Flooding - Eastern Kentucky (2 Viewers)

[efil4stnias]

what the heck happened here? I have seen a few tweets from @bclemms - was there any sort of NWS "alerts" or was this one of those 'out of nowhere" situations?

My goodness- 15 fatalities so far and expected to climb.

Man...as a SELA resident, you are fully aware of flood risks. But to think that in the hilly parts of Eastern Kentucky, you could see devastation like they have seen from reported 8 inch rainfall is a eye-opener.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Just saw some of Brandon’s @bclemms drone footage from Hindman KY on CNN.. Looks absolutely devastating .

 

[efil4stnias]

Just saw some of Brandon’s @bclemms drone footage from Hindman KY on CNN.. Looks absolutely devastating .

yeah he has really become the "go to" for CNN and footage.

I just was on his twitter- there is one drone video where im guessing there was a creek....with homes along creek. the entire area looks like a giant river. AFTER several feet of receding water level.

 

[efil4stnias]

 

[Zardnok]

Las Vegas also flooded. Crazy weather everywhere.

 

[bclemms]

So the Weather Prediction Center issued a moderate risk of significant flash flooding, the second highest level they have and issued it for 3 straight days. The first day there was some minor flooding but it was the primer event. It saturated soils and lifted water levels in rivers and creeks.

Day 2 was catastrophic in Kentucky, the areas that flooded received upwards of a foot of rain. Even when soils aren't saturated, the mountains have a lot of bedrock and then soil so the water doesn't absorb. In the mountains of Kentucky the only place people live are along bottoms because building on the side of a mountain isn't feasible. So when it rains all the rain funnels down into these valleys, rapidly fills the creeks and in the process cuts off the only roads in and out of the towns.

Yes, this was forecasted but it could have happened to any one of the hundreds of valleys in a 3 state area. Yes, this is happening more frequently due to climate change. It's impossible to say whether this would have happened with or without climate change but we can say this is happening more frequently. Yes, there was a lot of warning and even I think the risk of living in those areas is insane.

 

[UK SAINTS]

So the Weather Prediction Center issued a moderate risk of significant flash flooding, the second highest level they have and issued it for 3 straight days. The first day there was some minor flooding but it was the primer event. It saturated soils and lifted water levels in rivers and creeks.

Day 2 was catastrophic in Kentucky, the areas that flooded received upwards of a foot of rain. Even when soils aren't saturated, the mountains have a lot of bedrock and then soil so the water doesn't absorb. In the mountains of Kentucky the only place people live are along bottoms because building on the side of a mountain isn't feasible. So when it rains all the rain funnels down into these valleys, rapidly fills the creeks and in the process cuts off the only roads in and out of the towns.

Yes, this was forecasted but it could have happened to any one of the hundreds of valleys in a 3 state area. Yes, this is happening more frequently due to climate change. It's impossible to say whether this would have happened with or without climate change but we can say this is happening more frequently. Yes, there was a lot of warning and even I think the risk of living in those areas is insane.

Good analysis.
It seems most people from Eastern KY are "afraid" to move from "home".

 

[efil4stnias]

So the Weather Prediction Center issued a moderate risk of significant flash flooding, the second highest level they have and issued it for 3 straight days. The first day there was some minor flooding but it was the primer event. It saturated soils and lifted water levels in rivers and creeks.

Day 2 was catastrophic in Kentucky, the areas that flooded received upwards of a foot of rain. Even when soils aren't saturated, the mountains have a lot of bedrock and then soil so the water doesn't absorb. In the mountains of Kentucky the only place people live are along bottoms because building on the side of a mountain isn't feasible. So when it rains all the rain funnels down into these valleys, rapidly fills the creeks and in the process cuts off the only roads in and out of the towns.

Yes, this was forecasted but it could have happened to any one of the hundreds of valleys in a 3 state area. Yes, this is happening more frequently due to climate change. It's impossible to say whether this would have happened with or without climate change but we can say this is happening more frequently. Yes, there was a lot of warning and even I think the risk of living in those areas is insane

Yeah for folks like us living in a bowl/flat lands, its water rising in the sense of pumps/drainage not working.

For folks in valleys, say next to a creek/stream....that risk is ever-present but not common. ( on this scale ). You just dont think that a storm will produce that amount of rainfall in that short of period of time and give thought to exactly that- bedrock, steep sloped hills ( run-off happens faster water doesnt have much time to get absorbed by earth, etc ) will funnel EVERYTHNG to the natural grade of the land ( the stream/creek )

We really need to start paying attention to climate change closely

 

[Crzycjunx76]

Ok what would it take to have a nation wide cistern/reservoir and pipeline system. Like a major national infrastructure project covering the lower 48.

The volatility of weather/percipitation is clearl increasing. The loss of Holocene's realitive stability is one of the predicted outcomes of our mess.

So how do we "cover" for this erratic/extreme distribution of precipitation and both improve our reserve capacity and the abiiity to distribute it?

Water for people, agriculture, industry... both a need and a potental economic advantage through the reduction of climate change impact.

 

[efil4stnias]

Ok what would it take to have a nation wide cistern/reservoir and pipeline system. Like a major national infrastructure project covering the lower 48.

The volatility of weather/percipitation is clearl increasing. The loss of Holocene's realitive stability is one of the predicted outcomes of our mess.

So how do we "cover" for this erratic/extreme distribution of precipitation and both improve our reserve capacity and the abiiity to distribute it?

Water for people, agriculture, industry... both a need and a potental economic advantage through the reduction of climate change impact.

Massive undertaking- how to get that water from say Midwest to West coast? one giant aqueduct?

I dont know how, with ever-expanding population, we mitigate these risks without displacing massive amounts of people of lands that their families have lived on for generations.

Its a terrible situation...these folks probably had never seen anything on the scale of what happened yesterday. And will come back and think " it can never really happen again'. I deal with that thought process daily here in SELA as an insurance agent. Folks are all to quick to dismiss a "one in 500 yr flood" as an anomaly.

its no longer a question of "IF", its a question of "WHEN".

Case in point- I live in Covington LA- about 80 yards from my home is Soap and Tallow Creek that, on normal day is MAYBE 1-2 feet deep.

This photo is from 8/29/21 just as Ida was arriving - but you can see the width and get idea of depth of where the "normal level" would be.

The next photo is from the top of my pool, in May 2020, when we received like 10 inches of rain in 10 hours. That is a wheelbarrow under water in the middle left.

The creek was 200 yds wide that day. Missed flooding my home by 6 inches at its peak level.

 

[bclemms]

Ok what would it take to have a nation wide cistern/reservoir and pipeline system. Like a major national infrastructure project covering the lower 48.

The volatility of weather/percipitation is clearl increasing. The loss of Holocene's realitive stability is one of the predicted outcomes of our mess.

So how do we "cover" for this erratic/extreme distribution of precipitation and both improve our reserve capacity and the abiiity to distribute it?

Water for people, agriculture, industry... both a need and a potental economic advantage through the reduction of climate change impact.

None of that really matters until we start addressing the root problem at hand.

 

[Crzycjunx76]

None of that really matters until we start addressing the root problem at hand.

IMO they both have to be dealt with and waiting on one to start the other is the wrong move.

We are past the point where dealing with the impacts of climate change is something we can avoid, even if we go full 180 today.

For a "water security" program you could probably count on the SW, and every agricultural center in the nation to jump at the idea.

Massive undertaking- how to get that water from say Midwest to West coast? one giant aqueduct?

A massive undertaking for sure but a cistern/pipeline system would not need to pipe from one side of the country to the other. Rather it could shift it and balance the water across the network through pipelines. A way to deal with silt, pollutants, and debris would need to be devised. Ideally with silt somehow rebuilding costal wetlands and fertilizing floodplains.

 

[bclemms]

IMO they both have to be dealt with and waiting on one to start the other is the wrong move.

We are past the point where dealing with the impacts of climate change is something we can avoid, even if we go full 180 today.

For a "water security" program you could probably count on the SW, and every agricultural center in the nation to jump at the idea.




A massive undertaking for sure but a cistern/pipeline system would not need to pipe from one side of the country to the other. Rather it could shift it and balance the water across the network through pipelines. A way to deal with silt, pollutants, and debris would need to be devised. Ideally with silt somehow rebuilding costal wetlands and fertilizing floodplains.

Of course the states in the SW would jump at the idea but the states in the midwest and South are not going to give up water rights for one second.

What happens when the midwest and the south are in a deep drought? We aren't very far removed from traffic on the Ms River being at a crawl due to drought. The only time it would make sense for the states along the river to send water West is when the river will be hitting major flood stage.

Climate change projections are for less consistent rain but higher rainfall totals when those rains occur in the South and Midwest. That just means these areas are going to be experiencing extreme swings similar to what California has been experiencing the last 20 years.

Speaking of water, Louisiana is in one of the worst water situations in the country with the aquifer quickly being used up and an increasing risk of salt water intrusion.



But I do agree that we should be addressing it from both angles. My point was, if we can't address #1, #2 wont matter.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Interesting…




@Zack Lee



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