Dow closing in on 20,000 (1 Viewer)

efil4stnias

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hasnt been discussed much.

But this is pretty historic.

just 4 years ago we were around 12,000.

8 years ago, bottomed out at 7032.

just pretty awesome to think about it in terms of where we were just 7-8 years ago.
 

JimEverett

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It is amazing given the dire predictions so many made of awhat would happen if trump won.

"If we were to go in 70/30 [for Clinton], and we think the market is 10 percent higher under Clinton than Trump, if Clinton wins it should be up about 3 percent and if Trump wins, it should go down 7 percent," said Eric Zitzewitz, economics professor at Dartmouth College. "

https://www.google.com/amp/www.cnbc...d-trump-wins.html?client=ms-android-sprint-us
 

superchuck500

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But 20K is showing resistance. It's funny how these human perceptions of numbers play into performance.

This morning, Art Cashin (NYSE guru at this point) speculated that we would bump along below 20K today, and then after Europe closes, and if there's nothing else in the news front, buying will come in this afternoon and push it over the line.
 

superchuck500

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It is amazing given the dire predictions so many made of awhat would happen if trump won.

"If we were to go in 70/30 [for Clinton], and we think the market is 10 percent higher under Clinton than Trump, if Clinton wins it should be up about 3 percent and if Trump wins, it should go down 7 percent," said Eric Zitzewitz, economics professor at Dartmouth College. "

https://www.google.com/amp/www.cnbc...d-trump-wins.html?client=ms-android-sprint-us

Yeah, those predictions clearly misunderstood how the market perceived Trump. All of the sell-off predicted for a Trump win was based on long-term policy implications about trade and anti-globalism. But I think the market discounted those concerns and ran on the more near-term benefits of a change in regulatory/executive branch leadership that would favor business and what is almost certainly going to be a favorable tax package in 2017.

If corporate taxes are coming down, the analysts can crunch those numbers into earnings and valuation very quickly - the share values go up right away. Plus, if capital gains are coming down in 2017, there's no reason to take profits or reduce any position of gain until after January 1. That keeps a firm lid on any enthusiasm for selling.

I think the first eight weeks of 2017 will be very interesting.
 
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efil4stnias

efil4stnias

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It is amazing given the dire predictions so many made of awhat would happen if trump won.

"If we were to go in 70/30 [for Clinton], and we think the market is 10 percent higher under Clinton than Trump, if Clinton wins it should be up about 3 percent and if Trump wins, it should go down 7 percent," said Eric Zitzewitz, economics professor at Dartmouth College. "

https://www.google.com/amp/www.cnbc...d-trump-wins.html?client=ms-android-sprint-us
im not talking short term.

and we had a 5% dip day of election- over night the futures were down 7%.

This has no political undertones at all.

I was simply pointing out where the DOW was just 4 and 8 years ago relative to where it is at this moment.

I can see how some may correlate that to "election" but i was merely attempting to show how it roared back after the financial crisis of 2009. Pretty amazing.
 
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efil4stnias

efil4stnias

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But 20K is showing resistance. It's funny how these human perceptions of numbers play into performance.

This morning, Art Cashin (NYSE guru at this point) speculated that we would bump along below 20K today, and then after Europe closes, and if there's nothing else in the news front, buying will come in this afternoon and push it over the line.
LOL Art "Cash-In". (your chips ) LOLOL

Yeah and its been doing just that. bouncing just below.

But i think the first 2-3 months of 2017 will be just as you said...very interesting indeed. especially if the new Trump Administration follow thru on those ideas.
 

Saint_Ward

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It is amazing given the dire predictions so many made of awhat would happen if trump won.

"If we were to go in 70/30 [for Clinton], and we think the market is 10 percent higher under Clinton than Trump, if Clinton wins it should be up about 3 percent and if Trump wins, it should go down 7 percent," said Eric Zitzewitz, economics professor at Dartmouth College. "

https://www.google.com/amp/www.cnbc...d-trump-wins.html?client=ms-android-sprint-us
The election is a small blip in the overall growth since 2009. I think framing it as a political/election argument is nebulous at best. Overall there has been very good economic growth. We just need to see wage growth grow with it, now that Unemployment (and the U-6 Unemployment counting under employed) are back down to pre-crash numbers.

The argument that was positive for Trump was tax cuts. So, you're seeing a bump due to that. Also the defense sector jumped up with the idea of more spending. Of course, since coming out on Twitter about the F-35 program, LMT is still down approximately $10/share. So, that's hit or miss. The negatives to Trump and the economy was the unpredictable portion of the desire to levy tariffs and other trade barriers. However, there are no specifics to that, so the market can't react to it much. But everyone loves a tax break, no matter how we get it, so that's why you're seeing what you're seeing. Also, notice how for Profit Prison's shot back up.

Regardless, the Dow was running around 18k for the majority of the last 2 years, with just two significant dips. So, there have been significant upward pressures well before early November.
 

TXSAINTFAN

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But 20K is showing resistance. It's funny how these human perceptions of numbers play into performance.

This morning, Art Cashin (NYSE guru at this point) speculated that we would bump along below 20K today, and then after Europe closes, and if there's nothing else in the news front, buying will come in this afternoon and push it over the line.
Saw that. We must start the day watching the same network.
 

superchuck500

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Saw that. We must start the day watching the same network.
I must be getting old. I pretty much listen to CNBC anytime I'm in the car between 9am and 6pm. Financials are now more interesting to me than listening to music in the car.
 

BIGSAINTSFAN

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Trump doesn't have a dang thing to do with the current stock market. Try giving credit to where credit is due. President Obama deserves all the credit. When he took over, the stock market was barely over 6000. We have seen it rise to over 19000 due to his leadership. Now that it's close to 20000, you want to hail that clown Trump. Give Obama his just due. The man has earned it.
 

superchuck500

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Trump doesn't have a dang thing to do with the current stock market. Try giving credit to where credit is due. President Obama deserves all the credit. When he took over, the stock market was barely over 6000. We have seen it rise to over 19000 due to his leadership. Now that it's close to 20000, you want to hail that clown Trump. Give Obama his just due. The man has earned it.
The stock market has done well during the Obama administration, particularly relative to other first world markets. A lot of that has to do with Fed rate policy - but it has been a success. But to say that Trump doesn't have anything to do with the post-election rally is just not accurate. It's not anything mysterious or some kind of cult of personality, it is precisely because Trump has promised to reduce corporate taxes, cut down on regulation (compliance is costly and can be stifling), and other favorable industry-specific policies. Those things are indeed driving the market to 20K - though it wouldn't be happening if the underlying economy wasn't doing well. The Fed just raised rates based on booked performance, not anticipation.
 

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The bottom line is if you haven't profited the last eight years then shame on you.
I'm 48 and I've been active in the market since my freshman year in college. I lost a bunch in 87. The 90s were pretty darn good. I give the early 0s a pass due to Bush's bungling and 9/11, but the best 8 years the market has ever seen have been under Barrack Hussein Obama.

And like you said, "if you haven't profited the last eight years" then you weren't invested.
 

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