Analysis Drafting a QB in the first 10 picks. (11 Viewers)

[Lionsaint]

I see this debated often so I decided to do a bit of research.

In the last 10 Super Bowls out of a possible 20 starting QBs 11 were top 10 draft picks. Mahomes 5 times, stafford, burrow, Goff, Ryan, newton, and manning at 1 each. 9 were drafted outside of the top 10, in fact they weren’t drafted in the first round at all. Hurts twice, Brady 4 times, Purdy, Foles, and Garoppolo 1 each.

Last 10 QBs to win MVP.
5 drafted top 10 and 5 drafted outside top 10.
Newton, Ryan, Allen 1 each and Mahomes twice.
Brady once. Lamar and Rodger’s twice each.

Super Bowl appearances and mvps it’s basically 50/50.

Then I looked at every QB drafted top 10 the past 10 years.

2024: Williams, Daniels, Maye, penix, and McCarthy
2023: Stroud, young, Richardson
2022: none.
2021: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance
2020: Burrow, Tua, Herbert
2019: Murray, Jones
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen
2017: Trubisky, Mahomes
2016: Goff, Wentz
2015: Winston, Mariota

26 total QBs drafted in the top 10. Two of them have made the Super Bowl. In the same time span 2 QBs drafted outside the top 10 have also made the SuperBowl.

It doesn’t appear that drafting inside the top 10 provides a better chance of hitting on QB that will take us to the SuperBowl. Admittedly the QBs drafted top 10 this past year could move the data in that direction in the coming years but at this point it hasn’t been proven yet.

 

[StudioSaint]

I see this debated often so I decided to do a bit of research.

In the last 10 Super Bowls out of a possible 20 starting QBs 11 were top 10 draft picks. Mahomes 5 times, stafford, burrow, Goff, Ryan, newton, and manning at 1 each. 9 were drafted outside of the top 10, in fact they weren’t drafted in the first round at all. Hurts twice, Brady 4 times, Purdy, Foles, and Garoppolo 1 each.

Last 10 QBs to win MVP.
5 drafted top 10 and 5 drafted outside top 10.
Newton, Ryan, Allen 1 each and Mahomes twice.
Brady once. Lamar and Rodger’s twice each.

Super Bowl appearances and mvps it’s basically 50/50.

Then I looked at every QB drafted top 10 the past 10 years.

2024: Williams, Daniels, Maye, penix, and McCarthy
2023: Stroud, young, Richardson
2022: none.
2021: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance
2020: Burrow, Tua, Herbert
2019: Murray, Jones
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen
2017: Trubisky, Mahomes
2016: Goff, Wentz
2015: Winston, Mariota

26 total QBs drafted in the top 10. Two of them have made the Super Bowl. In the same time span 2 QBs drafted outside the top 10 have also made the SuperBowl.

It doesn’t appear that drafting inside the top 10 provides a better chance of hitting on QB that will take us to the SuperBowl. Admittedly the QBs drafted top 10 this past year could move the data in that direction in the coming years but at this point it hasn’t been proven yet.

Really appreciate the breakdown. If you draft well, you draft well no matter were you pick. If you don't draft well, then you don't draft well no matter were you pick.

And no team has anywhere near a 100% success rate with the draft, so drafting well doesn't mean hitting on every or almost all of your picks.

 

[Taker597]

A player isn't destined for a pick. I get that people really buy into to this draft boards and thinking that a player have a tangible value with a certain range.

It's not set in stone. It never is.

They are scouted and drafted by a football organization.

What a higher pick guarantee you the ability to choose who you want to draft.

Everything beyond that point is dependent on the team.

Chicago had the choice of Patterson and Jayden Daniels. Washington didn't have that choice and the fate that be it. It could of gone differently and the projection of both franchises go in completely different directions. It was not in Washington's control who they draft. They had Jayden as their #1 QB. If they had the #1 pick. They would of drafted Daniels.

You are hoping on external factors to get your QB to fall to you. How did that work for us on Patrick Mahomes?

Wanting a more valuable draft position should never be "critique". It's objectively better to have more options with a better quality pick and have faith in your scouting department to hit.