Does Day 3 of the Draft Really Matter? (1 Viewer)

[RJ in Lafayette]

I guess it does. Somewhat. Teams need depth, and there are special teams. But drafts are determined by the players picked in the first three rounds (or in the first 110 players selected because there can be good players still available at the top of the 4th round). But the importance of the draft after the third round is much overblown, in part because teams overall do a much job of evaluating players than they were doing 20 years ago.

Look at the Saints' drafts since 2010. In the 4th round, we picked Onyemata and CGJ, who was a high 4th round pick. In the 5th round, our best picks in 11 drafts from 2010 to 2020 were Kenny Stills and Tyler Davidson. In the 6th and 7th rounds over an 11-year period, we did not draft a single player of note. You guys can correct me, but I cannot think of any real contributors we picked in 11 drafts in rounds 4 through 7 other than players cited above and perhaps Corey White.

But go back and look at our third-round picks and get ready to be impressed. My point is that the talent in the draft plummets after the first 100 or so picks, and post-draft evaluations critical of a pick in the 5th round are crazy. Tell me what players a team picked on days 1 and 2 and I will have an opinion of a team's draft. But after day 2, any player becoming a legitimate starter is a longshot.

 

[platinumvinnyv]

I guess it does. Somewhat. Teams need depth, and there are special teams. But drafts are determined by the players picked in the first three rounds (or in the first 110 players selected because there can be good players still available at the top of the 4th round). But the importance of the draft after the third round is much overblown, in part because teams overall do a much job of evaluating players than they were doing 20 years ago.

Look at the Saints' drafts since 2010. In the 4th round, we picked Onyemata and CGJ, who was a high 4th round pick. In the 5th round, our best picks in 11 drafts from 2010 to 2020 were Kenny Stills and Tyler Davidson. In the 6th and 7th rounds over an 11-year period, we did not draft a single player of note. You guys can correct me, but I cannot think of any real contributors we picked in 11 drafts in rounds 4 through 7 other than players cited above and perhaps Corey White.

But go back and look at out third-round picks and get ready to be impressed. My point is that the talent in the draft plummets after the first 100 or so picks, and post-draft evaluations critical of a pick in the 5th round are crazy. Tell me what players a team picked on days 1 and 2. After day 2, any player becoming a legitimate starter is a longshot.

I think the problem is we kept switching defensive schemes and drafted alot of defensive players, since dennis allen's return I feel we have had more success with later round picks contributing even if not starter potential. Also I think our expectations went up with previous success.

 

[1badsailor]

Add jahri Evans, Carl nicks, Marques colston just off the top of my head. The majority of the NFL are the mid rounders not the top guys

 

[DougieV]

#12 ring a bell? Yes, day 3 is important... very.. Marques Colston was one of the best to ever don the black & gold.. by far my favorite offensive player in the history of the franchise

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Evans and Colston were picked 15 years ago, and Nicks 13 years ago. And Evans was a mid-4th round pick, and I concede there are still good players on the board in the 4th round, depending on the strength of a particular draft. Historically, interior offensive linemen have been targeted in the middle rounds, and good receivers have been found after day two. And Colston was a winning lottery ticket.

I am not saying that a quality, multiple-year starter cannot be found after the 3rd round or after the draft with UFAs. I am mindful that there are a handful of superstars who were picked on day three like Tyreek Hill, Kittle and Diggs. Draft enough lower-round players and sign enough UFAs, and you can find some good players and on rare occasion a special player. But I am saying that the probability of drafting good players falls dramatically after round 3 or the first 100 to 110 players picked.

I could list the players, but take a look at our drafts from 2010 to 2020 at the players we picked in round 3 and then all of the players we picked in the next four rounds. The drop-off is staggering.

 

[Consigliere]

Look at the Saints' drafts since 2010. In the 4th round, we picked Onyemata and CGJ, who was a high 4th round pick.

Right but when we drafted CGJ we only had a few picks so we made them count. This year and last year we just threw away the later picks.

Ian Book this year makes as much sense as last year's Taysom-Lite from Mississippi State.

 

[MLU]

I guess it does. Somewhat. Teams need depth, and there are special teams. But drafts are determined by the players picked in the first three rounds (or in the first 110 players selected because there can be good players still available at the top of the 4th round). But the importance of the draft after the third round is much overblown, in part because teams overall do a much job of evaluating players than they were doing 20 years ago.

Look at the Saints' drafts since 2010. In the 4th round, we picked Onyemata and CGJ, who was a high 4th round pick. In the 5th round, our best picks in 11 drafts from 2010 to 2020 were Kenny Stills and Tyler Davidson. In the 6th and 7th rounds over an 11-year period, we did not draft a single player of note. You guys can correct me, but I cannot think of any real contributors we picked in 11 drafts in rounds 4 through 7 other than players cited above and perhaps Corey White.

But go back and look at our third-round picks and get ready to be impressed. My point is that the talent in the draft plummets after the first 100 or so picks, and post-draft evaluations critical of a pick in the 5th round are crazy. Tell me what players a team picked on days 1 and 2 and I will have an opinion of a team's draft. But after day 2, any player becoming a legitimate starter is a longshot.

Pretty sure that 60% of the NFL is comprised of day 3 picks...

 

[jessy]

I guess it does. Somewhat. Teams need depth, and there are special teams. But drafts are determined by the players picked in the first three rounds (or in the first 110 players selected because there can be good players still available at the top of the 4th round). But the importance of the draft after the third round is much overblown, in part because teams overall do a much job of evaluating players than they were doing 20 years ago.

Look at the Saints' drafts since 2010. In the 4th round, we picked Onyemata and CGJ, who was a high 4th round pick. In the 5th round, our best picks in 11 drafts from 2010 to 2020 were Kenny Stills and Tyler Davidson. In the 6th and 7th rounds over an 11-year period, we did not draft a single player of note. You guys can correct me, but I cannot think of any real contributors we picked in 11 drafts in rounds 4 through 7 other than players cited above and perhaps Corey White.

But go back and look at our third-round picks and get ready to be impressed. My point is that the talent in the draft plummets after the first 100 or so picks, and post-draft evaluations critical of a pick in the 5th round are crazy. Tell me what players a team picked on days 1 and 2 and I will have an opinion of a team's draft. But after day 2, any player becoming a legitimate starter is a longshot.

Just gonna leave this right here and see what happens....

George Kittle was a 5th round selection
Marlon Mack was a 4th round selection
Aaron Jones was a 5th round selection
Dak Prescott was a 4th round selection
Tyreek Hill was a 5th round selection

 

[Derrick 63]

I guess it does. Somewhat.

It does to me. I frequently think back to things Gene Stallings used to say when he coached at Alabama. He used to always remind people every senior day that they might not know the names from the deep backups and scout team but those guys are the ones the starters and second team go against at practice and while those kids may not be important to the fans they are to coaches.

Stallings had more impact on my thought process than any coach that has ever been on one of my teams. He thought about life and football the way I want to.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Is there a ‘therefore’ in the OP? We shouldn’t have a day 3 draft anymore?
I will note that teams obviously assign value to those picks, so... they have value
getting rid of them would effect (maybe damage) both trades and probably some college play
- seems like it would be equivalent of getting rid of any currency under $10 or even $5 dollars- it would drive up inflation

and another thing to remind ourselves- these aren’t out of context picks - these are more like ‘can this rookie beat out a 3yr vet’
Obviously that answer is often ‘no’
Which shouldn’t be surprising

 

[jasonsw]

I think day 3 of the draft matters, by the looks of it the Saints landed themselves solid rotational and special teams guys.

Day 3 also sets up UDFA. Could you imagine how different the Saints special teams would look if say another team took a 7th round flyer on Deonte. Or if some team did the same for Granderson and Callaway. N.O would be missing three big key pieces for this upcoming season.

 

[Painkiller]

Tom Brady thinks this is a funny question.

 

[Domeination]

Every day of the draft matters. Signing undrafted FA rookies also matters. The salary cap means teams have to get most of their starters through the draft or rookie free agency, or else they won't be able to afford to field a quality team.

 

[Zack Lee]

Right but when we drafted CGJ we only had a few picks so we made them count. This year and last year we just threw away the later picks.

Ian Book this year makes as much sense as last year's Taysom-Lite from Mississippi State.

So you really think that pick got more effort just because of the scarcity of picks? All the guys that are involved in the selection are staking their careers on the picks. They don’t throw away picks, not on purpose anyway.


As for the topic at hand, yea I think it matters greatly. True it’s more of a lottery pick than the early rounds but that makes for a sweeter reward when your diligence pays off - both for staff and fans. I know few things excite me more than a gem in the rough. Currently Callaway is probably the player I’m most excited to see this year.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

There is a place for the later rounds and UFA signings. My point is that we tend to inflate the importance of the day-three picks. I have seen draft grades where teams receive lower grades because of their day-three picks. First, nobody can evaluate day-three picks--there are reasons they lasted to day three.

Second, I believe that if a team drafted well in the first three rounds, it had a good draft, and if a team did not draft well in the first three rounds, it had a bad draft, regardless of whom it drafted after round three. There are exceptions to this general rule, some of which I cited. But it is in the first three rounds or 110 picks or so where you find your multiple-year, quality starters that form the foundation of the better teams.