(?) Formula for rating draft picks (1 Viewer)


Oct 2, 2005
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Snekkersten, DENMARK
Are there any official formula for rating draft picks made by a NFL team (regardles position and round taken)?

Something like Games started/games played /pro bowls/years with the club and so fourth...

Hanau Eepe Saint

Will Hill's #1 fan
Feb 21, 2009
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SSF (Scandinavian Saints Fan)
It's not perfect nor official but this was posted in an article yesterday:

So here's how the system works: We wanted to measure how a player did during the general length of his rookie contract, so we're only going to consider how he performed during the first five years of his NFL tenure after being drafted. That means we can only start the player pool at 2007, since they were the last draft class to play five full seasons, so we'll go back to 1997 in order to have a full decade of draftees. We then gave the player credit for achieving various tasks as follows:

  • Each game started: 1 point
  • Each game played as a substitute: 0.5 points
  • Each Pro Bowl appearance: 10 points
  • Each All-Pro appearance: 20 points
The All-Pro award superseded the Pro Bowl award if a player made both teams, so the maximum number of points a player could earn for one season's work is 36 (a 20-point All-Pro appearance and a full 16-game slate as a starter).
Finally, we then compared each player's point total over his five-year stretch to every player from 1997-2007 who played the same position and was taken within 10 selections of the player in question. So Tom Brady, for example, started 62 games (with two additional substitute appearances) during his first five seasons and made it to two Pro Bowls, producing 83 points of value for his team.<sup id="reffoot1">1</sup> He was taken with the 199th overall pick, so our study compared him to every other quarterback from that 11-year stretch who was selected between 189th and 209th in the draft. Those quarterbacks produced an average of 6.4 points of value, so Brady's selection resulted in 76.6 points more than the average quarterback taken in that range of the draft. You get it, right? Imperfect, but it can serve as a reasonable starting point for these sorts of discussions.
How can you tell which draft picks are truly valuable? - Grantland

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