Government Shutdown (Funding now expires 2/15/19) (1 Viewer)

superchuck500

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This one looking like it might happen, because two out of three interests seem to think it might help them - or at least not hurt them as much as others.

1. Democrats: (1) Trump gave them a huge gift when he proclaimed on live television that he would be proud to shut the government down over wall funding. There is always political risk to being party to a shutdown but that gave the Democrats strong plausible deniability and laid this shutdown right at Trump's feet. Had he not done that, he could have used his media advantage and gift for trash-talking to point the finger at the Democrats and that would have concerned them. Now, that pressure is lifted and though he will still try it, they have the upper hand (because he gave it to them); (2) the Democrats know that when the new Congress is sworn in, they will have a House majority, which gives them substantially more leverage to make bargains, so pushing funding debate back until January works in their favor.

2. Trump: (1) He knows that on January 3, 2019, things get dicier for him on Capitol Hill, so this might be his last best chance to get wall funding - so digging in now on the hopes that the Democrats will begin to get worried about losing face with the electorate might bring them around . . . this is probably not going to happen for the reasons stated above, but you never know how these things go until you get into them, so there's that; (2) Trump's base remains motivated by any appearance of 'insurgent' tactics to push their agenda - and "shutting down the government 'cause we can't get the wall built' likely plays well to that group and perhaps Trump sees the blue gains in November and things he needs to re-invigorate his 2016 demographic and a shutdown might actually help in that regard (not sure if that's true but it could be the calculus).

The Republicans in the Senate are the most obvious interest aligned against a shutdown. They know that shutdowns can be harmful and they know that Trump has already publicly claimed responsibility for any shutdown that might occur - so there's good reason for their concern that Trump might drag them along. To this end, it is clear that many Republican senators no longer feel that it is in their interest to remain aligned with Trump despite disagreement - the Saudi resolutions last week are clear proof of that.

Shutdowns really are problematic for many reasons - perhaps one of the most important (and overlooked by the average person) is just how much effort and energy it takes for a federal agency to go through a shutdown process. It requires every office within the agency to shift from the work they usually do in furtherance of their mission, to go through days of planning, paperwork, and contingency preparation to get a shutdown done in the orderly fashion it requires - and then there's work on the back end when they turn the lights back on. But perhaps because a shutdown from December 21 through the new year wouldn't have as noticeable impact as a shutdown in early October (when annual appropriations typically lapse), the interests involved have calculated that a shutdown now might be somewhat muted in its effect - making it more of a symbolic result than one that is truly damaging in the practical sense.

And that might actually increase the odds that it's going to happen. Right now, it appears that a shutdown is more likely than not.




 

xpuma20x

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How many people at, let's say $60,000 a year salary (I don't know what the average CBP officer makes without giving it a Google - EDIT: Indeed.com says $58,500), could be hired to increase border security, with the cost and annual upkeep of the wall? Seems like a good way to not only spark a great uptick in employment rates, but also increase the economy of many of the poor rural border towns.
 
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superchuck500

superchuck500

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How many people at, let's say $60,000 a year salary (I don't know what the average CBP officer makes without giving it a Google - EDIT: Indeed.com says $58,500), could be hired to increase border security, with the cost and annual upkeep of the wall? Seems like a good way to not only spark a great uptick in employment rates, but also increase the economy of many of the poor rural border towns.
Trump has already ordered the hiring of more than 5,000 additional CBP/ICE officers, but the agency has struggled at just remaining even/level on staffing. While the enhanced hiring budget and focus has helped, the agency continues to suffer from high attrition. Those jobs are often in remote or undesirable locations and with a general labor shortage in the US right now, it's easy for officers to move on to other jobs if they aren't happy at CBP.

See, e.g. https://www.leadertelegram.com/news/daily-updates/trump-s-order-for-more-border-patrol-agents-goes-unfilled/article_8da28567-b098-5071-91fd-bbc93d46542d.html

And certainly it isn't as simple as just hiring the people in the poor, rural border towns. The bare minimum qualifications for the lowest rung on the CBP officer ladder is for a GS-5 position (starting pay at $33,394) includes three years of general work experience (unless the applicant has a bachelor's degree). Plus all federal employees must pass a background check that includes criminal history and credit history. I think you can presume that qualifications and background checks are problematic for many people in poor border towns who are currently unemployed.

Given that DHS is already struggling to meet the 2017 hiring directive, it's hard to see how hiring more agents would be an effective plan.

https://www.leadertelegram.com/news/daily-updates/trump-s-order-for-more-border-patrol-agents-goes-unfilled/article_8da28567-b098-5071-91fd-bbc93d46542d.html
https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/salaries-wages/salary-tables/pdf/2019/RUS.pdf
 

Zztop

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I was involved in a debate on Facebook about this wall. I was advised that the wall would stop drugs from coming in. I advised the other party that most drugs come in through ports of entry. The other party then stated that was not true and how would I know. I asked the other party why would the Coast Guard seized drugs, since there is no border that they patrol? I then stated that last FY the CG seized some 228 metric tons of cocaine. This is just the numbers for the CG, no other agency. I asked the other party how many people and or/donkeys would it take to move that weight. I told her a metric ton is equal to roughly 2045 lbs. She then stated the wall would stop human trafficking . . .
you should send the person video of the tunnel dug 70 feet below san diego. walls seem to be a minor inconvenience
 
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superchuck500

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CBO says shutdown cost $11 billion, of which about $3 billion is permanent loss (won't be replaced by back-pay and deferred activity).

 

Goatman Saint

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How many people at, let's say $60,000 a year salary (I don't know what the average CBP officer makes without giving it a Google - EDIT: Indeed.com says $58,500), could be hired to increase border security, with the cost and annual upkeep of the wall? Seems like a good way to not only spark a great uptick in employment rates, but also increase the economy of many of the poor rural border towns.
Cost of maintenance of the wall would work out to be 100% of cost every 15 years
 
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superchuck500

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CBO: There's $11 billion in damage, $3 billion of which cannot be recouped.

White House: Nah. There's no damage!

 

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How many people at, let's say $60,000 a year salary (I don't know what the average CBP officer makes without giving it a Google - EDIT: Indeed.com says $58,500), could be hired to increase border security, with the cost and annual upkeep of the wall? Seems like a good way to not only spark a great uptick in employment rates, but also increase the economy of many of the poor rural border towns.
I started the process with the Border Patrol back in 09. I took the test in October. I received my results pretty fast. With my Veteran's Preference points I scored like a 95 on the test. I then took a PT test and a medical test in 2010. I then went to a board. Then I waited. I was then hired by my current agency and graduated from the academy in March 2011. I then heard from the Border Patrol and took a UI. I then supplied all documentation as far as my application package. I faxed it about 3 times then I had enough. So it took me almost two years and I still didn't make it all the way through. It's a long process. I feel it should be streamlined for certain individuals to get them in the field faster.
 

insidejob

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CBO: There's $11 billion in damage, $3 billion of which cannot be recouped.

White House: Nah. There's no damage!

From the White House that brought (and continues to bring) us "Alternative facts."

What about an American Ninja style obstacle course instead of a wall?
If you make it through ‘welcome to America ‘
This would be cool. Could even set up some mega, I mean maga, bleachers for spectators. Allow gambling too. We could turn immigration into a money making venture. Surely the Trump White House wouldn't turn down the option to make some money off this disaster they've created.
 

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From the White House that brought (and continues to bring) us "Alternative facts."


This would be cool. Could even set up some mega, I mean maga, bleachers for spectators. Allow gambling too. We could turn immigration into a money making venture. Surely the Trump White House wouldn't turn down the option to make some money off this disaster they've created.
Not all parts of the Hunger Games was a bad idea
 
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superchuck500

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The Government will shut down again at midnight this Friday (well, Saturday, technically). There has been little discussion in the media since about mid-week last week.

It appears that the lines remain drawn where they were in early January:

Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby on Sunday put the chances of reaching an agreement to stave off another partial government shutdown as "slim" as long as President Donald Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remain at odds.

In an interview on CNN's "State of the Union," the Alabama Republican told host Jake Tapper that “as long as the speaker and the president are at odds, the chances of us reaching an agreement are slim. But it could happen.”

"I believe we’ve got a chance this week to move things. Will we? I don’t know," Shelby added.

"The president could be right: We could be wasting our time. On the other hand, we could come up with a solution."

Trump and congressional Democrats remain at odds over funding for his desired wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Congress and the White House have until Feb. 15 to come to an agreement to keep the government running.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/03/chances-government-shutdown-1144292
 

crosswatt

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The Government will shut down again at midnight this Friday (well, Saturday, technically). There has been little discussion in the media since about mid-week last week.

It appears that the lines remain drawn where they were in early January:



https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/03/chances-government-shutdown-1144292
If only there was a previously proposed bipartisan backed bill that they could reintroduce or maybe copy some of the tenets of or at the very least use as a road map to reach an agreement or something...

Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013
 

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CBO says shutdown cost $11 billion, of which about $3 billion is permanent loss (won't be replaced by back-pay and deferred activity).

So the Friday before the re-opening, I had a small business owner tell me he is closing permanently at the end of the day. I went to another business who decided to close at noon. My last stop was closing at 3 despite being contractually obligated to be open until 7. He told me the cost of the fine would be less than the cost of labor minus profit. At lunch, I spoke to a woman in near tears because her NY landlord did care that DC was empty. She didn’t know how she was going to pay her commercial rent.

DC got hit hard by the closure.
 

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