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This will get updated after the combine and again in early April. I am working on the RBs, FBs, and WRs now. Should have them out soon. Then comes TEs and the O-line. Defense comes last.
QBs: I heard a well known NFL Network announcer say there could be as many as 4 QBs drafted in the 1st round – he’s wrong. At the absolute most, in magical fairyland, there could be 3, and that is EXTREMELY unlikely. I realize it’s very early, but here goes: Maybe 2 of these guys come close to a 1st round grade. The next 2 would be reaches at the end of the 1st round but have a slight chance. The rest are mid to late round prospects at best. After the top-4, it’s extreme buyer beware. Rodgers is the one from down in the pack who truly could move up some, but I don’t see definitive starting ability in any of the QBs after the first 4.
1. Geno Smith, West Virginia, 6’3 222lbs – SR – 4.70est. He is easily the most explosive and dominating QB in this class. He can set his feet and take over a game with his arm. He’s a 3 year starter that has dominated his position for nearly 3 years. Had he attended the Senior Bowl and dominated like I believe he could have, he could’ve move back into the top-10. He has a beautiful over the top release and has huge hands. He generally plays smart and he has the natural God-given ability to make throws that very few humans can make. He has excellent movement skills but is a thrower first. He can be as accurate as any QB out there and is much less inconsistent than any other QB in this class. He has upside and franchise starting ability. When he is on, he is close to the top-2 guys from last year, but a bad team and his desire to do too much hurt him at times this year. He lacks Luck’ and RGIII’s polish though. He still has some raw qualities.
2. Matt Barkley, USC, 6’2 234lbs – SR – 4.85est. He is the most pro ready of this group but has limited upside. He is a 4 year starter who understands and can read most any type of defense. He played in a pro-style offense and has a fairly active arm and plays smart. He is mechanical though and he lacks any special trait athletically. When he runs, he looks a little awkward – he’s a pure pocket passer who needs extra help from his O-line. He looks stiff at times and his arm strength is only average. He really has to step into deep throws and outs. However, he is a smart, accurate, and tough Kyle Ortan type QB who can start and succeed if put in a good situation. He knows and loves the game. He will give a team everything he has and work hard. He reminds me a lot of a slightly better version of Jimmy Clausen.
3. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, 6’2 219lbs – rSR – 4.75est. He has maybe the liveliest arm of this group (not strongest) and he can really release it quickly with force and spin. He makes passes few can make and he plays with heart and passion. He is a gunshooter (Brett Favre) type of guy who just loves to play the game. He is even built a lot like Favre. He is pretty athletic and has solid movement skills – he can be dangerous running the ball on occasion. He played in a pro-style offense and can read a lot of defenses, but his game is much more read-and-react. He needs decision-making polish and he needs to show he’ll work harder in the film room. He can make any throw and dominated the SEC as a junior when he had a great group of WRs to sling it too. He generally plays smart, but is he a hard enough worker? He’s a game day guy and that doesn’t always (rarely) work in the NFL. I love his heart and his skills, but I don’t love his mind and mental make-up all the time. He could be great or he could be the next Drew Stanton (very similar type of player).
4. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse, 6’2 224lbs – rSR – 4.75est. This 3 year starter really came on as a senior and became a dominant force in the Big East. Nassib is a combination of both Barkley and Wilson. He has a slightly better arm than Barkley and is slightly less athletic and relentless than Wilson (both are pretty good for him). I love how this guy works and sees the field – he can take over a game at times with his mind. He can make most any throw (he does have to set up some on the deep outs to be accurate though). He has a perfect over the top delivery and his footwork in the pocket is well coached and impressive. He rarely takes sacks because of his pocket awareness. He moves well and has solid athletic skills. He makes good reads and is super smart. He could sneak into the bottom of the 1st round and may end up being the second QB taken.
5. Zac Dysert, Miami of OH, 6’3 226lbs – rSR – 4.70est. I like this kid’s heart and athletic talent a lot, but he’s been thrown around from one offense to another every year for the past four years – he’s never been able to be consistently coached and it shows in his play and I’m not sure he has the head for the NFL-game. He questions himself and seems timid at times. As a senior, he rarely threw the ball more than 20 yards. Having said that, he is super athletic and tough. He is a legitimate threat to run the ball at any time. He can be dangerous in the running game and that gives him extra value in today’s league. He is a strong leader whom teammates love. He has a strong arm and can make just about any throw. He can run and move almost as well as Geno Smith and easily ranks 2nd to him in terms of athleticism in this class. He’s a slight project who needs some consistency, but he has upside. If he can gain some accuracy and confidence, he could possibly become a starter.
6. Mike Glennon, NC State, 6’6 222lbs – rSR – 4.90est. Everyone loves to talk about this kid’s arm strength, and he has that talent in abundance, but he lacks any other remotely special qualities to go along with it. I’ve watched 5 of his games already, and I haven’t been impressed by any of them. He has eratic foot movement – makes really stupid decisions far too often – he doesn’t seem to see the field well and he isn’t a special leader. In the Tennessee game, he had chance after chance to show skills and he blew them all. In the Vandy game, he looked and played like a high schooler. The only reason I put him this high is that he is smart enough to possibly fix some of his silliness, but if he’s ever a full-time starter who can truly lift his team on a regular basis, I’d be extremely surprised. He might slide down on this list some.
7. Tyler Bray, Tennessee, 6’4 214lbs – JR – 4.90est. Everything I said about Glennon can pretty much be said about Bray. He was benched on numerous occasion in 2012 for making absolutely silly decisions. He doesn’t seem to read defenses well and he just throws the ball up way too much. He has massive arm strength and can really put the ball on a player. He is able to change his pace on his throws well and there isn’t any throw he can’t make. He has an awkward delivery at times though, and it isn’t always super quick. Also, his accuracy is probably the worst of this entire group. He looks to have more overall football smarts than Glennon but he lacks any special intangibles and he looks frail. It’s also very hard to overlook the fact that coach Dooley wanted to replace him as the starter.
8. Landry Jones, Oklahoma, 6’4 224lbs – rSR – 4.80est. This could be the major oddball of the group – especially if someone looks at old tape and falls in love with his potential. It’s hard to not like him as a person – he’s smart, tough, and beloved by his teammates. He is a real good guy and he loves to play football. Looking at his 2010 tape, he looks like a franchise type guy but he’s gotten progressively worse every year in terms of decision making and how he plays the game – his accuracy has never improved. He has a good arm, a great football body, he plays on his toes and can generally read defenses well. However, he drops his arm too much, looks screwy and confused when certain defenses come his way, and, most importantly, he lacks real accuracy. He misses on way too many throws or makes his receivers work too hard to make catches. He could be a solid back up with some good coaching, but he’ll always just be a tease.
9. E.J. Manuel, Florida St., 6’4 236lbs – rSR – 4.70. I want to love this guy – I’ve been waiting three years for him to give me reason to love him. He never has. He has every tool you could possibly want a QB to have: he’s build great, has a strong arm, has a generally quick and high release, he’s very athletic and mobile, and he’s smart, but there is just something seriously missing in terms of his mental make-up (how he sees the field) and his natural mechanics. He is very robotic in terms of his passing mechanics and has serious trouble whenever he has to improvise. He has trouble getting his feet right at times when throwing and he’s just not a natural thrower. He doesn’t read defenses well despite playing in a pro-style offense. He’s a true enigma – he should be great, but in reality, he’s just barely average.
10. Jordan Rodgers, Vanderbilt, 6’1 214lbs – rSR – 4.75est. Everyone knows who his brother is, but Jordan has really started to make a name for himself. He took Vandy to back to back winning season and bowl games – WOW!!! He is a super smart, very athletic guy with a solid to great release, and who has pretty good accuracy. He’s tough as nails and he is a winner. He wants to get better and he’ll outwork almost everyone else. He can run and throw on the run and his teammates love him. He can read defenses and plays equally well under center or in the shotgun. However, he doesn’t have a very strong arm and his passes tend to flutter far too often. He can run and has some athleticism, but he looks a little tight at times and he isn’t very big. He will have to play in an offense that doesn’t ask him to drive the ball down the field. After 15 to 20 yards, his accuracy drops dramatically. He reminds me of a smaller version of Steve Walsh – very smart and loves the game, but has serious physical drawbacks.
The only other 2 draftable QBs are Collin Klein (who will likely make a position shift) and Mark Scott who was a one year starter at Arizona. In all reality, those are the only 12 guys with any chance of getting drafted. Dayne Crist has great tools, but has never put it together.
QBs: I heard a well known NFL Network announcer say there could be as many as 4 QBs drafted in the 1st round – he’s wrong. At the absolute most, in magical fairyland, there could be 3, and that is EXTREMELY unlikely. I realize it’s very early, but here goes: Maybe 2 of these guys come close to a 1st round grade. The next 2 would be reaches at the end of the 1st round but have a slight chance. The rest are mid to late round prospects at best. After the top-4, it’s extreme buyer beware. Rodgers is the one from down in the pack who truly could move up some, but I don’t see definitive starting ability in any of the QBs after the first 4.
1. Geno Smith, West Virginia, 6’3 222lbs – SR – 4.70est. He is easily the most explosive and dominating QB in this class. He can set his feet and take over a game with his arm. He’s a 3 year starter that has dominated his position for nearly 3 years. Had he attended the Senior Bowl and dominated like I believe he could have, he could’ve move back into the top-10. He has a beautiful over the top release and has huge hands. He generally plays smart and he has the natural God-given ability to make throws that very few humans can make. He has excellent movement skills but is a thrower first. He can be as accurate as any QB out there and is much less inconsistent than any other QB in this class. He has upside and franchise starting ability. When he is on, he is close to the top-2 guys from last year, but a bad team and his desire to do too much hurt him at times this year. He lacks Luck’ and RGIII’s polish though. He still has some raw qualities.
2. Matt Barkley, USC, 6’2 234lbs – SR – 4.85est. He is the most pro ready of this group but has limited upside. He is a 4 year starter who understands and can read most any type of defense. He played in a pro-style offense and has a fairly active arm and plays smart. He is mechanical though and he lacks any special trait athletically. When he runs, he looks a little awkward – he’s a pure pocket passer who needs extra help from his O-line. He looks stiff at times and his arm strength is only average. He really has to step into deep throws and outs. However, he is a smart, accurate, and tough Kyle Ortan type QB who can start and succeed if put in a good situation. He knows and loves the game. He will give a team everything he has and work hard. He reminds me a lot of a slightly better version of Jimmy Clausen.
3. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, 6’2 219lbs – rSR – 4.75est. He has maybe the liveliest arm of this group (not strongest) and he can really release it quickly with force and spin. He makes passes few can make and he plays with heart and passion. He is a gunshooter (Brett Favre) type of guy who just loves to play the game. He is even built a lot like Favre. He is pretty athletic and has solid movement skills – he can be dangerous running the ball on occasion. He played in a pro-style offense and can read a lot of defenses, but his game is much more read-and-react. He needs decision-making polish and he needs to show he’ll work harder in the film room. He can make any throw and dominated the SEC as a junior when he had a great group of WRs to sling it too. He generally plays smart, but is he a hard enough worker? He’s a game day guy and that doesn’t always (rarely) work in the NFL. I love his heart and his skills, but I don’t love his mind and mental make-up all the time. He could be great or he could be the next Drew Stanton (very similar type of player).
4. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse, 6’2 224lbs – rSR – 4.75est. This 3 year starter really came on as a senior and became a dominant force in the Big East. Nassib is a combination of both Barkley and Wilson. He has a slightly better arm than Barkley and is slightly less athletic and relentless than Wilson (both are pretty good for him). I love how this guy works and sees the field – he can take over a game at times with his mind. He can make most any throw (he does have to set up some on the deep outs to be accurate though). He has a perfect over the top delivery and his footwork in the pocket is well coached and impressive. He rarely takes sacks because of his pocket awareness. He moves well and has solid athletic skills. He makes good reads and is super smart. He could sneak into the bottom of the 1st round and may end up being the second QB taken.
5. Zac Dysert, Miami of OH, 6’3 226lbs – rSR – 4.70est. I like this kid’s heart and athletic talent a lot, but he’s been thrown around from one offense to another every year for the past four years – he’s never been able to be consistently coached and it shows in his play and I’m not sure he has the head for the NFL-game. He questions himself and seems timid at times. As a senior, he rarely threw the ball more than 20 yards. Having said that, he is super athletic and tough. He is a legitimate threat to run the ball at any time. He can be dangerous in the running game and that gives him extra value in today’s league. He is a strong leader whom teammates love. He has a strong arm and can make just about any throw. He can run and move almost as well as Geno Smith and easily ranks 2nd to him in terms of athleticism in this class. He’s a slight project who needs some consistency, but he has upside. If he can gain some accuracy and confidence, he could possibly become a starter.
6. Mike Glennon, NC State, 6’6 222lbs – rSR – 4.90est. Everyone loves to talk about this kid’s arm strength, and he has that talent in abundance, but he lacks any other remotely special qualities to go along with it. I’ve watched 5 of his games already, and I haven’t been impressed by any of them. He has eratic foot movement – makes really stupid decisions far too often – he doesn’t seem to see the field well and he isn’t a special leader. In the Tennessee game, he had chance after chance to show skills and he blew them all. In the Vandy game, he looked and played like a high schooler. The only reason I put him this high is that he is smart enough to possibly fix some of his silliness, but if he’s ever a full-time starter who can truly lift his team on a regular basis, I’d be extremely surprised. He might slide down on this list some.
7. Tyler Bray, Tennessee, 6’4 214lbs – JR – 4.90est. Everything I said about Glennon can pretty much be said about Bray. He was benched on numerous occasion in 2012 for making absolutely silly decisions. He doesn’t seem to read defenses well and he just throws the ball up way too much. He has massive arm strength and can really put the ball on a player. He is able to change his pace on his throws well and there isn’t any throw he can’t make. He has an awkward delivery at times though, and it isn’t always super quick. Also, his accuracy is probably the worst of this entire group. He looks to have more overall football smarts than Glennon but he lacks any special intangibles and he looks frail. It’s also very hard to overlook the fact that coach Dooley wanted to replace him as the starter.
8. Landry Jones, Oklahoma, 6’4 224lbs – rSR – 4.80est. This could be the major oddball of the group – especially if someone looks at old tape and falls in love with his potential. It’s hard to not like him as a person – he’s smart, tough, and beloved by his teammates. He is a real good guy and he loves to play football. Looking at his 2010 tape, he looks like a franchise type guy but he’s gotten progressively worse every year in terms of decision making and how he plays the game – his accuracy has never improved. He has a good arm, a great football body, he plays on his toes and can generally read defenses well. However, he drops his arm too much, looks screwy and confused when certain defenses come his way, and, most importantly, he lacks real accuracy. He misses on way too many throws or makes his receivers work too hard to make catches. He could be a solid back up with some good coaching, but he’ll always just be a tease.
9. E.J. Manuel, Florida St., 6’4 236lbs – rSR – 4.70. I want to love this guy – I’ve been waiting three years for him to give me reason to love him. He never has. He has every tool you could possibly want a QB to have: he’s build great, has a strong arm, has a generally quick and high release, he’s very athletic and mobile, and he’s smart, but there is just something seriously missing in terms of his mental make-up (how he sees the field) and his natural mechanics. He is very robotic in terms of his passing mechanics and has serious trouble whenever he has to improvise. He has trouble getting his feet right at times when throwing and he’s just not a natural thrower. He doesn’t read defenses well despite playing in a pro-style offense. He’s a true enigma – he should be great, but in reality, he’s just barely average.
10. Jordan Rodgers, Vanderbilt, 6’1 214lbs – rSR – 4.75est. Everyone knows who his brother is, but Jordan has really started to make a name for himself. He took Vandy to back to back winning season and bowl games – WOW!!! He is a super smart, very athletic guy with a solid to great release, and who has pretty good accuracy. He’s tough as nails and he is a winner. He wants to get better and he’ll outwork almost everyone else. He can run and throw on the run and his teammates love him. He can read defenses and plays equally well under center or in the shotgun. However, he doesn’t have a very strong arm and his passes tend to flutter far too often. He can run and has some athleticism, but he looks a little tight at times and he isn’t very big. He will have to play in an offense that doesn’t ask him to drive the ball down the field. After 15 to 20 yards, his accuracy drops dramatically. He reminds me of a smaller version of Steve Walsh – very smart and loves the game, but has serious physical drawbacks.
The only other 2 draftable QBs are Collin Klein (who will likely make a position shift) and Mark Scott who was a one year starter at Arizona. In all reality, those are the only 12 guys with any chance of getting drafted. Dayne Crist has great tools, but has never put it together.
