Explained Football, cascading mistakes, and the inescapability of 'inertia' (1 Viewer)

[Bill]

I tolerated the Ed Orgeron hire at LSU a few years back because I believed a coach who had been around the coaching block a few times would probably learn how to eliminate a lot of the mistakes from his previous coaching experiences. But he continued making the same blunders.

I went with the same thought when it was announced that Dennis Allen would become our next head coach.

Some guys just never learn how to avoid duplicating the failures of their past.

 

[kidjock24]

Great post. This is the best part here:
"Why do the Saints' most talented players a look to be in regression? To me, this is a big part of it."

I didn't know if the faults and performance of the Raiders during his tenure were sorely due to Dennis Allen, but we cannot be blind to the fact that all the inconsistencies and mistakes have carried over to this regime. And the fact that Kamara and Ram are regressing? That falls squarely at the feet of the head coach.

 

[Judge_Smails]

I said it earlier in the season about Carmichael. There is a certain level of instinct required to be a successful HC, as well as a coordinator. They aren't necessarily the same, but they also aren't mutually exclusive (coordinator vs HC). One is kind of restricted to gameplanning and play calling while the other also involves a lot of messaging, management, and decision making.

Payton had a ton of instinct, both as a play-caller and a HC. He was rare. I have had assistant coaches who go on to be great cooridnators, even one who has become a pretty good HC. I've had others who are great technicians, great teachers, but can't break out of it. It's usually the lack of instinct and feel for the higher-stakes decision making.

This is what I, personally, feel DA lacks. It's not intelligence. It's the HC instincts.

I hope he proves me wrong.

It’s partly why not every PhD in Mathematics is capable of being a successful professional poker player.

 

[SoggyBottomBoy]

Going into the 2012, Payton suspension year I thought we'd keep it going after coming off a 13-3 season and crushing loss to S.F. We still had Brees as a "coach on the field" and a great roster. We finished with a disappointing 7-9 record. But we also set the record for the historically worst defense ever with Spagnuolo as DC and Kroemer and Joe Vitt as interim head coaches. Not a stellar group to run the team, even with Coach Brees at QB. So it was hard to gauge how much of the decline was due to the lack of Sean Payton.

So, even though the hiring of Dennis Allen didn't make be feel warm and fuzzy, I really thought the strategy was a sound one and had my hopes up. I even gave him a lot of rope. He simply hasn't delivered. This is a good roster of players IMO. We should be winning, even with the injuries. This team has been in every game except the Ravens game and amazingly beat the Falcons after being dominated for 3.5 quarters. Everyone was dreading the 49ers routing us leading up to the game, but that game was very winnable. Just like the Bucs, Bengals, Carolina, Cards & Vikings games.

We're so close, but yet so far. (sigh)

 

[Mrpoplus]

You have two types of problems.

1 - Problems of talent. I don't care who you are, this player is not going to beat this other player. Suffice to say, most areas I don't think the Saints have this problem, except when their top players get injured.

2 - Problems of motivation. The way you spot a problem of motivation is you get into a situation where the "life" of a player depends on it. Can they execute?

We saw in the Raiders game, this team CAN execute. However, without the right focus and motivation, this team will not.

Motivation is a problem of coaching. Which coaches? There is only one name that is accountable = DA.

I think DA next season has the hardest training camp we've ever had. Like Millsaps hard. Safe to say, I think DA thought this job would be a lot easier with the team he inherited. He needs to learn how to motivate?

I think he will get at least another year (i.e. another entire season) but maybe even two!

I sure hope not . You have to trust your eyes at this point and see that DA is not and never will be a good Head Coach . He lacks fire and passion and it seems players are taking advantage of that and don’t respect him or either not buying what he’s selling . Hope upper management learns from Carolina and Matt Rhule and move on before they lose the culture and fan base .

 

[Booker]

Going into the 2012, Payton suspension year I thought we'd keep it going after coming off a 13-3 season and crushing loss to S.F. We still had Brees as a "coach on the field" and a great roster. We finished with a disappointing 7-9 record. But we also set the record for the historically worst defense ever with Spagnuolo as DC and Kroemer and Joe Vitt as interim head coaches. Not a stellar group to run the team, even with Coach Brees at QB. So it was hard to gauge how much of the decline was due to the lack of Sean Payton.

So, even though the hiring of Dennis Allen didn't make be feel warm and fuzzy, I really thought the strategy was a sound one and had my hopes up. I even gave him a lot of rope. He simply hasn't delivered. This is a good roster of players IMO. We should be winning, even with the injuries. This team has been in every game except the Ravens game and amazingly beat the Falcons after being dominated for 3.5 quarters. Everyone was dreading the 49ers routing us leading up to the game, but that game was very winnable. Just like the Bucs, Bengals, Carolina, Cards & Vikings games.

We're so close, but yet so far. (sigh)

The product on the field this season has definitely reminded me of 2012, where you can really see the difference in coaching that Payton made. There's a lack of attention to detail and an inability to rise above adversity. Guys are just going through the motions.

And it's like with both teams they had placeholders for coaches, just trying to keep the seat warm without Payton -- except in DA's case Payton isn't coming back.

 

[truerjulie]

I'm working an article that will be focusing more on X's and O's (something positive/informative to pull from recent games), but I do want to weigh in on the course of the season.

As a coach it's important to emphasize that games, seasons--they aren't over until they are over. You are constantly focusing on corrections, the next play, the next game, how to win, how to turn things around, even as the season slips away and everything seems to be going wrong, constantly.

But as a fan, I have to say that it is hard to see the Saints turning this around. It's been hard to see it for really a few weeks now. You want to stay optimistic, but to course-correct the season at this point would require a monumental change in fortune. Some of it--like injuries, questionable penalties or judgement calls by officials, the ball just bouncing the wrong way--is out of the team's control. Other issues... they may have once been in their control, but now they have taken on a life of their own.

I can't speak for all coaches, but I kind of refer to this as inertia. The ship is already gaining momentum in one direction and turning it around now is going to take a multitude of events going right, much of which has now cascaded beyond our control. The mistakes, the turnovers, the missed opportunities--they have happened in so many different ways, so many uncharacteristic ways (good players missing tackles, good players fumbling the ball, good players unable to pull in timely turnovers themselves or else having them negated by the worst-timed penalties imaginable).

This sounds a little abstract, but it isn't. I've touched on it before how turnovers and penalties and critical mistakes don't just create losses, but losses also create turnovers, penalties, and critical mistakes. It's a feedback loop that very much exists, and once it begins it is difficult to interrupt--often because a coach or coaches who fail to address it properly (or, in the worst case, expect it to fix itself). There is usually a Rubicon, a point of no return--maybe it's 1-3, 1-4--where that cascade really starts to pick up pace and now everyone is pressing, is moving in different directions, trying to diagnose and correct problems individually because, frankly, the coaches have been unable to properly diagnose and correct them during that critical early period.

This is also called "losing the team."

Being a coach--especially a head coach--is a monumental task. I am often faulted as being "too generous" when it comes to giving coaches the benefit of the doubt because I've been on both sides of it. But there is definitely something missing in DA's performance. And no, I don't think it's the low-hanging fruit--the perceived lack of emotion on the sidelines or anything like that. I've been around championship coaches who were fiery and emotional, and others who were complete dorks. And while I don't feel comfortable affirmatively diagnosing what exactly is going on with him in particular, I can clearly see the signs of what is plaguing this team. I can see the poor decisions that led them here (granted, a lot of these can be diagnosed in hindsight, but even at the time they felt questionable, at best).

I preach a lot of things as an HC, but one I beat like a drum is that in close games, in critical games, you will have maybe 2 or 3 opportunities to win. Yesterday the Saints consistently missed on every one of those opportunities. Some, like the Olave "drop" was a convoluted and, in my mind, TERRIBLE call by the refs (no conspiracy, just a crap call). But there were other chances to make up for it. There was the drop by Juwan Johnson. The fumbles by Kamara. The interception by Alontae Taylor--a GREAT play that could have easily swung the game--negated by a dumb mistake by Chris Harris.

So how do you win on those opportunities? You do it through preparation. Mental preparation, film, emphasizing situationals during practice. When I start scouting a team, especially one with whom we maybe don't match up extremely favorably, I start looking for those critical situations. Is there a defender who bites on the double move? Let's get those cutups. What part of the field does like to jump the slant or the stick? What formation on what down and distance gives us plus numbers in the run game? Where have they struggled in the red zone? Where on the field can we take a shot and have the highest percentage of success (a one-on-one, a pressure we can eat)? Where do they set the back on 3rd and long in their protection, and how can we get him in a 2 on 1? What route combos can we bait them into a turnover?

Now you narrow that down--pick maybe 3 of those "opportunities"--and you emphasize them, simulating them in practice. They like to throw smash against cover 2 between the 40s? Let's bait them into a pick, work on the CBs hesitating on their sink and then bailing late to try and snag the throw to the corner.

I'm actually oversimplifying here, but if there is one area where I feel like the Saints are just missing, constantly, repeatedly, it is that they are consistently failing to emphasize--or emphasize correctly--those situational opportunities that can win games. Maybe the other teams are out-scouting, out-preparing them? Maybe they are just too busy trying to correct tackling and blocking to find the time/resources in practice to get detailed. But Sean Payton was an example of a coach who always seemed to hit on the right opportunities.

Why do the Saints' most talented players a look to be in regression? To me, this is a big part of it. Why do we keep fumbling inside the ten, why are we not turning the ball over on defense, why are we dropping critical passes? Why are the Saints the absolute worst team in the league at the end of the half (and in that critical 8 minutes in the middle of the game--last 4 minutes before and first 4 minutes after halftime, when so many games are won and lost)?

A lot of it comes down to emphasis. And a lot of poor emphasis comes down to simple understanding and awareness. Unlike injuries, this is something the Saints have a lot more control over. But the coaches are not getting it done. And as much as I hope the Saints will win out the rest season, I just don't see this getting corrected anytime soon.

This is one of the very few informed, insightful and measured evaluations of the Saints struggles I've seen this season. (Thank you!) The team has been tough to figure out this year, especially with so many injuries complicating the picture. It's tough to (accurately, not knee-jerk) evaluate the role coaching is playing in all of this, especially because DA has a different personality than Payton. He looks exactly the same this year as he did when he was our awesome defensive coordinator in previous years. I appreciate your suggestion that other aspects of being a head coach (situational management, preparation, decision-making) might be what Allen is actually struggling with. (The man can was a great DC; the gap between that job and HC comes down to the stuff you're pointing to.) Those are also the kinds of skills you probably get the least practice honing until you're actually IN the top job. If we'd had better luck with injuries we'd probably be at .500 and maybe the fan reactions would be slightly less hysterical. Or maybe not, LOL.

 

[VPCajun]

Appreciate it. The team is the Telfs Patriots playing in the Austrian Football League. I move up there at the beginning of the year. For now you can follow them/me on social media. If it's alright with Andrus I'll post the Livestreams to our games here once the season starts (season is in the spring).

Did you have to learn to speak Austrian??? lol

(This is a poke at Obama...)

 

[VPCajun]

English translation of the Austrian, er, German part (I used an online translator):

New head coach for the Telfs Patriots

The 38-year-old American Daniel Levy will take over the leadership of the Telfs Patriots squad as the new head coach in the upcoming 2023 AFL season. Coach Levy is a very experienced and most importantly successful trainer with a win-loss record of 78-18. He is the designated candidate of choice from predecessor Nick Kleinhansl, who only recently moved to the club's front office.

With the assumption of the head coach post, Daniel Levy returns to the coaching business after a break of two years.

After graduating from Texan Christian University, he first came to Europe as a player, where he played as a running back and linebacker with the U.L. Vikings won the 2007 National Championship in Ireland and also had three season MVP's.

He started his coaching career in 2010 in his home country at the Episcopal School in Baton Rouge/Louisiana as a running back and linebacker coach. He completed his first head coaching position with the Kristiansand Gladiators in Norway. With this team he immediately reached the playoffs and the final as a promoted player in the top division.

In the years that followed, he was able to win two national championship titles in Brazil and one in the Czech Republic with the teams he coached. Most recently in 2018 with the Prague Black Panthers. In addition, he was also able to claim various awards such as Coach of the Year, various conference titles and participation in finals. Most recently, he was offensive coordinator with the Bolzano Giants in the final of the CEFL Cup.

Away from the field, Coach Levy is repeatedly invited to speak at various conventions, such as the American Football Coaches Association.

“We really wanted Coach Levy and we are very happy that he chose us. His successes speak for themselves. With Daniel we get a meticulous worker and great motivator who will take our squad to the next level and also further develop the organization behind it.' David Mariani (President)

 

[bearze34]

TCU, thank you for the analysis.

I agree.....thanks. I have thought basically the same thing for weeks. Seemingly, every fumble bounces away from us. Every big play is negated by a penalty. Turnovers are the rule not the exception. It gets to a point that luck doesn't adequately explain it. It has to be coaching. Overall, however, we are not bereft of talent. The defense is close to a top 5 defense and we have a few offensive playmakers. We really need a whole new front office with a fresh perspective.

 

[strandedsaint]

I am not a big fan of firing a HC or his staff in the middle of the season. Often times it divides the locker room way more than keeping him around. It upsets the balance, creates an environment of insecurity, and is often followed by a mass offseason exodus.

And as @AARPSaint said, you need to have a plan to replace someone (a coach, a player, etc.) before you throw em out.

Also, I'm gonna be blunt--this "low IQ" crap is just beyond juvenile. You don't make it to the NFL, period, even as a quality control coach, with a "low IQ". Coaching is one of the hardest, most demanding professions in existence. And humanizing someone isn't "forcing optimism."

Criticism from place of ignorance is unproductive. DA's IQ is not the issue. It might be personality, temperament, experience, but he's not dumb. That's just people not understanding what's happening and lashing out in anger, reaching for the simplest, most caveman supposition. Sorry if that sounds a little testy, but having coached for over a decade now, I really take issue with that because I've had those same insults thrown at me by people who didn't know their a** from their elbow.

To wrap things up, I don't think Loomis is in any jeopardy here. I also don't know his relationship with DA, but I know he's probably given a little grace since he's been part of the organization for so long (and coached really well as the DC). I think he's probably having some difficult sit-downs with management. The injuries, in the end, might be his saving grace, but this season has been a massive disappointment.

I really appreciate your perspective Dan. You're in the game / industry for a long time, so your opinion carries weight (with me at least) I too get tired of reading b.s. derogatory comments hurled every where and at everyone. I played ball to college level and have also coached for several years. So i understand the situation. I like Mickey Loomis and agree that he is in no danger. However, i think the coaching staff may be in over there heads. DA is a great DC but that doesn't mean he's a HC. Huge difference in responsibility and requirements.

 

[TCUDan]

Did you have to learn to speak Austrian??? lol

(This is a poke at Obama...)

Nah, I'm not single anymore. No motivation to learn the local language.

Plus we re-signed our American QB. As long as he understands me, we're cooking.

 

[VPCajun]

Nah, I'm not single anymore. No motivation to learn the local language.

Plus we re-signed our American QB. As long as he understands me, we're cooking.

He sounds like a winner!


English translation of the German (Used online translator):

Patriots re-sign Aaron Adriaan Ellis 🖊

Quarterback Aaron Ellis was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league this past AFL season and was a big part of the Patriots' sensational performance in their ascent year.

With 36 touchdowns thrown and 3 self-running, he led the offense through the regular season and to a playoff spot. He completed 208 of his 353 passes for 3,156 yards in just 4 interceptions. With 136 rushing yards, he showed himself to be a keen runner and collected important yards for the Goldhelme from the Tyrolean Oberland.

In the semifinals and minor finals of the playoffs, he increased to an additional 5 touchdowns and 521 yards thrown.

He is currently still in Japan as a quarterback with the Dentsu Caterpillars Tokyo in the X1 Area League and is playing unbeaten for the title on Saturday.

'We are extremely pleased that we were able to win Aaron for another season. He was the heart of the great offense last year and was also very committed to the club off the field. We are relying on continuity and can continue there seamlessly We're working where we left off at the end of the season. He believes in our path and wants to continue on this path with us. Together with our new head coach Daniel Levy, we've fulfilled two of the three most important points in order to get the squad into the To be able to present well positioned in the offseason.' David Mariani (President)

'I'm excited to come back to one of my favorite places in Europe plus playing for an amazing coach like Dan Levy is a no Brainer. I felt we didn't reach our full potential last year and I'm all in on getting to play for an Austrian championship with my guys! Telfs family let's run it back! Can't wait to see you all again at our first game!' Aaron Ellis (quarterback)

And here's a Wiki piece on him: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_Ellis

 

[sfidc3]

But we got a lot of guys back yesterday, and the result was the same. I, for one, have seen enough of DA. I am hoping he will be let go at the end of the season, and Loomis will go out and find a young, inventive, hungry coordinator who is poised to be a HC (don't care if it's offense or defense) to get the club back into playoff contention.

My hopes exactly….I honestly wish we could keep DA around as a DC but not very likely….Of course I think Dan is spot on when he talks about the elements that make up a great HC and it appears that DA lacks the decision making, management and motivational aspects of the job….I just don’t see that suddenly changing….

His first 3 years were mediocre, but the 4th year he was 11-5 and won a playoff game. In 1995 the team started out 3-1, then the media got wind that the team was going to be moved out of Cleveland and the team sort of quit on the season. Hard to keep a team focused when the team isn't going to exist as it is when the season ends.

Since Belichick isn't known for his sunny disposition, it was easy to fire him and start new in Baltimore. He had the team moving in the right direction, but got hamstrung by the politics surrounding the Browns leaving Cleveland.

Yup, the Browns were a dumpster fire as an organization that year. Stability and structure in the FO and above are absolutely critical. That’s what makes the situation right now with DA fairly obvious, the Saints FO and management haven’t changed and for god sakes they need to give Loomis a different title and promote Jeff Ireland to GM, he is the one guy I don’t want to lose…..

 

[superhooper]

Great opinion Dan! but you left one thing out. What do we do going forward? WHat is the next step? What would you say to DA? What would you say to Loomis?

Unfortunately next year looks like more of the same. Loomis trading away CJGJ for nothing. Giving our 1st round pick away again, salary cap problems, etc. This has put the Saints in a big hole. Loomis can't dig us out of this without some painful seasons for us fans.