Federal Unemployment set to expire July 31? (5 Viewers)

Joined
Jan 20, 2020
Messages
961
Reaction score
1,243
Location
Formally Texas
Offline
Folks. The government needs to extend this till November at least. I’m afraid America will go to a very dark place if we do not. The Economists all agree it needs to be extended. I’m not going to get political on this board but if we don’t help those that are still in need it is going to get really bad. High crime, riots, more protests, even a major stock market crash could happen. Pray Congress does the right thing and extends unemployment.
 

James Spader

Veteran Starter
Joined
Jan 25, 2010
Messages
2,266
Reaction score
2,149
Offline
Folks. The government needs to extend this till November at least. I’m afraid America will go to a very dark place if we do not. The Economists all agree it needs to be extended. I’m not going to get political on this board but if we don’t help those that are still in need it is going to get really bad. High crime, riots, more protests, even a major stock market crash could happen. Pray Congress does the right thing and extends unemployment.
The best thing is to get people back to work though I am with you that people need help but till when? Will we be saying the same thing come end of year? Just things to think off, the cynic in me says this all does not end well.
 

DaveXA

I love the Lord!
Staff member
Super Moderator
Joined
Sep 6, 2001
Messages
31,335
Reaction score
19,107
Age
49
Location
Vienna, VA via Lafayette
Offline
Folks. The government needs to extend this till November at least. I’m afraid America will go to a very dark place if we do not. The Economists all agree it needs to be extended. I’m not going to get political on this board but if we don’t help those that are still in need it is going to get really bad. High crime, riots, more protests, even a major stock market crash could happen. Pray Congress does the right thing and extends unemployment.
Well, to give a hint of things to come, iirc, over 33% of home mortgages are behind in payments. I fully expect that to go up substantially in the next 60-90 days.
 
OP
Joined
Jan 20, 2020
Messages
961
Reaction score
1,243
Location
Formally Texas
Offline
The best thing is to get people back to work though I am with you that people need help but till when? Will we be saying the same thing come end of year? Just things to think off, the cynic in me says this all does not end well.
One problem. Businesses are folding. See K-Paul’s.

 

buzd

party lamp
Staff member
Tech-Admin
Joined
Jan 11, 2002
Messages
32,240
Reaction score
25,614
Age
49
Location
Duncan Plaza
Online
Well, to give a hint of things to come, iirc, over 33% of home mortgages are behind in payments. I fully expect that to go up substantially in the next 60-90 days.
Well, the CARES act allowed for forebearance - you can get behind without penalty, and some lenders will restructure your missed payments to the back end of the loan. So that percentage is a little deceptive.
 

DaveXA

I love the Lord!
Staff member
Super Moderator
Joined
Sep 6, 2001
Messages
31,335
Reaction score
19,107
Age
49
Location
Vienna, VA via Lafayette
Offline
The best thing is to get people back to work though I am with you that people need help but till when? Will we be saying the same thing come end of year? Just things to think off, the cynic in me says this all does not end well.
The problem is that Covid-19 hasn't slowed down enough to open the economy back up to really healthy levels. Until that happens, either the government fills the gap, or an awful lot of people are going to be in impossible situations, and the social contract becomes an afterthought.

Think it's bad now...if we do nothing, it's gonna be a whole hell of a lot worse. We gotta bite the bullet and fill the gap until the covid numbers get to a point where we can actually contact trace, treat, and/or vaccinate a large enough part of the population to where we're better positioned to open up the economy without causing spikes in cases and deaths. We're not close to that yet.
 

DaveXA

I love the Lord!
Staff member
Super Moderator
Joined
Sep 6, 2001
Messages
31,335
Reaction score
19,107
Age
49
Location
Vienna, VA via Lafayette
Offline
Well, the CARES act allowed for forebearance - you can get behind without penalty, and some lenders will restructure your missed payments to the back end of the loan. So that percentage is a little deceptive.
Indeed it is, but iirc, that sunsets July 31st, and while there aren't penalties, the loans are still accruing interest and you'll still be on the hook for the amount you're behind in payments. So, it's still a significant problem, especially when the provision goes away.

Congress would need to extend that to avoid mass foreclosures in the coming months.
 

bclemms

More than 15K posts served!
Joined
Jul 16, 2005
Messages
32,922
Reaction score
42,072
Age
12
Location
Jackson, ms
Online
It will get extended but before everyone says "We need to" they may want to consider the adverse long term impacts as well. Our current debt to GDP ratio is at levels we've only seen one time before and that was during WWII. It took almost 40 years of debt repayment to get to the early to 0 from that point and those 40 years investment markets were rather flat while tax rates were high. This came at a time of increasing wages, a booming young generation and low inflation.

Current guidance with another round of stimulus, with extending unemployment benefits, with infrastructure stimulus, vaccine purchases and existing budget expendatures it looks as though we will have similar debt to GDP ratios to Greece when they defaulted during the financial crisis.

At some point America has a big dose of medicine to take and kicking the can down the road could cause far more harm than good.

For example, if we extend unemployment benefits and do another round of stimulus. Then if a vaccine is successful and we are able to roll out eliminating covid by spring of 2021 then the worst case will be avoided. However, the economy will be completely propped up by debt, massive amounts of M2 expansion, 0 interest rates and a FED balance sheet that is astronomical. The FED will have to decrease money supply or a very real threat of runaway inflation will occur. The last few times the FED has had to reel back cheap monetary policy the markets reacted swift and negatively. So even if we make it through without a big fall out, the government is going to have try and figure out how to remove the stilts from under the economy while not busting a massive bubble and we will have to do this with a government that loves to spend.

By the 2024 US budget, every taxpayer in the country will be on the hook for $370,000 in government debt and this is assuming we don't have another crisis. It also assumes we don't head down a road which includes a cold war with China which we are barreling towards. China sees our debt and could very well push towards a cold war and we would play the part of Russia this time around since we have such a massive debt load.

Sounds really complicated because it is. There is a reason money doesn't grow on trees. If it did, the dollar would be worth as much as leaves. America's solution the last 20 years has been all gain and no pain. The world doesn't work that way.
 

Mr. Blue Sky

Still P***ed at Yoko
VIP Contributor
Joined
Jun 6, 2006
Messages
23,279
Reaction score
11,692
Location
Between the Moon and New York City
Online
Here’s my prediction on how it will go down, feel free to save this post for posterity:

Congress goes on vacation in a few days From now.. i highly doubt anything will get done in re to an extension before then.. i think they will all be forced to pass somehting as soon as they come back in mid-August (i think?).. Fortuntely this is an election year, otherwise I don’t think the President and GOP would extend Unemployment at all, and would just pass more trillions for the top 1% to collect, and let the rest of the economy crumble.. sorry if that’s veering into the political... But i think something will get passed in August, NOT the $600 additional federal dollars per week (over and above each state’s regular weekly UI amount as it currently is).. I’ve already heard /read rumblings that McConnell wants to extend it, but at only $200/wk federal.. i think the Democrats will counter with $500, and i think the end result will be an extension through Jan 31st, 2021 at $400 additional per week (maayyybbbee $450), plus each state’s normal amount (La unemployent is only like $250 a week normally)... BUT, and this is big- i think they will all say “OK, we’ll reduce unemployment- but everyone gets another, BIGGER stimulus check “.. i think it’ll be almost double the prior stimulus , which was $1200 per person.. i think it’ll be $2000 per person, which still isn’t enough- but will be good because everyone will get it (in theory) , unlike unemployment which lots of people (gig workers, etc) have had a really hard time getting.

So there it is, i really hope I’m right, and that should get us through til 2021.. but how the election plays out between now and then will also play a big part in if/how we Come back out of this pandemic.
 

DaveXA

I love the Lord!
Staff member
Super Moderator
Joined
Sep 6, 2001
Messages
31,335
Reaction score
19,107
Age
49
Location
Vienna, VA via Lafayette
Offline
Indeed it is, but iirc, that sunsets July 31st, and while there aren't penalties, the loans are still accruing interest and you'll still be on the hook for the amount you're behind in payments. So, it's still a significant problem, especially when the provision goes away.

Congress would need to extend that to avoid mass foreclosures in the coming months.
I did miss that bit about essentially restructuring the loan to push the missed payments back into the loan, but, I'm highly skeptical that banks are actually doing this. They don't like jumping through hoops without making customers paying for it, so, I guess time will tell on that part.
 

guidomerkinsrules

W H A T E V I R
VIP Contributor
Joined
Apr 30, 2007
Messages
58,552
Reaction score
93,677
Location
by the cemeteries
Online
Folks. The government needs to extend this till November at least. I’m afraid America will go to a very dark place if we do not. The Economists all agree it needs to be extended. I’m not going to get political on this board but if we don’t help those that are still in need it is going to get really bad. High crime, riots, more protests, even a major stock market crash could happen. Pray Congress does the right thing and extends unemployment.
Heck with them folks- won’t anybody think about the poor cruise ships?
 

DaveXA

I love the Lord!
Staff member
Super Moderator
Joined
Sep 6, 2001
Messages
31,335
Reaction score
19,107
Age
49
Location
Vienna, VA via Lafayette
Offline
Heck with them folks- won’t anybody think about the poor cruise ships?
Those ships can sink to the bottom of the ocean for all i care. They're floating petri dishes and a public health hazard imo.
 

DavidM

Admin Emeritus
VIP Contributor
Joined
Sep 1, 1999
Messages
46,036
Reaction score
20,648
Offline
The official expiration is July 31 but the effective expiration falls on this weekend.

Yes, if Congress doesn't take action, many people are facing devastating consequences.

The additional $600 in weekly jobless benefits provided by the federal government is officially set to end July 31. But states will pay it only through the week ending July 25 or July 26, a significant blow to unemployed workers counting on that money to bolster state benefits that average just $370 a week.

"The (Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation) $600 can be paid for weeks ending no later than the week ending prior to Friday, July 31, 2020,'' the U.S. Department of Labor said in a statement. "For all states except (New York), that is Saturday, July 25th. New York’s end date is Sunday, July 26th."

The confusion lies in the fine print. Unemployment benefits are paid by states on a weekly or biweekly basis with a defined end date on Saturday or Sunday. But the federal legislation known as the CARES Act, which authorized the additional compensation, says the benefit will end “on or before July 31” – a Friday.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 4)



Headlines

Top Bottom