Even Vegas sometimes just checks the stat line :) (1 Viewer)

Rice Owl

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There is a link on the ESPN front page to Chad Millman's blog talking about shifting spreads in upcoming college games and what it means for the two teams. He apparently talks with a Vegas insider and then does his write up. This is the first time I've ever seen the blog and I am not a gambler so some of it makes no sense to me. Anyway here is the link: http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/insider/news/story?id=4378665

And this is why its on the SSF:
Erin Rynning, a wise guy I know in Vegas, usually loves to bet on the NFL's Week 2 games. "It's my favorite week because you often have so much overreaction to Week 1," he says. "But this year, it just feels like an extension of last season. Not a lot of overreaction to take advantage of."Doesn't mean that lines aren't moving. And doesn't mean Erin is lacking opinions. He's one of those wise guys who dreamed of betting tickets when he was a kid growing up near Madison, Wis. His dad bet with a bookie and let Erin make some plays when he was in the sixth grade. He won. Often. So then his dad's friends started asking for some advice. "When I was about 13, I knew I was going to move to Vegas," he says. "Most kids think they are going to be athletes. But I made up dice games. My two best friends were all-state jocks, so I knew I wasn't good enough to play. But I still wanted to be involved in sports."
Seven years ago, he moved out to Vegas with a small bankroll. He blew through it, then built it back by getting disciplined and learning about value when shopping for lines. Now he's one of the town's savviest young players. Even last year's Hilton Super Contest winner, Fezzik, respects him.
And so what does Erin have to say that's so interesting?


Matchup: Saints at Eagles
Line moves: Eagles minus-3 to Eagles minus-1
What that means: A lot of books wouldn't post this game because of McNabb's injury. Those that did started with the Eagles minus-3 and moved very quickly to Eagles minus-1 when a lot of sharp money started coming in on the Saints.
Erin's Idea: "This movement is injury-related, because of McNabb, but also because of how well the Saints looked in Week 1. This is a game I would definitely play if I could get it at pick 'em. The Saints are a typical team that I love to bet against. Great offense, no defense, on the road. With all those playmakers, the public loves them and puts these guys on their fantasy teams and then puts a few bucks down to back that up, because they are so sure. Then the number falls. This is when value comes into play, and for wise guys, this line is approaching a good value, because I think the Eagles are a better team."
"The Saints are a typical team that I love to bet against. Great offense, no defense, on the road."


Saints 48 Eagles 22.



:hihi:
 

davidstvz

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That is hilarious.

Because before that game my friends and I were thinking the opposite. We're crazy not to bet on this game... course I didn't bet on it. Man I shoulda put some money down.
 

buzd

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Historically, the Saints have been terrible against the spread. Those times are past.
 

Taceo

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My gambling buddies (who are probably just regurgitating stuff from The Sports Guy, but whatever) have told me that home field advantage, in Vegas' view, has all but disappeared. Of course, the exception is usually a Southern team playing a Northern team in the cold.
 

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