Explained Football, cascading mistakes, and the inescapability of 'inertia' (1 Viewer)

Hi Dan - as always, thanks for the time & effort put into your analysis for us fans

I wanted to get your thoughts on what you think the reason is for the Saints offense & defense never seeming to be on the same page. Not sure if the stats back this up but the feeling I've had during most of the games this year is that when the defense seems to have figured things out, and is performing at a high level, the offense is completely off the mark and can never seem to capitalize on the D keeping the opponent's score low. Then in another game, the offense seems to be clicking and scoring points, but the defense struggles and allows opposing teams to keep up with our offense production.

What you mentioned before about Dennis & crew not having enough resources to do it all made me think this might be the case where there is only so much attention to go around during week prep and only one side of the ball can benefit. Otherwise, is this just a product of the team we happen to be playing that week, and how we match up?

Thanks in advance!
 
I'm working an article that will be focusing more on X's and O's (something positive/informative to pull from recent games), but I do want to weigh in on the course of the season.

As a coach it's important to emphasize that games, seasons--they aren't over until they are over. You are constantly focusing on corrections, the next play, the next game, how to win, how to turn things around, even as the season slips away and everything seems to be going wrong, constantly.

But as a fan, I have to say that it is hard to see the Saints turning this around. It's been hard to see it for really a few weeks now. You want to stay optimistic, but to course-correct the season at this point would require a monumental change in fortune. Some of it--like injuries, questionable penalties or judgement calls by officials, the ball just bouncing the wrong way--is out of the team's control. Other issues... they may have once been in their control, but now they have taken on a life of their own.

I can't speak for all coaches, but I kind of refer to this as inertia. The ship is already gaining momentum in one direction and turning it around now is going to take a multitude of events going right, much of which has now cascaded beyond our control. The mistakes, the turnovers, the missed opportunities--they have happened in so many different ways, so many uncharacteristic ways (good players missing tackles, good players fumbling the ball, good players unable to pull in timely turnovers themselves or else having them negated by the worst-timed penalties imaginable).

This sounds a little abstract, but it isn't. I've touched on it before how turnovers and penalties and critical mistakes don't just create losses, but losses also create turnovers, penalties, and critical mistakes. It's a feedback loop that very much exists, and once it begins it is difficult to interrupt--often because a coach or coaches who fail to address it properly (or, in the worst case, expect it to fix itself). There is usually a Rubicon, a point of no return--maybe it's 1-3, 1-4--where that cascade really starts to pick up pace and now everyone is pressing, is moving in different directions, trying to diagnose and correct problems individually because, frankly, the coaches have been unable to properly diagnose and correct them during that critical early period.

This is also called "losing the team."

Being a coach--especially a head coach--is a monumental task. I am often faulted as being "too generous" when it comes to giving coaches the benefit of the doubt because I've been on both sides of it. But there is definitely something missing in DA's performance. And no, I don't think it's the low-hanging fruit--the perceived lack of emotion on the sidelines or anything like that. I've been around championship coaches who were fiery and emotional, and others who were complete dorks. And while I don't feel comfortable affirmatively diagnosing what exactly is going on with him in particular, I can clearly see the signs of what is plaguing this team. I can see the poor decisions that led them here (granted, a lot of these can be diagnosed in hindsight, but even at the time they felt questionable, at best).

I preach a lot of things as an HC, but one I beat like a drum is that in close games, in critical games, you will have maybe 2 or 3 opportunities to win. Yesterday the Saints consistently missed on every one of those opportunities. Some, like the Olave "drop" was a convoluted and, in my mind, TERRIBLE call by the refs (no conspiracy, just a crap call). But there were other chances to make up for it. There was the drop by Juwan Johnson. The fumbles by Kamara. The interception by Alontae Taylor--a GREAT play that could have easily swung the game--negated by a dumb mistake by Chris Harris.

So how do you win on those opportunities? You do it through preparation. Mental preparation, film, emphasizing situationals during practice. When I start scouting a team, especially one with whom we maybe don't match up extremely favorably, I start looking for those critical situations. Is there a defender who bites on the double move? Let's get those cutups. What part of the field does like to jump the slant or the stick? What formation on what down and distance gives us plus numbers in the run game? Where have they struggled in the red zone? Where on the field can we take a shot and have the highest percentage of success (a one-on-one, a pressure we can eat)? Where do they set the back on 3rd and long in their protection, and how can we get him in a 2 on 1? What route combos can we bait them into a turnover?

Now you narrow that down--pick maybe 3 of those "opportunities"--and you emphasize them, simulating them in practice. They like to throw smash against cover 2 between the 40s? Let's bait them into a pick, work on the CBs hesitating on their sink and then bailing late to try and snag the throw to the corner.

I'm actually oversimplifying here, but if there is one area where I feel like the Saints are just missing, constantly, repeatedly, it is that they are consistently failing to emphasize--or emphasize correctly--those situational opportunities that can win games. Maybe the other teams are out-scouting, out-preparing them? Maybe they are just too busy trying to correct tackling and blocking to find the time/resources in practice to get detailed. But Sean Payton was an example of a coach who always seemed to hit on the right opportunities.

Why do the Saints' most talented players a look to be in regression? To me, this is a big part of it. Why do we keep fumbling inside the ten, why are we not turning the ball over on defense, why are we dropping critical passes? Why are the Saints the absolute worst team in the league at the end of the half (and in that critical 8 minutes in the middle of the game--last 4 minutes before and first 4 minutes after halftime, when so many games are won and lost)?

A lot of it comes down to emphasis. And a lot of poor emphasis comes down to simple understanding and awareness. Unlike injuries, this is something the Saints have a lot more control over. But the coaches are not getting it done. And as much as I hope the Saints will win out the rest season, I just don't see this getting corrected anytime soon.

I really like what you say here about the feedback loop. I’m a firm believer in the Bill Parcells adage - “You are what your record says you are.”

Your record is bad, and even if you have the best personnel on the planet but had a few unlucky breaks early in the year, suddenly you find yourself just constantly making errors. A prime example of this - Tampa Bay.

The same works in reverse - a so-so team gets a few lucky breaks early, and finds themselves with a good record, suddenly that momentum transforms into the type of team they are, the mistakes become fewer, etc. A prime example of this I think is maybe Minnesota.
 
You have two types of problems.

1 - Problems of talent. I don't care who you are, this player is not going to beat this other player. Suffice to say, most areas I don't think the Saints have this problem, except when their top players get injured.

2 - Problems of motivation. The way you spot a problem of motivation is you get into a situation where the "life" of a player depends on it. Can they execute?

We saw in the Raiders game, this team CAN execute. However, without the right focus and motivation, this team will not.

Motivation is a problem of coaching. Which coaches? There is only one name that is accountable = DA.

I think DA next season has the hardest training camp we've ever had. Like Millsaps hard. Safe to say, I think DA thought this job would be a lot easier with the team he inherited. He needs to learn how to motivate?

I think he will get at least another year (i.e. another entire season) but maybe even two!
It´s a lot harder to motivate people than you might realize, and some people don´t have that skill because of deep seated issues. Sometimes it goes back to the role models who taught you, and the way you replicate that teaching, whether you replicate it consciously or not. But when you are rubbing people the wrong way and have players openly question your decisions, it means you are doing something wrong.
This reminds me of the time Spagnuolo took over as HC... players where openly questioning his coaching style, and that is never a good sign.
 
I'm working an article that will be focusing more on X's and O's (something positive/informative to pull from recent games), but I do want to weigh in on the course of the season.

As a coach it's important to emphasize that games, seasons--they aren't over until they are over. You are constantly focusing on corrections, the next play, the next game, how to win, how to turn things around, even as the season slips away and everything seems to be going wrong, constantly.

But as a fan, I have to say that it is hard to see the Saints turning this around. It's been hard to see it for really a few weeks now. You want to stay optimistic, but to course-correct the season at this point would require a monumental change in fortune. Some of it--like injuries, questionable penalties or judgement calls by officials, the ball just bouncing the wrong way--is out of the team's control. Other issues... they may have once been in their control, but now they have taken on a life of their own.

I can't speak for all coaches, but I kind of refer to this as inertia. The ship is already gaining momentum in one direction and turning it around now is going to take a multitude of events going right, much of which has now cascaded beyond our control. The mistakes, the turnovers, the missed opportunities--they have happened in so many different ways, so many uncharacteristic ways (good players missing tackles, good players fumbling the ball, good players unable to pull in timely turnovers themselves or else having them negated by the worst-timed penalties imaginable).

This sounds a little abstract, but it isn't. I've touched on it before how turnovers and penalties and critical mistakes don't just create losses, but losses also create turnovers, penalties, and critical mistakes. It's a feedback loop that very much exists, and once it begins it is difficult to interrupt--often because a coach or coaches who fail to address it properly (or, in the worst case, expect it to fix itself). There is usually a Rubicon, a point of no return--maybe it's 1-3, 1-4--where that cascade really starts to pick up pace and now everyone is pressing, is moving in different directions, trying to diagnose and correct problems individually because, frankly, the coaches have been unable to properly diagnose and correct them during that critical early period.

This is also called "losing the team."

Being a coach--especially a head coach--is a monumental task. I am often faulted as being "too generous" when it comes to giving coaches the benefit of the doubt because I've been on both sides of it. But there is definitely something missing in DA's performance. And no, I don't think it's the low-hanging fruit--the perceived lack of emotion on the sidelines or anything like that. I've been around championship coaches who were fiery and emotional, and others who were complete dorks. And while I don't feel comfortable affirmatively diagnosing what exactly is going on with him in particular, I can clearly see the signs of what is plaguing this team. I can see the poor decisions that led them here (granted, a lot of these can be diagnosed in hindsight, but even at the time they felt questionable, at best).

I preach a lot of things as an HC, but one I beat like a drum is that in close games, in critical games, you will have maybe 2 or 3 opportunities to win. Yesterday the Saints consistently missed on every one of those opportunities. Some, like the Olave "drop" was a convoluted and, in my mind, TERRIBLE call by the refs (no conspiracy, just a crap call). But there were other chances to make up for it. There was the drop by Juwan Johnson. The fumbles by Kamara. The interception by Alontae Taylor--a GREAT play that could have easily swung the game--negated by a dumb mistake by Chris Harris.

So how do you win on those opportunities? You do it through preparation. Mental preparation, film, emphasizing situationals during practice. When I start scouting a team, especially one with whom we maybe don't match up extremely favorably, I start looking for those critical situations. Is there a defender who bites on the double move? Let's get those cutups. What part of the field does like to jump the slant or the stick? What formation on what down and distance gives us plus numbers in the run game? Where have they struggled in the red zone? Where on the field can we take a shot and have the highest percentage of success (a one-on-one, a pressure we can eat)? Where do they set the back on 3rd and long in their protection, and how can we get him in a 2 on 1? What route combos can we bait them into a turnover?

Now you narrow that down--pick maybe 3 of those "opportunities"--and you emphasize them, simulating them in practice. They like to throw smash against cover 2 between the 40s? Let's bait them into a pick, work on the CBs hesitating on their sink and then bailing late to try and snag the throw to the corner.

I'm actually oversimplifying here, but if there is one area where I feel like the Saints are just missing, constantly, repeatedly, it is that they are consistently failing to emphasize--or emphasize correctly--those situational opportunities that can win games. Maybe the other teams are out-scouting, out-preparing them? Maybe they are just too busy trying to correct tackling and blocking to find the time/resources in practice to get detailed. But Sean Payton was an example of a coach who always seemed to hit on the right opportunities.

Why do the Saints' most talented players a look to be in regression? To me, this is a big part of it. Why do we keep fumbling inside the ten, why are we not turning the ball over on defense, why are we dropping critical passes? Why are the Saints the absolute worst team in the league at the end of the half (and in that critical 8 minutes in the middle of the game--last 4 minutes before and first 4 minutes after halftime, when so many games are won and lost)?

A lot of it comes down to emphasis. And a lot of poor emphasis comes down to simple understanding and awareness. Unlike injuries, this is something the Saints have a lot more control over. But the coaches are not getting it done. And as much as I hope the Saints will win out the rest season, I just don't see this getting corrected anytime soon.
Thank's Dan.

Completely unrelated.. but.. TCU's looking pretty good this year, huh?

I'm reminded of The Replacements when Falco is talking about Quicksand. Things go wrong, and you try too hard. That's the Kamara fumble. He could have just gone down, but he's trying hard to make the play.
 
Underrated movie. Also, Kaden Elliss kinda reminds me of Danny the linebacker. Plays with a lot of intensity.

Watched it last night and I swear that Clifford Franklin is Kevin White. Super fast but can't catch a cold. But Kevin's turned into a hell of a gunner. Punt coverage team has massively improved since he came back.
 
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Appreciate it. The team is the Telfs Patriots playing in the Austrian Football League. I move up there at the beginning of the year. For now you can follow them/me on social media. If it's alright with Andrus I'll post the Livestreams to our games here once the season starts (season is in the spring).
Absolutely! Looking forward to that!
 
Sean Payton was also demoted as an OC with the Giants. Nick Saban had a lot of trouble coaching in the NFL.

It is a complicated profession. One wrong hire, one wrong signing, one run-in with incompetent/ego-driven management or ownership can put a massive dent in a coaching career. DA of course has agency in all this, but that's also why the sweeping generalizations about who he is or these assertions that he's suddenly a dumb-dumb are just ridiculous. He's had success in the NFL. Maybe not as an HC, but he has had success. He may not be right for the Saints, but it's totally plausible that he ends up having success somewhere else.

Or, better yet, in New Orleans, starting with these last few games. That's still the best-case scenario.

Also, worth noting: All of us, including myself, underestimated the importance of Brees and Payton to the success of this franchise.
This was kinda what I was going to ask. Seems DA had a slow start at DC but ultimately made a fantastic unit out of those guys. If given the time can he do it as HC? I don't see them firing him after 1 season and I'm not even sure I want them too. I would always maybe wonder if he could've turned it around with another year or two. No matter the coach there was going to be a fall off after SP.....at least with him I've seen him start slow with a unit and recover.
 
Appreciate it. The team is the Telfs Patriots playing in the Austrian Football League. I move up there at the beginning of the year. For now you can follow them/me on social media. If it's alright with Andrus I'll post the Livestreams to our games here once the season starts (season is in the spring).


I live in Munich just about 90 minutes away. It's a beautiful area!! Was just in Innsbruck last week. Absolutely great.

Anyway enjoy and thank you for your contributions here.
 
Loomis is in no jeopardy because of his relationship with the owner and his high status in the organization. But in any coaching search, the top prospects will want to know from the general manager what is the plan for the future--will the team draft differently, will it seriously address the salary cap, what players can and cannot be traded, and what are the expectations for the team for the next year and the two years thereafter.

I do know this: Without dramatic changes in the organization in January and in free agency, season-ticket and suite sales are going to be ugly. Gayle and Lauscha can perhaps ignore the fan unrest for one year. But I know of too many season-ticket holders who are seriously thinking about not renewing. I am one.
The Saints would have to have a Dick Nolan, Bum Philips, Haslett and Ditka string of bad seasons for season ticket sales to take a hit. Suite sales typically do not hinge on the quality of the on-field product.
 
Going into the 2012, Payton suspension year I thought we'd keep it going after coming off a 13-3 season and crushing loss to S.F. We still had Brees as a "coach on the field" and a great roster. We finished with a disappointing 7-9 record. But we also set the record for the historically worst defense ever with Spagnuolo as DC and Kroemer and Joe Vitt as interim head coaches. Not a stellar group to run the team, even with Coach Brees at QB. So it was hard to gauge how much of the decline was due to the lack of Sean Payton.

So, even though the hiring of Dennis Allen didn't make be feel warm and fuzzy, I really thought the strategy was a sound one and had my hopes up. I even gave him a lot of rope. He simply hasn't delivered. This is a good roster of players IMO. We should be winning, even with the injuries. This team has been in every game except the Ravens game and amazingly beat the Falcons after being dominated for 3.5 quarters. Everyone was dreading the 49ers routing us leading up to the game, but that game was very winnable. Just like the Bucs, Bengals, Carolina, Cards & Vikings games.

We're so close, but yet so far. (sigh)
Carmichael does not have SP's feel for calling plays. That was evident in 2012. Our offensive statistics were very misleading. We lost to every good opponent we faced that season outside of Atlanta and lost to several grossly inferior opponents.
 
Loomis is in no jeopardy because of his relationship with the owner and his high status in the organization. But in any coaching search, the top prospects will want to know from the general manager what is the plan for the future--will the team draft differently, will it seriously address the salary cap, what players can and cannot be traded, and what are the expectations for the team for the next year and the two years thereafter.

I do know this: Without dramatic changes in the organization in January and in free agency, season-ticket and suite sales are going to be ugly. Gayle and Lauscha can perhaps ignore the fan unrest for one year. But I know of too many season-ticket holders who are seriously thinking about not renewing. I am one.
Each year my reluctance to renew my season tickets increases, but it is not due to the Saints organization and how they handle things. Even when they do knucklehead things. Those knuckleheads had me hooked on their first game when I was in the third grade.

If I ditch my tickets it's because the overall lack of integrity of the NFL and the game is pushing me away. There are ways to improve officiating, but they avoid them and keep a degree of ambiguity and interpretation to the rules. Draw your own conclusions. I have. I don't want to believe the game isn't on the up & up, but my eyes tell me differently. And I'm P.O.ed because I've always loved the game.
 
Dan,
Great job as usual. On a somewhat different topic, I assume you saw the Sean Payton interview calling USC quarterback Caleb Williams a "generational talent" that teams may tank for next year. Do you agree he is that good? The last generational QB talent, Trevor Lawrence is still a work in progress and some called Jameis a generational talent so nobody is a sure thing.

If that's the case, I think the Saints should begin a smaller rebuild effort where they take some of the differed salary cap hit in the 2023/2024 season. I am not suggesting a wholesale rebuild but we have to take some differed hit at some point, so next year would make sense to start to "pay the piper."

The logic being we should a bottom 10 team next year. Also I assume we have additional draft capital in 2024 if Sean Payton comes back to coaching. Hopefully this would position us well to move up in case someone like Houston, who should draft a quarterback this year, maybe will to trade the 1st pick.

With elite coaches and players choosing to play/coach teams with elite quarterback talent, Caleb could be the key piece to help draw elite talent to a smaller market that is not looked at as an appealing destination as many larger markets.
 
I've always believed that a head coach who consistently turns out championship level teams are just smarter than everybody else. But they're also driven by the need to be the best. I don't really see that in DA. He's probably a very smart guy and a good coach who will have another job as soon as he leaves this one. He's just not a HC.

I hope the people at the top see it that way.
 

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