Due to an oversaturation of the QB market. Haskin and Murray are on course for an unprecendented fall. (1 Viewer)

[Taker597]

Hearing a lot of rumbling that Haskin and Murray are both gonna fall out of the top 10 and further. QB market is over-saturated after last year draft and stubborn organization like Steelers & Giants want to wait till after Ben/Eli retires to draft their heirs. The only 2 teams on paper in a dire need for a young QB is Saints and Patriots.

The Most Likely Teams to Draft a QB in the First Round Before Free Agency:
Giants
Steelers
Patriots
Dolphins
Jags
Denver
Redskins

FA Moves
Jags acquire Nick Foles
Redskins acquire Case Kenuum and still has Alex Smith
Denver acquire Flacco

Other Developments
Giants/Steelers being 100% committed to building around their old QBs
Giants showing no interest in QB Class
Dolphins trying to acquire picks in the 2020 draft and get in the hunt for Tua
Cardinals sticking with Rosen per Owner


Smokescreen Detector on Meduim Alert
Cardinals
Dolphins
Giants
Bucs ( New Head Coach may go in different direction, but has remained quiet)

Top 10 looking like this...

Cardinals - Pass. Keeping Rosen
49ers - Pass. Jimmy G
Jets - Pass. Darnold
Raiders - Pass. Carr
Bucs - Maybe? Giving Winston one last shot?
Giants - Pass lol. They are sticking with Eli
Jags - Pass. They just got Foles
Lions - Pass. Stafford


The tens aren't much better.

Bills - Pass. Allen
Broncos - Maybe? Flacco lol
Bengals - Pass-ish. Dalton lol
Packers - Pass. Rodgers
Dolphin - Pass. 2020 prospect
Falcon - Pass. Ryan
Skins - Make sense, but they have too much money tied at QB to draft one.
Panthers - Pass. Newton
Giants (From Browns) - Pass again... morons.
Viking - Pass. Cousins
Titan - Maybe? Titans wanting to move on from Marcus?

You can look at the other teams... All have stable QBs situation for better and worse.

28-29 other teams about to let 1 or 2 potential franchise QB prospect fall to the Patriots at 32nd pick. Honestly, they don't even have to trade up. The thought of the Patriot dynasty having long term security makes me sick.

Murray and Haskin are underrated, but do have their flaws one on the technique side and other being more physical shortcoming. yet, I grade them higher than Mayfield's peer in the 2018 draft( Yeah... I really don't like Rosen). If they are able to slide to winning and competent programs... They could be the next big names. I think teams are buying too much into the hype of the 2020 class with GlassMan Tua and Choker Fromm leading the pack.

Bridgewater signed a 1 year deal with intentions of his agent to haggle the Saints for starter money in 2020 when Brees is expected to retire. If an unprecedented fall happens. It maybe in the Saint's best interest to create a contingency IF A TOP PROSPECT FALL OUT OF THE 1ST ROUND in case Bridgewater doesn't pan out. With teams gearing up to tank for 2020 QBs and passing on 2019 prospects. I would say this creates an odd window of opportunity that ALL should keep an eye on at the moment. 2 QB prospects is better than just 1 for Life after Brees.

I'M NOT ADVOCATING ANY SUCH TRADE, BUT SHARING THE MOST LIKEST OUTCOME. A QB WON'T BE DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10 IS RISING IN PROBABILITY AS WELL THEM FALLING FURTHER.

Whether this is a smokescreen or not from Giants, Dolphins, and Cardinals. The consistent analysis is that the NFL is currently over-saturated with QB commitments(Regardless Good or Bad) and massive fall in drafting status is due.

 

[gumbotron]

Thats some deep divin ?

 

[Taker597]

Thats some deep divin ?

FA was unexpectedly screwy with the QB market and totally tanked a lot of probability maps for the top 10. A QB went from a 99% lock before FA in the Top 10 and took nose diving into the 30 percentile. It steadly dropping aswell... Mainly because of the Giants and Jags. Cardinals is putting on a good show if they did draft a QB. I'm pretty much 99% that they are gonna pass on Murray.

 

[onanygivensunday]

I don't see it. Murray, Haskins and Lock are going in the 1st round.

Anybody willing to take that bet?

 

[Saintman2884]

Why do I feel like some of the same criticisms against Murray's size and physical limitations is same similar crap I heard 30 years ago or more against Doug Flutie after he had won the Heisman Trophy in 1984 and despite being a winning QB in relief for the Bears and Patriots, he was never really given a fair chance at the starting QB spot in New England in the late 80's. He made a aging, declining Pats teams in the late 80's look halfway decent at times and if he'd had the full support of Raymond Berry, the Pats-then ownership and FO, he might've achieved more success in the NFL then what he did a decade later with the Bills in late 90's. And even then, some elements of their organization weren't sold on him and pressured Wade Phillips to start an unproven backup QB in Doug Johnson in a playoff game that even ex-Bills legends and HC Wade Phillips have said since the outcome would've been different if Flutie had started. I don't want Kyler have to endure the same sort of silly, stupid generalizations Flutie dealt with over the course of his career and damaged it.

I can imagine, with a lot of hard work, focus, determination and a good QB coach and OC, Murray developing into a Pro-Bowl caliber QB. He reminds me a little of a younger Russell Wilson, he shares some same basic fundamentals like agility, maneuverability, and a strong arm. I've also seen a penchant for him making things happen out of broken plays in-games. He could develop into another Mahomes or just another bust, but at least give him a halfway decent shot.

 

[Nonreg]

I think your logic is off; if any of the teams you mentioned finishes below .500 I could see them taking a new HC. You can just consistently lose and expect the same staff / players to remain intact.

Broncos - aging QB
Bengals - how long has he had to get them in playoffs?
Dolphins - no qb
Bills - up in the air about Allen
Giants - Eli is done
Vikings - cousins is overrated;

 

[livefromDC]

Why do I feel like some of the same criticisms against Murray's size and physical limitations is same similar crap I heard 30 years ago or more against Doug Flutie after he had won the Heisman Trophy in 1984 and despite being a winning QB in relief for the Bears and Patriots, he was never really given a fair chance at the starting QB spot in New England in the late 80's. He made a aging, declining Pats teams in the late 80's look halfway decent at times and if he'd had the full support of Raymond Berry, the Pats-then ownership and FO, he might've achieved more success in the NFL then what he did a decade later with the Bills in late 90's. And even then, some elements of their organization weren't sold on him and pressured Wade Phillips to start an unproven backup QB in Doug Johnson in a playoff game that even ex-Bills legends and HC Wade Phillips have said since the outcome would've been different if Flutie had started. I don't want Kyler have to endure the same sort of silly, stupid generalizations Flutie dealt with over the course of his career and damaged it.

I can imagine, with a lot of hard work, focus, determination and a good QB coach and OC, Murray developing into a Pro-Bowl caliber QB. He reminds me a little of a younger Russell Wilson, he shares some same basic fundamentals like agility, maneuverability, and a strong arm. I've also seen a penchant for him making things happen out of broken plays in-games. He could develop into another Mahomes or just another bust, but at least give him a halfway decent shot.

I remember that game. Rarely do I ever root against an AFC team in the early rounds of the playoffs, but I sure did hope Buffalo would lose for that bout of idiocy. It made zero sense and I wanted them to pay for it. Felt bad Flutie.

 

[TenTwo]

I do not believe anything anyone says in NY. The Giants WILL draft a QB no matter what their turd GM says.

 

[dutar76]

This is one of the most "stable" years for NFL QBs. Everybody but the Skins and Dolphins have their guy for 2019. Most have their guy going forward after 2019.

Bad year for a top young QB prospects. Of course, teams will take QBs in the first round. Likely high. This isn't the first time QBs were projected to fall. But the fact remains. Teams overpay and over-draft QBs every year.

 

[Saint Greg]

No way the Broncos, Bengals, and Dolphins all pass on QBs if they fall. And I just saw something yesterday saying the Redskins like Haskins. They aren’t going to pass on him because of money tied up in Alex Smith and case keenum.

 

[donato]

I can’t see the Giants passing either.

 

[td2w]

It's true that there are only 32 teams, and that a top-tier QB can play at a very high level for 15+ years, odds say at some point you would have less demand for QBs.

With that being said, you can see that history says there almost at least one QB in the first, and in the last 5 drafts the average is much higher -

2018:

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, Browns
2. Sam Darnold, USC, Jets
3. Josh Allen, Wyoming, Bills
4. Josh Rosen, UCLA, Cardinals
5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville, Ravens

=========

2017:

1. Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina, Bears
2. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech, Chiefs
3. Deshaun Watson, Clemson, Texans

=========

2016:

1. Jared Goff, California, Rams
2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles
3. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos

=========

2015:

1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans

=========

2014:

1. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars
2. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns
3. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings

=========

2013:

16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills

=========

2012:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins
3. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins
4. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns

=========

2011:

1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers
2. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans
3. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars
4. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

=========

2010:

1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams
2. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos

=========

2009:

1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions
2. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets
3. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers

=========

2008:

1. Matt Ryan, Boston College, Falcons
2. Joe Flacco, Delaware, Ravens

=========

2007:

1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders
2. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame, Browns

=========

2006:

1. Vince Young, Texas, Titans
2. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals
3. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos

=========

2005:

1. Alex Smith, Utah, 49ers
2. Aaron Rodgers, Cal, Packers
3. Jason Campbell, Auburn, Redskins

=========

2004:

1. Eli Manning, Mississippi, Chargers
2. Philip Rivers, North Carolina State, Giants
3. Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (Ohio), Steelers
4. J.P. Losman, Tulane, Bills

=========

2003:

1. Carson Palmer, USC, Bengals
2. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars
3. Kyle Boller, Cal, Ravens
4. Rex Grossman, Florida, Bears

=========

2002:

1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans
2. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions
3. Patrick Ramsey, Tulane, Redskins

=========

2001:

1. Michael Vick, Virginia Tech, Falcons

=========

2000:

18. Chad Pennington, Marshall, Jets

 

[Dago]

The Bucs pull the trigger on Haskins for sure if he drops that far

 

[mtq79]

It's true that there are only 32 teams, and that a top-tier QB can play at a very high level for 15+ years, odds say at some point you would have less demand for QBs.

With that being said, you can see that history says there almost at least one QB in the first, and in the last 5 drafts the average is much higher -

2018:

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, Browns
2. Sam Darnold, USC, Jets
3. Josh Allen, Wyoming, Bills
4. Josh Rosen, UCLA, Cardinals
5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville, Ravens

=========

2017:

1. Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina, Bears
2. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech, Chiefs
3. Deshaun Watson, Clemson, Texans

=========

2016:

1. Jared Goff, California, Rams
2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles
3. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos

=========

2015:

1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans

=========

2014:

1. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars
2. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns
3. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings

=========

2013:

16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills

=========

2012:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins
3. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins
4. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns

=========

2011:

1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers
2. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans
3. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars
4. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

=========

2010:

1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams
2. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos

=========

2009:

1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions
2. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets
3. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers

=========

2008:

1. Matt Ryan, Boston College, Falcons
2. Joe Flacco, Delaware, Ravens

=========

2007:

1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders
2. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame, Browns

=========

2006:

1. Vince Young, Texas, Titans
2. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals
3. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos

=========

2005:

1. Alex Smith, Utah, 49ers
2. Aaron Rodgers, Cal, Packers
3. Jason Campbell, Auburn, Redskins

=========

2004:

1. Eli Manning, Mississippi, Chargers
2. Philip Rivers, North Carolina State, Giants
3. Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (Ohio), Steelers
4. J.P. Losman, Tulane, Bills

=========

2003:

1. Carson Palmer, USC, Bengals
2. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars
3. Kyle Boller, Cal, Ravens
4. Rex Grossman, Florida, Bears

=========

2002:

1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans
2. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions
3. Patrick Ramsey, Tulane, Redskins

=========

2001:

1. Michael Vick, Virginia Tech, Falcons

=========

2000:

18. Chad Pennington, Marshall, Jets

Whereas your research proves your point, I think it also points to the dangers of over drafting a QB as opposed to other positions. Yikes

 

[td2w]

Whereas your research proves your point, I think it also points to the dangers of over drafting a QB as opposed to other positions. Yikes

Oh no doubt! Browns, Jets and Bills combines for 10 different QBs in the above drafts.
Very risky, but at the same time, almost unheard of a first round without a QB selected.