Going for 2 to go up 9 points (3 Viewers)

[Stalwart385]

I like what Payton said about this. Basically, yes the numbers matter but ultimately it's about your team and that situation. As long as the analytics are close (and sometimes even if they are not), it's more about reading your team and making a decision. The analytics don't consider how your o-line is performing or if you lost a key guy to injury earlier. Do you have a play that you feel really good about?

I didn't see the game, so maybe it was an obviously bad call based on how the team is playing. I tend to not criticize coaches for this kind of stuff though. Based on these numbers or those numbers alone anyway.

 

[dbg]

You take the 8 point lead and force them to score and get a 2 to tie you which is a pretty low % for them. He bet the win on going for 2 and he lost. He's an interim coach so he can get away with that so I don't fault him.

 

[Brock Meaux]

It's the right call. Worst case scenario, you miss, it's a 7 point game, and your defense has two opportunities to keep them from scoring a TD, once in the 4th and (if they score) once in OT. Best case scenario, you make it and they have to score twice in under a minute and a half, so basically game over. Their offense was hot. And frankly, I don't think being up 8 would do much for them, because Derrick Henry was such an animal. You're not keeping him from getting 2 yards to tie the game on a conversion.

 

[44slayer]

The logic is sound. May not be wise by %s, but it’s got merit. Thinking is, if you’re up 7, and a team scores, it’s highly likely they’ll go for the xp and tie. If you kick the xp to go up 8, they are forced to go for 2. If you convert the 2, you are up 2 possessions.

So if you don’t trust your defense to stop a 2 point conversion, being up 7 is just as good as 8. So why not shoot for 9,

Up 7, opposing team will (usually) only try to tie. You end up tied.

Up 8, opposing team will go for 2. You don’t trust your D - you’re in the same position as if you were up 7. You end up tied.

Up 9, game changer.

 

[CoolBrees]

I always looked at football as a game of possessions, not points.

If you have a chance to go up by two possessions, especially late in the game, you take it

 

[Outbackjack]

93.6% at one point or 47.7% at two. That's 0.936 expected points for the kick, or 0.954 for the conversion try. The two narrowly wins out.

Either you are going to go for two, or they will. If you go for two and win, you clinch the game. If you go for two and fail, you go to overtime if they score a TD. If you kick, they kick, and you go to overtime if they score a TD.

There's zero down side in going for two. Even if you fail, you're in the same shape you were before.

You’re wrong.
You day if you kick, they kick and you go to overtimeif they score TD.
If you kick (up 8), they have to score and go for 2, which has a less than 50% to just tie.
Easy call for me....kick and put tremendous pressure on them to succeed twice (score TD, AND convert 2)

 

[WxM]

You’re wrong.
You day if you kick, they kick and you go to overtimeif they score TD.
If you kick (up 8), they have to score and go for 2, which has a less than 50% to just tie.
Easy call for me....kick and put tremendous pressure on them to succeed twice (score TD, AND convert 2)

I'm right. Either way you're going to have to face a conversion in order for the decision to matter. Going for two gives the upside with no down side.

 

[SaintsFanInLA]

I've never been a fan of chasing 2 pts when you don't need to. Points are at a premium in NFL games. Take them when they are presented. XPA are not guaranteed but I wouldn't eschew it unless I had to do so.

 

[abnrgr]

Watched the whole game. Texans couldn’t stop the Titans all game. They tried to outscore them. Going for two was the right call. In OT it was like four plays and a TD.

 

[ilvdsnts]

Its like going for 2 when you are down 1. Instead of playing for the tie and OT, you try to win it. Its basically what he did but 1 possession earlier. If they get the 2 they are up 9 and thats ball game. They went for the win. I got no problem with that, but a better play call may have been in order.

 

[44slayer]

Its like going for 2 when you are down 1. Instead of playing for the tie and OT, you try to win it. Its basically what he did but 1 possession earlier. If they get the 2 they are up 9 and thats ball game. They went for the win. I got no problem with that, but a better play call may have been in order.

That's correct, but the strategy is much more involved. The risk/reward is easily worth it to go for 2 if you are up 7. Even if you fail, you are still up 7, and the other team will in all likelihood just go for the tie to get it into OT. If you kick the XP, and you have a poor defense - you go up 8, the other team converts the 2PC and you are exactly where you would have been if you had gone for the 2pc yourself and failed. 7 or 8, either way you end up tied. Unless the opposing coach is a gambler down 7 and tries for the win on the 2pc - but that is the exception, not the norm. I think the Vikings did it to us years back when Tice was the HC, and it was the only game we wore the gold jerseys. But that Vikings team had nothing to lose, so going for 2 was a prayer that was just answered.

If Im up 7 late in the 4th quarter, 9/10 times in going to try to get to 9 instead of 8. 9 moves the needle.

 

[MG3n2K5]

When facing Derrick Henry, I like my chances of getting a 2 point conversion more than stopping Tennessee from getting a 2 point conversion. That's all you have to consider when making the decision, right decision bad play call.