, in particular, the NFC. For example, during the last 10 Super Bowls, 8 different teams have represented the NFC, and six different teams have represented the AFC. With the exception of New England, there has been no other team to make three appearances in the SB during this time period.
What you will see below simply says one thing: Good teams that are HOT (have momentum) at the end of the season, have a far better chance of getting to the BIG DANCE. Not rocket science, right? Wait until you see how important being on a roll - HAVING MOMENTUM - at the end of the year really is.
Of course, home field advantage also comes into play, but even more important, is having a first round bye, especially in the NFC. You’ll see what I mean in just a moment.
So here we go…
Beginning with 1997 Super Bowl for the 1996 Regular season that featured Green Bay and New England, here are the numbers for the past 10 big dances:
Of the 20 teams that have represented the NFC and AFC in the last 10 super bowls, 13 of them finished the regular season (their last 6 games) with a record of at least a 5-1.
That’s 65% of all SB representatives during this time had a final stretch record of 5-1 or 6-0.
Of the 20 teams, 5 finished the regular season with a record of 4-2. That’s 25%.
And finally, only 2 of the 20 teams who’ve gone to the SB in last 10 years, had a record of 3-3 in their last six games - 10%. None of the 20 teams had a losing record in their last 6 games.
*NOTE: One of those 2 teams that finished 3-3 was Carolina, but it’s also important to note that they won their last three regular seasons game that year, and had begun their roll (momentum).
The same is similar of PITT last year. Even though they finished the last 6 games at 4-2, they won their last four.
Here’s another interesting factoid: Of the 20 teams that have gone to the big dance in the past 10 years, 15 of them had a first round bye in the playoffs.
That’s 75% of them. So, if you ever wondered why a first round bye was important, therein lies part of your answer. Of course, injuries also play an important roll as to which post season teams ultimately get to the dance, and our Saints have been relatively healthy this year.
Even more interesting, only 1 NFC team in the past 10 years has made it to the Super Bowl without a first round bye - Carolina.
I’ve included all of the SB participants below for the past 10 years and their last 6 games records for you to see.
What does all of this mean to our Saints?
Well, their 6 game stretch started last Sunday in Atlanta, continued against the 49ers this week, and we're now 2-0. If you see this team running the table during these next 4 games, or only lose once... It may end up being a very special year for these Saints.
If they lose twice (and neither loss is in our last two games), there is still reason for hope.
Just a little FYI that I thought some of you might enjoy seeing… It's not often that we can do this with 4 games left to go in the regular season. :bier:
SB Participants - last 10 years and their records for the last 6 games of the regular season:
_________________
*GB ...... NE 1997
5-1 ...... 4-2
GB ...... *Den 1998
5-1 ....... 3-3
*Den ...... Atl 1999
4-2 ....... 6-0
*Rams ...... Ten 2000
5-1 .......... 5-1
*Bal ...... NYG 2001
6-0 ....... 5-1
*NE ...... Rams 2002
6-0 ...... 6-0
*TB ...... Oak 2003
4-2 ...... 5-1
*NE ...... Car 2004
6-0 ...... 3-3
*NE ...... Phil 2005
5-1 ...... 4-2
*Pitt ...... Sea 2006
4-2 ....... 5-1
NOTE: The * indicates who won the SB that year.
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