Draft deep at CB shallow at DT...it's obvious... (1 Viewer)

morals99

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I believe it's a common assessment that our two greatest needs lie at CB and DT. We are well aware of the elite DT's Dorsey and Ellis, and the run of 6 top tier corners. In my opinion there are 6 corners that can justify a first round grade. Will they all go in the first, hopefully not, but they could.

Lets assume the following:

Miami - Chris Long
St. Louis - Jake Long
Atlanta - Matt Ryan (possibly Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis)
Oakland - Darren McFadden
Kansas City - Ryan Clady
NYJ - Vernon Gholston
***** New England *****

This is where we need to be, whether it's Dorsey and Ellis or one or the other available this is our slot to move up and get our guy.

The cost? It would cost us 200 points to move there and our 3rd is worth 220pts. It would be just enough to sway the Patriots. I believe the Pats need a corner, and this draft is loaded at corner and they could still land their guy at #10.

So now we're off the clock with a franchise rookie DT. The first corner to come off the board now will probably be at #10 to New England and i'm sure it would be McClevin.

This would be perfect because we could land any of these 5 corners in round 2:

Jenkins
Flowers
Talib
Porter
Cason
DRC
 

BWS

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1st and 2nd Round of the Draft

I believe it's a common assessment that our two greatest needs lie at CB and DT. We are well aware of the elite DT's Dorsey and Ellis, and the run of 6 top tier corners. In my opinion there are 6 corners that can justify a first round grade. Will they all go in the first, hopefully not, but they could.

Lets assume the following:

Miami - Chris Long
St. Louis - Jake Long
Atlanta - Matt Ryan (possibly Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis)
Oakland - Darren McFadden
Kansas City - Ryan Clady
NYJ - Vernon Gholston
***** New England *****

This is where we need to be, whether it's Dorsey and Ellis or one or the other available this is our slot to move up and get our guy.

The cost? It would cost us 200 points to move there and our 3rd is worth 220pts. It would be just enough to sway the Patriots. I believe the Pats need a corner, and this draft is loaded at corner and they could still land their guy at #10.

So now we're off the clock with a franchise rookie DT. The first corner to come off the board now will probably be at #10 to New England and i'm sure it would be McClevin.

This would be perfect because we could land any of these 5 corners in round 2:

Jenkins
Flowers
Talib
Porter
Cason
DRC

I would phrase it differently; we could land 1 or 2 of these 5 corners in round 2. I think that there is going to be a modest run of CBs from the mid 1st round to early 2nd round, but that some that were predicted to go in the late 1st round will fall.

An ideal draft for the Saints would be drafting Dorsey or Ellis in the 1st round and one of the top 8 CBs in the 2nd round.
 

cruize

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So, with willing partners, the Saints could trade down six spots and pick up two thirds? That would be nice.
 

bergeaux

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First, I will say that I have never been a fan of trading up unless it's fairly inexpensive and I don't think it will be.

Second, while it is accurate to say that this draft is deep at mid-to-high level CBs, I wouldn't say that it was "shallow" at DT. It's just not AS deep as CB. I too want us to get a DT in the first if possible, but I wouldn't be upset if we got any of the top 5 DTs out there. Laws appears to be a great kid that I personally want us to get if we don't get Dorsey or Ellis. Bahlmer has some glow around him, although I prefer Laws.

I don't think that any of the CBs are worth the 10 pick, but one will probably go early just because there are so many of them. I prefer we take a DT early and if Ellis and Dorsey are gone IF we can trade back, we take Laws late in the first.
 
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morals99

morals99

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First, I will say that I have never been a fan of trading up unless it's fairly inexpensive and I don't think it will be.

Second, while it is accurate to say that this draft is deep at mid-to-high level CBs, I wouldn't say that it was "shallow" at DT. It's just not AS deep as CB. I too want us to get a DT in the first if possible, but I wouldn't be upset if we got any of the top 5 DTs out there. Laws appears to be a great kid that I personally want us to get if we don't get Dorsey or Ellis. Bahlmer has some glow around him, although I prefer Laws.

I don't think that any of the CBs are worth the 10 pick, but one will probably go early just because there are so many of them. I prefer we take a DT early and if Ellis and Dorsey are gone IF we can trade back, we take Laws late in the first.

It is shallow at DT. You have two elite guys then a major drop off to some marginal LATE 1st round to 2nd round talents like Balmer and Laws...then Okam etc.

I believe when we're on the clock in the 2nd round we will have 2 of these 3 starring us in the face:

Porter
Cason
Flowers
 

meily

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First, I will say that I have never been a fan of trading up unless it's fairly inexpensive and I don't think it will be.

Second, while it is accurate to say that this draft is deep at mid-to-high level CBs, I wouldn't say that it was "shallow" at DT. It's just not AS deep as CB. I too want us to get a DT in the first if possible, but I wouldn't be upset if we got any of the top 5 DTs out there. Laws appears to be a great kid that I personally want us to get if we don't get Dorsey or Ellis. Bahlmer has some glow around him, although I prefer Laws.

I don't think that any of the CBs are worth the 10 pick, but one will probably go early just because there are so many of them. I prefer we take a DT early and if Ellis and Dorsey are gone IF we can trade back, we take Laws late in the first.






I agree, except for the cb at #10 is concerned, I think if there is someone we want we should take them....people act like its there own personal money paying these guys, somebody is gonna be drafted at #10 by us, and nobody seem to think anybody outside of Ellis, Dorsey or Clady is worth the pick.....I dont get that.
 

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Dude, this is the exact sinerio i see playing out. I have been telling everyone that we NEED to get to 7 to get Ellis. He is a monster. Just think, we could get Ellis for out front 4, which inturn betters our LB corp. It also betters our DB feild because of a better pass rush and we can add a guy like Flowers to make it that much better.

Just look at this starting D:

Front 4:
Grant, Hollis, Ellis, Smith

(WOW that is a line!!! with backup that are good in Clancy, Young and McCray). That is like having 2 quality starting front 4's.


LB cop:
Fujita, Vilmmmmmaaaa, Morgan (backup Shanle and Simoneau)

Very good LB corp if healthy


DB feild:
Flowers, Gay, Haper, Bullocks (McKenzie back in early to middle of season and moving Gay to the Nickel)

Not to bad of a DB backfield. DLine will make them better than they are with the monster pass rush. When McKenzie comes back it will be even better.
 

David Robbins

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This would be perfect because we could land any of these 5 corners in round 2:

Jenkins
Flowers
Talib
Porter
Cason
DRC

Dude, of the guys you have listed here, only Porter and possibly Flowers will go in the 2nd. l The rest are 1st round picks.
 
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morals99

morals99

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Dude, of the guys you have listed here, only Porter and possibly Flowers will go in the 2nd. l The rest are 1st round picks.


Of those 6, I believe 2 will fall. The two likely are Cason and Porter in my opinion. However we are talking about 7 first round corners. They can all be considered first round grades, but I believe the position debt out weighs the needs this year and we're gonna see some guys slide. Flowers, Cason, Porter, Jenkins, Talib all have enough concerns and uncertainty that they can all slide. It will be very interesting, and even DRC has concerns but he's also red hot right now so I don't see him sliding to far.


The only point i'm trying to make is that the chances of us landing a starting DT and starting CB in rounds 1 & 2 are FAR greater if we draft DT & CB respectively. If you go CB & DT then you fall to the second tier at DT (Laws, Okam, Balmer **not likely**)

I believe the "first tier" corners are a large group and you can make an arguement for 6 different guys at least being in the same league. McClevin I guess is the most clear cut favorite...but even still some have Talib and DRC ahead of him sometimes.
 
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morals99

morals99

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I just looked up Kirwans latest b/c I believe he is widely respected on this board...in his first round mock he has Jenkins and Flowers out of the first round and Cason going #27.

I believe Jenkins is in the top 3 corners, and if he fell to #33 I trade up 9 spots and make that happen. Kirwin's mock, and i'm sure you can find the same trend throughout, shows that 2 really good corners will fall to the 2nd round. Will they make it 10 more picks to us? Maybe not, but we're a 4th round pick away from moving up and assuring ourselves of that player.
 

bergeaux

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To add to all this I also wanted to point out that the "hit" rate in the first year for CBs in the first round is MUCH less than the "hit" rate for LB, DT and most other positions in the first year. (incidentally WR is in the same area as CBs)

So if we do draft a CB it is unlikely that they will be starting for us, even if they are one of the top ones. We saw last year that there were a couple of high draft picks at CB that played early in the year and didn't really start to do well until late in the year. CB is one of the harder positions to transition to the NFL in.

DT is easier, and I would rather put stock in DT and see more immediate results. We're going to need it on defense.
 

bergeaux

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I just looked up Kirwans latest b/c I believe he is widely respected on this board...in his first round mock he has Jenkins and Flowers out of the first round and Cason going #27.

I believe Jenkins is in the top 3 corners, and if he fell to #33 I trade up 9 spots and make that happen. Kirwin's mock, and i'm sure you can find the same trend throughout, shows that 2 really good corners will fall to the 2nd round. Will they make it 10 more picks to us? Maybe not, but we're a 4th round pick away from moving up and assuring ourselves of that player.

I think Jenkins is my favorite CB of the top group. If he fell to the second round... I would be very happy (unless we had already picked a CB in the first...)
 

meily

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I think were in a postion to get a good player in the first and second round...I real confident in that, because we chose pretty high in each round.
 

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DT is the most important need for us on defense. Just upgrading this one position can upgrade the quality of play we get from the LB's and CB's by making it easier for them.
 

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