Government Shutdown (Funding now expires 2/15/19) (1 Viewer)

superchuck500

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This one looking like it might happen, because two out of three interests seem to think it might help them - or at least not hurt them as much as others.

1. Democrats: (1) Trump gave them a huge gift when he proclaimed on live television that he would be proud to shut the government down over wall funding. There is always political risk to being party to a shutdown but that gave the Democrats strong plausible deniability and laid this shutdown right at Trump's feet. Had he not done that, he could have used his media advantage and gift for trash-talking to point the finger at the Democrats and that would have concerned them. Now, that pressure is lifted and though he will still try it, they have the upper hand (because he gave it to them); (2) the Democrats know that when the new Congress is sworn in, they will have a House majority, which gives them substantially more leverage to make bargains, so pushing funding debate back until January works in their favor.

2. Trump: (1) He knows that on January 3, 2019, things get dicier for him on Capitol Hill, so this might be his last best chance to get wall funding - so digging in now on the hopes that the Democrats will begin to get worried about losing face with the electorate might bring them around . . . this is probably not going to happen for the reasons stated above, but you never know how these things go until you get into them, so there's that; (2) Trump's base remains motivated by any appearance of 'insurgent' tactics to push their agenda - and "shutting down the government 'cause we can't get the wall built' likely plays well to that group and perhaps Trump sees the blue gains in November and things he needs to re-invigorate his 2016 demographic and a shutdown might actually help in that regard (not sure if that's true but it could be the calculus).

The Republicans in the Senate are the most obvious interest aligned against a shutdown. They know that shutdowns can be harmful and they know that Trump has already publicly claimed responsibility for any shutdown that might occur - so there's good reason for their concern that Trump might drag them along. To this end, it is clear that many Republican senators no longer feel that it is in their interest to remain aligned with Trump despite disagreement - the Saudi resolutions last week are clear proof of that.

Shutdowns really are problematic for many reasons - perhaps one of the most important (and overlooked by the average person) is just how much effort and energy it takes for a federal agency to go through a shutdown process. It requires every office within the agency to shift from the work they usually do in furtherance of their mission, to go through days of planning, paperwork, and contingency preparation to get a shutdown done in the orderly fashion it requires - and then there's work on the back end when they turn the lights back on. But perhaps because a shutdown from December 21 through the new year wouldn't have as noticeable impact as a shutdown in early October (when annual appropriations typically lapse), the interests involved have calculated that a shutdown now might be somewhat muted in its effect - making it more of a symbolic result than one that is truly damaging in the practical sense.

And that might actually increase the odds that it's going to happen. Right now, it appears that a shutdown is more likely than not.




 
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https://www.npr.org/2019/02/06/691937342/n-m-governor-pulls-national-guard-from-border-citing-a-charade-at-federal-level

New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has ordered the majority of National Guard troops deployed at her state's Southern border to withdraw, condemning what she called a "charade of border fear-mongering" by President Trump, who has warned of an immigration emergency in the region.

"I reject the federal contention that there exists an overwhelming national security crisis at the Southern border," Lujan Grisham said, adding that the area has "some of the safest communities in the country."
Looks like NM doesn't really think there's an emergency at the border.

 

mt15

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California is pulling their National Guard troops off the border and telling troops from other states to leave. The governor said there were more important duties for the CA troops and there is no crisis at the border. Heard it on TV so no link.
 

insidejob

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California is pulling their National Guard troops off the border and telling troops from other states to leave. The governor said there were more important duties for the CA troops and there is no crisis at the border. Heard it on TV so no link.
New Mexico is doing something similar. It was in the background while I was working on something, but they had the governor of NM on right after the CA delegation. I believe they're just recalling their National Guard troops from the border.

EDIT: They apparently did it five days ago and this was just the first I'd heard of it.
 

mt15

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I’m glad they’re standing up to the charade of a crisis at the border. It’s just crazy that people are even giving it any credence at all. Can you imagine what Republicans would have done had Obama mobilized the National Guard, claiming there was a crisis, when illegal border crossings are at a 50 year low? Somehow, Trump’s brand of crazy gets a pass though.
 
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superchuck500

superchuck500

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I’m glad they’re standing up to the charade of a crisis at the border. It’s just crazy that people are even giving it any credence at all. Can you imagine what Republicans would have done had Obama mobilized the National Guard, claiming there was a crisis, when illegal border crossings are at a 50 year low? Somehow, Trump’s brand of crazy gets a pass though.
I think the numbers have gone up quite a bit over the last five or six months - we're no longer at those lows. One could be skeptical, as the official numbers are from CBP, but the fact that the uptick really began in October, well before the 'emergency' threat was used, and given that it corresponds with international media coverage of migrant caravans, of mass exodus from Venezuela, and other known factors, I think there's reason to believe these numbers are accurate.

[1549895352634.png


https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration
 

Goatman Saint

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I’m kinda curious to see what’s going to happen in 110 hours. The republicans spent a lot of political capital and goodwill for nothing last time. Some people just got their checks, and now it’s going to happen again? I can’t imagine that the air traffic controllers and security people won’t say screw it and just walk off as they did to end the last one. I’m sure Anne Coulter and all are already going to be scheduled for the am news shows to goad Trump into throwing a fit again after he caved in the last time. It would be good theater if it wasn’t so appalling
 

Optimus Prime

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on the news yesterday they were saying that a big hold up in negotiations wasn't the wall but the detention centers
 

insidejob

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on the news yesterday they were saying that a big hold up in negotiations wasn't the wall but the detention centers
Yup. Democrats want to cap the number of beds so that ICE and CBP can't just keep filling beds and forgetting about people once they've got a bed. Can't blame them. These aren't supposed to be long term holding areas. They're supposed to be processing centers. We have federal prisons for any actual criminals they round up at the border.
 

Saint_Ward

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I think the numbers have gone up quite a bit over the last five or six months - we're no longer at those lows. One could be skeptical, as the official numbers are from CBP, but the fact that the uptick really began in October, well before the 'emergency' threat was used, and given that it corresponds with international media coverage of migrant caravans, of mass exodus from Venezuela, and other known factors, I think there's reason to believe these numbers are accurate.

[1549895352634.png


https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration
found it. this is the year to date, not a month by month breakdown.

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/crisis-border-not-numbers

which sources https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2017-Dec/BP Total Monthly Apps by Sector and Area, FY2000-FY2017.pdf

1549900318845.png
 

Saint_Ward

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In 2000, Tuscon by its self would be outpacing the entire border for apprehensions this year and previous years.


1549900531356.png
 

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