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I'm working an article that will be focusing more on X's and O's (something positive/informative to pull from recent games), but I do want to weigh in on the course of the season.
As a coach it's important to emphasize that games, seasons--they aren't over until they are over. You are constantly focusing on corrections, the next play, the next game, how to win, how to turn things around, even as the season slips away and everything seems to be going wrong, constantly.
But as a fan, I have to say that it is hard to see the Saints turning this around. It's been hard to see it for really a few weeks now. You want to stay optimistic, but to course-correct the season at this point would require a monumental change in fortune. Some of it--like injuries, questionable penalties or judgement calls by officials, the ball just bouncing the wrong way--is out of the team's control. Other issues... they may have once been in their control, but now they have taken on a life of their own.
I can't speak for all coaches, but I kind of refer to this as inertia. The ship is already gaining momentum in one direction and turning it around now is going to take a multitude of events going right, much of which has now cascaded beyond our control. The mistakes, the turnovers, the missed opportunities--they have happened in so many different ways, so many uncharacteristic ways (good players missing tackles, good players fumbling the ball, good players unable to pull in timely turnovers themselves or else having them negated by the worst-timed penalties imaginable).
This sounds a little abstract, but it isn't. I've touched on it before how turnovers and penalties and critical mistakes don't just create losses, but losses also create turnovers, penalties, and critical mistakes. It's a feedback loop that very much exists, and once it begins it is difficult to interrupt--often because a coach or coaches who fail to address it properly (or, in the worst case, expect it to fix itself). There is usually a Rubicon, a point of no return--maybe it's 1-3, 1-4--where that cascade really starts to pick up pace and now everyone is pressing, is moving in different directions, trying to diagnose and correct problems individually because, frankly, the coaches have been unable to properly diagnose and correct them during that critical early period.
This is also called "losing the team."
Being a coach--especially a head coach--is a monumental task. I am often faulted as being "too generous" when it comes to giving coaches the benefit of the doubt because I've been on both sides of it. But there is definitely something missing in DA's performance. And no, I don't think it's the low-hanging fruit--the perceived lack of emotion on the sidelines or anything like that. I've been around championship coaches who were fiery and emotional, and others who were complete dorks. And while I don't feel comfortable affirmatively diagnosing what exactly is going on with him in particular, I can clearly see the signs of what is plaguing this team. I can see the poor decisions that led them here (granted, a lot of these can be diagnosed in hindsight, but even at the time they felt questionable, at best).
I preach a lot of things as an HC, but one I beat like a drum is that in close games, in critical games, you will have maybe 2 or 3 opportunities to win. Yesterday the Saints consistently missed on every one of those opportunities. Some, like the Olave "drop" was a convoluted and, in my mind, TERRIBLE call by the refs (no conspiracy, just a crap call). But there were other chances to make up for it. There was the drop by Juwan Johnson. The fumbles by Kamara. The interception by Alontae Taylor--a GREAT play that could have easily swung the game--negated by a dumb mistake by Chris Harris.
So how do you win on those opportunities? You do it through preparation. Mental preparation, film, emphasizing situationals during practice. When I start scouting a team, especially one with whom we maybe don't match up extremely favorably, I start looking for those critical situations. Is there a defender who bites on the double move? Let's get those cutups. What part of the field does like to jump the slant or the stick? What formation on what down and distance gives us plus numbers in the run game? Where have they struggled in the red zone? Where on the field can we take a shot and have the highest percentage of success (a one-on-one, a pressure we can eat)? Where do they set the back on 3rd and long in their protection, and how can we get him in a 2 on 1? What route combos can we bait them into a turnover?
Now you narrow that down--pick maybe 3 of those "opportunities"--and you emphasize them, simulating them in practice. They like to throw smash against cover 2 between the 40s? Let's bait them into a pick, work on the CBs hesitating on their sink and then bailing late to try and snag the throw to the corner.
I'm actually oversimplifying here, but if there is one area where I feel like the Saints are just missing, constantly, repeatedly, it is that they are consistently failing to emphasize--or emphasize correctly--those situational opportunities that can win games. Maybe the other teams are out-scouting, out-preparing them? Maybe they are just too busy trying to correct tackling and blocking to find the time/resources in practice to get detailed. But Sean Payton was an example of a coach who always seemed to hit on the right opportunities.
Why do the Saints' most talented players a look to be in regression? To me, this is a big part of it. Why do we keep fumbling inside the ten, why are we not turning the ball over on defense, why are we dropping critical passes? Why are the Saints the absolute worst team in the league at the end of the half (and in that critical 8 minutes in the middle of the game--last 4 minutes before and first 4 minutes after halftime, when so many games are won and lost)?
A lot of it comes down to emphasis. And a lot of poor emphasis comes down to simple understanding and awareness. Unlike injuries, this is something the Saints have a lot more control over. But the coaches are not getting it done. And as much as I hope the Saints will win out the rest season, I just don't see this getting corrected anytime soon.
As a coach it's important to emphasize that games, seasons--they aren't over until they are over. You are constantly focusing on corrections, the next play, the next game, how to win, how to turn things around, even as the season slips away and everything seems to be going wrong, constantly.
But as a fan, I have to say that it is hard to see the Saints turning this around. It's been hard to see it for really a few weeks now. You want to stay optimistic, but to course-correct the season at this point would require a monumental change in fortune. Some of it--like injuries, questionable penalties or judgement calls by officials, the ball just bouncing the wrong way--is out of the team's control. Other issues... they may have once been in their control, but now they have taken on a life of their own.
I can't speak for all coaches, but I kind of refer to this as inertia. The ship is already gaining momentum in one direction and turning it around now is going to take a multitude of events going right, much of which has now cascaded beyond our control. The mistakes, the turnovers, the missed opportunities--they have happened in so many different ways, so many uncharacteristic ways (good players missing tackles, good players fumbling the ball, good players unable to pull in timely turnovers themselves or else having them negated by the worst-timed penalties imaginable).
This sounds a little abstract, but it isn't. I've touched on it before how turnovers and penalties and critical mistakes don't just create losses, but losses also create turnovers, penalties, and critical mistakes. It's a feedback loop that very much exists, and once it begins it is difficult to interrupt--often because a coach or coaches who fail to address it properly (or, in the worst case, expect it to fix itself). There is usually a Rubicon, a point of no return--maybe it's 1-3, 1-4--where that cascade really starts to pick up pace and now everyone is pressing, is moving in different directions, trying to diagnose and correct problems individually because, frankly, the coaches have been unable to properly diagnose and correct them during that critical early period.
This is also called "losing the team."
Being a coach--especially a head coach--is a monumental task. I am often faulted as being "too generous" when it comes to giving coaches the benefit of the doubt because I've been on both sides of it. But there is definitely something missing in DA's performance. And no, I don't think it's the low-hanging fruit--the perceived lack of emotion on the sidelines or anything like that. I've been around championship coaches who were fiery and emotional, and others who were complete dorks. And while I don't feel comfortable affirmatively diagnosing what exactly is going on with him in particular, I can clearly see the signs of what is plaguing this team. I can see the poor decisions that led them here (granted, a lot of these can be diagnosed in hindsight, but even at the time they felt questionable, at best).
I preach a lot of things as an HC, but one I beat like a drum is that in close games, in critical games, you will have maybe 2 or 3 opportunities to win. Yesterday the Saints consistently missed on every one of those opportunities. Some, like the Olave "drop" was a convoluted and, in my mind, TERRIBLE call by the refs (no conspiracy, just a crap call). But there were other chances to make up for it. There was the drop by Juwan Johnson. The fumbles by Kamara. The interception by Alontae Taylor--a GREAT play that could have easily swung the game--negated by a dumb mistake by Chris Harris.
So how do you win on those opportunities? You do it through preparation. Mental preparation, film, emphasizing situationals during practice. When I start scouting a team, especially one with whom we maybe don't match up extremely favorably, I start looking for those critical situations. Is there a defender who bites on the double move? Let's get those cutups. What part of the field does like to jump the slant or the stick? What formation on what down and distance gives us plus numbers in the run game? Where have they struggled in the red zone? Where on the field can we take a shot and have the highest percentage of success (a one-on-one, a pressure we can eat)? Where do they set the back on 3rd and long in their protection, and how can we get him in a 2 on 1? What route combos can we bait them into a turnover?
Now you narrow that down--pick maybe 3 of those "opportunities"--and you emphasize them, simulating them in practice. They like to throw smash against cover 2 between the 40s? Let's bait them into a pick, work on the CBs hesitating on their sink and then bailing late to try and snag the throw to the corner.
I'm actually oversimplifying here, but if there is one area where I feel like the Saints are just missing, constantly, repeatedly, it is that they are consistently failing to emphasize--or emphasize correctly--those situational opportunities that can win games. Maybe the other teams are out-scouting, out-preparing them? Maybe they are just too busy trying to correct tackling and blocking to find the time/resources in practice to get detailed. But Sean Payton was an example of a coach who always seemed to hit on the right opportunities.
Why do the Saints' most talented players a look to be in regression? To me, this is a big part of it. Why do we keep fumbling inside the ten, why are we not turning the ball over on defense, why are we dropping critical passes? Why are the Saints the absolute worst team in the league at the end of the half (and in that critical 8 minutes in the middle of the game--last 4 minutes before and first 4 minutes after halftime, when so many games are won and lost)?
A lot of it comes down to emphasis. And a lot of poor emphasis comes down to simple understanding and awareness. Unlike injuries, this is something the Saints have a lot more control over. But the coaches are not getting it done. And as much as I hope the Saints will win out the rest season, I just don't see this getting corrected anytime soon.
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