Dow closing in on 20,000 (1 Viewer)

[dtc]

The bottom line is if you haven't profited the last eight years then shame on you.

I'm 48 and I've been active in the market since my freshman year in college. I lost a bunch in 87. The 90s were pretty darn good. I give the early 0s a pass due to Bush's bungling and 9/11, but the best 8 years the market has ever seen have been under Barrack Hussein Obama.

And like you said, "if you haven't profited the last eight years" then you weren't invested.

 

[CountWhoDat]

I heard the talking heads on CNBC talking about the fabled return of the "retail investor", who mostly has been left out of the bull market of the last 8 years while the institutional investors/hedge funds reaped the profits of the wild bull market. They mentioned the possibility of "DOW 20,000" making headlines and bringing people who lost trust in the market back into the fold.

Every time I hear something like this, as an investor/trader, it terrifies me. When the guy down the street starts talking about the market/giving stock tips/etc. then the party is essentially over. Putting aside any political considerations, I think we're getting to that point.

On the other hand, if the regulatory/tax reforms that have been promised do not come to pass, the so-called "Trump Rally" will evaporate quickly.

 

[bclemms]

I heard the talking heads on CNBC talking about the fabled return of the "retail investor", who mostly has been left out of the bull market of the last 8 years while the institutional investors/hedge funds reaped the profits of the wild bull market. They mentioned the possibility of "DOW 20,000" making headlines and bringing people who lost trust in the market back into the fold.

Every time I hear something like this, as an investor/trader, it terrifies me. When the guy down the street starts talking about the market/giving stock tips/etc. then the party is essentially over. Putting aside any political considerations, I think we're getting to that point.

On the other hand, if the regulatory/tax reforms that have been promised do not come to pass, the so-called "Trump Rally" will evaporate quickly.

Couldn't agree more. Used this and only this thought process to make money in gold and oil over the last decade.

When you start seeing all the scrap gold commercials and investments on gold coins as infomercials, it means the price is artificially high and a correction is coming. The big money needs the little money to move in so they can start taking profits. Time for all the investors that always get burned in the stock market to move in because they finally have confidence in it again. Problem is, they always get burned because they don't have confidence until record highs are being posted.

 

[dtc]

I heard the talking heads on CNBC talking about the fabled return of the "retail investor", who mostly has been left out of the bull market of the last 8 years while the institutional investors/hedge funds reaped the profits of the wild bull market. They mentioned the possibility of "DOW 20,000" making headlines and bringing people who lost trust in the market back into the fold.

Every time I hear something like this, as an investor/trader, it terrifies me. When the guy down the street starts talking about the market/giving stock tips/etc. then the party is essentially over. Putting aside any political considerations, I think we're getting to that point.

On the other hand, if the regulatory/tax reforms that have been promised do not come to pass, the so-called "Trump Rally" will evaporate quickly.

I freaked at 14k. Couldn't fathom 16.

Call me a sissy, but with inflation on the horizon I'm in dirt.

 

[superchuck500]

I heard the talking heads on CNBC talking about the fabled return of the "retail investor", who mostly has been left out of the bull market of the last 8 years while the institutional investors/hedge funds reaped the profits of the wild bull market. They mentioned the possibility of "DOW 20,000" making headlines and bringing people who lost trust in the market back into the fold.

Every time I hear something like this, as an investor/trader, it terrifies me. When the guy down the street starts talking about the market/giving stock tips/etc. then the party is essentially over. Putting aside any political considerations, I think we're getting to that point.

On the other hand, if the regulatory/tax reforms that have been promised do not come to pass, the so-called "Trump Rally" will evaporate quickly.

There's an indicator of market tops that is based on how many articles about the market are in the front page of major newspapers (or featured on their websites). That goes directly to what you're saying - but a few days ago someone said this indicator was still fairly low. I don't think there's a pull back before the end of the year absent a geopolitical event. But the first handful of weeks will tell us what the smart money thinks about the longer viability of those valuations.

I think there will be a tax package, just because GOP has both houses. Tax reform is popular enough that there might even be some minimal democratic support if there is some middle class relief. All they need is to get cloture and it's a done deal.

 

[superchuck500]

Dow 20K continuing to show resistance. The market is open normal schedule through the end of Friday. Not sure if it's going to get there.

 

[superchuck500]

20K might happen this morning. Stronger than expected Q3 GDP and some strong earnings from a couple of Dow components overnight might get us over the top for inter-day. If it holds to close might be another matter.

 

[efil4stnias]

20K might happen this morning. Stronger than expected Q3 GDP and some strong earnings from a couple of Dow components overnight might get us over the top for inter-day. If it holds to close might be another matter.

maybe just waiting on 1/2 to drop the hammer and bust thru 20k?

Problem i would have is that kicking off 2017 over 20k is can it sustain that? id rather hit now and pull back some after the New Year as to not set "the bar" all that lofty.

 

[superchuck500]

maybe just waiting on 1/2 to drop the hammer and bust thru 20k?

Problem i would have is that kicking off 2017 over 20k is can it sustain that? id rather hit now and pull back some after the New Year as to not set "the bar" all that lofty.

Based on tax expectations, people aren't taking profits right now - and that provides a high floor. So it wouldn't be surprising at all to see some selling after the new year, and then a more appropriate trading range will likely establish and vary based on events.

 

[efil4stnias]

Based on tax expectations, people aren't taking profits right now - and that provides a high floor. So it wouldn't be surprising at all to see some selling after the new year, and then a more appropriate trading range will likely establish and vary based on events.

im very tempted right now

CVX. Got in back in Feb 2016. ( think we had a thread here where i was lamenting selling Apple and getting into FB and CVX - i sold FB at 118 - jumped into COP - Conoco. But held on to CVX )

its tad under 52 week high right now.

sigh...idk. lol

 

[where yat brah]

Couple people on CNBC yesterday talking how a lot of the recent run has been driven by Goldman Sachs. Said 20K won't get broached until retailers start to join in.

 

[superchuck500]

Couple people on CNBC yesterday talking how a lot of the recent run has been driven by Goldman Sachs. Said 20K won't get broached until retailers start to join in.

About 22% of the "Trump rally" on the Dow is Goldman. Another significant portion is Cat.

But we're so close, any sort of buying program could put it over. I think there's natural resistance there and the world events earlier this week (Turkey and Germany) followed by mixed economic data now (the positive Q3 number has been followed by weaker than expected personal income and real estate) is letting a bit of the steam out on the rally.