ESPN Report. Disturbing Stats regarding penalties and Saints (1 Viewer)

Another team i think that was screwed over by outside forces was 3-4 yrs ago with Jacksonville. Beating the Patriots and who was it that said the coach had to let the foot off the gas? Not exactly sure how that went. That is another odd game similar to our no call game, where you think to yourself “no way they going to let the Saints play in the sb”, same can be said for Jacksonville at that moment to.

I got post dating as far back as before the nfccg calling that to, where we going to get screwed over by something.
 
False analogy.

This isn't a theoretically "objective" test that can be replicated over and over again largely unaffected by outside forces that have a variable effect on any individual test.

The whole point here is that outside forces ARE creating an anomalous result -- the feeling among more than a few referees that Sean Payton needs to be reminded who is in charge.
Just because there is a human element, does not in any way mean that it's a false analogy. You get in multiple car wrecks in a year, Taco Bell always seems to get your order wrong. Neither necessitates that there is a cabal trying to orchestrate bad things happening to you. I'm in no way trying to discount your theory, but what I said is still correct.
 
Just because there is a human element, does not in any way mean that it's a false analogy. You get in multiple car wrecks in a year, Taco Bell always seems to get your order wrong. Neither necessitates that there is a cabal trying to orchestrate bad things happening to you. I'm in no way trying to discount your theory, but what I said is still correct.
If Taco Bell gets your order (and only your order) wrong year after year, location after location, you're quite justified in believing it's intentional. Whether the franchise managers gather in a back room or not.
 
This statistic is at best alarming. The article would have been stronger had ESPN consulted with a statistician to determine the odds of the Saints ranking so low for four consecutive years. My thoughts:

1. I generally do not believe in conspiracies, and I do not believe that a conspiracy--a concerted agreement among a high percentage of officials--is the reason for this statistical anomaly. Think of how many people would have to know and agree to such an unethical and illegal course of action. And think of how much the league--the collective value of the 32 franchises may be $120 billion--would be destroyed were such an agreement to be discussed, much less proven. And think of how many officials and others would have to be involved? No, I do not believe there is a conspiracy.

2. For those who say the league simply hates the Saints, be reminded that the league put Sean Payton on its most prestigious committee, the competition committee. Sean chose to leave. I am sure he had substantial reasons for that decision, but for a coach who feels that his team is not being fairly treated, it is far better for that coach to have a seat at that table where major decisions are made than not to have a seat.

3. My belief is that the numbers are statistically so bizarre--would the odds be 1 out of 1,000?--that a number of NFL officials truly dislike the Saints organization and that for some their bias results in the Saints' opponents, and not the Saints, getting the close calls. The reasons for the hostility could be embarrassment over the no-call in the Rams game and Payton's actions on the competition committee. We do know that as a whole the officials like their current structure of being allowed to work full-time and work part-time as an NFL official; I would think a good number feel financially threatened by proposals to have officials work full-time.
I think pretty much any statistician would say that the possibility of that happening is yeah……I’m still P'Oed off, but would pay a good amount $ to read Coach Payton’s book when he retires.

 
Always trying to help -- it's why I'm here!

The no-call had nothing to do with us -- whoever was playing the Rams that day was a dead team walking unless you blew them out so badly there was nothing the refs could do.

And the bullying obviously pre-dates Gayle.
Then the 2 league darlings met in the Super Bowl, which is EXACTLY how the NFL drew it up in the sand before the season ever began.
 
This may be the most important and alarming story I have read about the Saints in years. I applaud Mike Triplett for running it, but ESPN or nola.com needs to go one step further and hire at least two statisticians for a professional opinion on the odds of this happening.

In an earlier post, I threw out an estimate of the odds being 1 out of 1,000. If the Mike Silver comment above is correct that the the likelihood is 0.007725 percent, then rounding up to 0.008 percent, the odds would be 1 out of 12,500. Please check my numbers because my courses in math and my one college statistics class were more decades ago than I want to admit. If we are looking at penalties called against a team, one can argue that the numbers may show a team that is inordinately aggressive or badly coached. But that argument cannot be made with the number of penalties called against the teams a particular team plays.

And I am curious as to how the Saints during that four-year period fared with regard to the number of penalties called against it and the disparity between the number of penalties called against the Saints and their opponents.

My only conclusion is that a certain percentage of NFL officials do not care for the Saints organization and subconsciously in close plays are inclined not to call penalties against Saints' opponents. I do not believe there is a conspiracy, which requires an agreement. But if a substantial percentage of NFL officials simply do not like the Saints organization--whether because of embarrassment over the no-call in the Rams game or because of Payton's outspoken advocacy of measures NFL officials did not like when Payton was on the competition committee--then we could find 10 percent or so of officials subconsciously giving Saints' opponents the benefit of the doubt in close plays.

This ends when it becomes an open secret in Las Vegas and among the betting public that the officials seem biased against the Saints and start factoring that bias in setting betting lines and making bets.
 
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At this time, this story will not gain traction nationally. It is the divisional round of the playoffs, all four games are attractive, and the Saints are not playing. If the Saints were playing, it would be a different matter.

And God knows how much the NFL would fine and penalize Payton or the Saints organization if Payton publicly accused NFL officials of implicit bias when officiating Saint games, citing the data in the Triplett story.
 
Funny that Vegas may be the catalyst to correct cheating in the NFL. Because that's what the numbers indicate, cheating. 1 in 12,500 chance to rank that low in opponents penalized over that many seasons? Shout it from the rooftops. NFL cheats.
 
Were I to truly publish the numbers, I would be double- and triple-checking them because I did this quickly. But since 2006, as far as the number of penalties called AGAINST the Saints and the number of yards the SAINTS were penalized since 2006, the rankings are below. Note that the first number is the ranking for the number of penalties called against the Saints, the second number is the ranking for the number of yards the Saints were penalized, and the letter t means the Saints were tied with one or more other teams for that ranking. These are the rankings:

2006--6, 5
2007--4, 4
2008--14t, 22
2009--13, 17
2010--10t, 22
2011--13t, 14
2012--21t, 22
2013--11t, 16
2014--2, 3
2015--28, 29
2016--16t, 23
2017--16, 23t
2018--5t, 14
2019--27, 27
2020--23t, 31
2021--12t, 10
 
I am not sure about that. if you run the scenario once, sure. But lets say run it every october for 4 years. Everyone uses the same coin they used the first year. And you lose EVERY single year, 4 times in a row. You might start to wonder if your coin is different from the others.
The odds are better that the Pelicans would win the lottery (weighted with 1 in 14 teams annually) 4 years running vs. what has happened to the Saints. Yes, it needs to be explained with appropriate odds and background on Park Ave relationship with Payton being the cause for the vendetta and secondly how this didn’t happen when Tom was alive so are they picking on the female owner??
 
For the love of God lol you don't have to believe in conspiracy theories or write paragraphs on conspiracies, the facts are right there. The fact is the referees are biased against the Saints, the reason for it is irrelevant and it doesn't matter if you have a tin foil hat on or not. The entire problem here is that it is being done in the first place, and it's being done year after year with no hope of it being rectified for Saints fans
 
Always trying to help -- it's why I'm here!

The no-call had nothing to do with us -- whoever was playing the Rams that day was a dead team walking unless you blew them out so badly there was nothing the refs could do.

And the bullying obviously pre-dates Gayle.
I have a hard time with how there are still folks who don't understand this.

The Rams were going to the Superbowl, unless, as you stated, it was a complete blow out.

The NFL threw all it's might to move a franchise to LA, build a $5billion stadium and have the LA team "miraculously " find itself competing for a championship a mere year after the move. The story writes itself.
 
Using Ockham’s razor, the simplest explanation is that officials, whether consciously or not, started punishing the Saints after they got the DPI video review installed by not calling penalties against their opponents. This way, they didn’t have to call fake penalties against the Saints or do anything glaringly corrupt, just subtly give their opponents an edge by looking the other way when they held our players, mugged our receivers, set illegal picks, etc.
 

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