Government Shutdown (Funding now expires 2/15/19) (1 Viewer)

superchuck500

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This one looking like it might happen, because two out of three interests seem to think it might help them - or at least not hurt them as much as others.

1. Democrats: (1) Trump gave them a huge gift when he proclaimed on live television that he would be proud to shut the government down over wall funding. There is always political risk to being party to a shutdown but that gave the Democrats strong plausible deniability and laid this shutdown right at Trump's feet. Had he not done that, he could have used his media advantage and gift for trash-talking to point the finger at the Democrats and that would have concerned them. Now, that pressure is lifted and though he will still try it, they have the upper hand (because he gave it to them); (2) the Democrats know that when the new Congress is sworn in, they will have a House majority, which gives them substantially more leverage to make bargains, so pushing funding debate back until January works in their favor.

2. Trump: (1) He knows that on January 3, 2019, things get dicier for him on Capitol Hill, so this might be his last best chance to get wall funding - so digging in now on the hopes that the Democrats will begin to get worried about losing face with the electorate might bring them around . . . this is probably not going to happen for the reasons stated above, but you never know how these things go until you get into them, so there's that; (2) Trump's base remains motivated by any appearance of 'insurgent' tactics to push their agenda - and "shutting down the government 'cause we can't get the wall built' likely plays well to that group and perhaps Trump sees the blue gains in November and things he needs to re-invigorate his 2016 demographic and a shutdown might actually help in that regard (not sure if that's true but it could be the calculus).

The Republicans in the Senate are the most obvious interest aligned against a shutdown. They know that shutdowns can be harmful and they know that Trump has already publicly claimed responsibility for any shutdown that might occur - so there's good reason for their concern that Trump might drag them along. To this end, it is clear that many Republican senators no longer feel that it is in their interest to remain aligned with Trump despite disagreement - the Saudi resolutions last week are clear proof of that.

Shutdowns really are problematic for many reasons - perhaps one of the most important (and overlooked by the average person) is just how much effort and energy it takes for a federal agency to go through a shutdown process. It requires every office within the agency to shift from the work they usually do in furtherance of their mission, to go through days of planning, paperwork, and contingency preparation to get a shutdown done in the orderly fashion it requires - and then there's work on the back end when they turn the lights back on. But perhaps because a shutdown from December 21 through the new year wouldn't have as noticeable impact as a shutdown in early October (when annual appropriations typically lapse), the interests involved have calculated that a shutdown now might be somewhat muted in its effect - making it more of a symbolic result than one that is truly damaging in the practical sense.

And that might actually increase the odds that it's going to happen. Right now, it appears that a shutdown is more likely than not.




 
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superchuck500

superchuck500

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@superchuck500 You have to compare it to the late 90's and early 2000's.
Why? I can see the difference between a 35K monthly average and a 60K monthly average. Does it really matter all that much if it was 100K monthly average in the late 90s? It's still a lot of people and the trend has been back up in recent time.

It's not an all-time low anymore when the rate nearly doubles. It may still be low in reference to history but that wasn't the characterization I was responding to.
 

Saint_Ward

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Why? I can see the difference between a 35K monthly average and a 60K monthly average. Does it really matter all that much if it was 100K monthly average in the late 90s? It's still a lot of people and the trend has been back up in recent time.

It's not an all-time low anymore when the rate nearly doubles. It may still be low in reference to history but that wasn't the characterization I was responding to.
If you look at 2017 so far it is following a similar pattern. If you look at older data, you'd also see that Jan, Feb, etc were months where we'd have higher than average apprehensions. Probably due to the weather being nicer, and people are willing to walk across the border.

Sure, it's double early 2018 and some other years, but the month by month data, historically, doesn't follow that exact pattern.
 

dtc

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I think a wall is really pretty stupid. It’s an inanimate object just sitting there. Bunch of 2x4s, hammer, nails, saw and a rope is all that’s needed. Isn’t that hard to build a 30 foot ladder at Home Depot. Or shovels. Or a really good hacksaw. What would be way better is additional manpower along with drones, seismic probes, cameras, whatever which will alert the larger number of agents that things are moving.

However, I honestly don’t believe that people walking across the border is all that big of deal. Now if they were to put 5.4 billion into cargo checking and additional agents at ports of entry, I’d be writing my congressmen every day to make that happen.
Agreed.

Ironically, I'm pretty much anti-immigration and have no problem with putting a "we are full" sign on the statue of liberty. That said, wasting money on a cure for Trumps Tenis isn't efficient and won't work. We need to deal with overstays and revamp our entire system so that it's efficient and fair.

Taking private sensitive land from owners and destroying ecologically important zones in order to build a wall in the desert is not only a bad investment, but the worst kind of optics. Of course, it's racist in nature so it plays to Trump's base of terrified little racists.
 

MLU

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Sooo... Anyone want to bet how long the shutdown lasts this time? It took sick calls and canceled flights to push people to action last time. I bet those guys don't wait 30 days before getting sick this time. I also bet the sickness spreads further than NY and DC centers.
 

travelingsaintsfan

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As everyone knows I am all for either the wall or other methods of securing the border. BUT I am totally against holding the country hostage to get these.

Both parties need to lock themselves inside until a budget is agreed to.
 

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Sooo... Anyone want to bet how long the shutdown lasts this time? It took sick calls and canceled flights to push people to action last time. I bet those guys don't wait 30 days before getting sick this time. I also bet the sickness spreads further than NY and DC centers.
Hopefully the whole lot of people who will be effected walk out immediately
 

WhoDatPhan78

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As everyone knows I am all for either the wall or other methods of securing the border. BUT I am totally against holding the country hostage to get these.
I'm for a wall where necessary and other means everywhere else to improve border security. I'm pretty sure almost every Democrat and Republican feel the same way. They are fighting because the President wants the wall he promised, and half of the Congress is submissive to the President's base because even though it is less than 1/3 of the country, it is 2/3 of their own base.

Drones need to be the main type of "wall".
 

insidejob

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Hopefully the whole lot of people who will be effected walk out immediately
I think the ATC's basically bringing an end to the shut down has given the game plan to the rest of the "essential" workers who have to show up while not getting paid. Just all call in sick, the country grinds to a halt until Trump reopens the government. I just wonder how long he'd actually keep the govt. closed while flights are grounded and commerce stops across the country. There'd be no hiding from the billionaires who are losing money hand over fist because they can't operate since their shipping routes (by air) no longer exist. Good thing I ordered the shirt I needed in the mail to come in hopefully today.
 
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superchuck500

superchuck500

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Sooo... Anyone want to bet how long the shutdown lasts this time? It took sick calls and canceled flights to push people to action last time. I bet those guys don't wait 30 days before getting sick this time. I also bet the sickness spreads further than NY and DC centers.
I really don't think it's going to shut-down. I don't think McConnell is going to allow it. They will pass another CR and Trump is losing interest. He's being diverted to the 2020 election.
 

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Lawmakers involved in the negotiations to prevent a second government shutdown say they are aiming to reach an agreement on Monday night.

Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), the top two members of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said a core group of four lawmakers including themselves and Reps. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) and Kay Granger (R-Texas) would reconvene at 8 p.m. with the aim of getting a deal to break the months-long stalemate.

"I think we both agree that we can wrap this up tonight, do it tonight, not go over until tomorrow," Leahy told reporters after a core group met for a second time on Monday night.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate...-reach-deal-on-monday-night-to-avert-shutdown
 

Brandon13

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Lawmakers said on Monday night that they had reached an agreement "in principle" to avoid a second partial government shutdown set to begin on Saturday.

“We’ve had a good evening. We’ve reached an agreement in principle between us on the Homeland Security and the other six bills,” Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) told reporters.

Shelby announced the deal alongside Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Reps. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) and Kay Granger (R-Texas)—the top members of the Senate and House Appropriations Committee.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/429525-lawmakers-reach-agreement-in-principle-to-avert-shutdown

And now we see if anyone (hmm..) screws it up.
 

dtc

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As everyone knows I am all for either the wall or other methods of securing the border. BUT I am totally against holding the country hostage to get these.

Both parties need to lock themselves inside until a budget is agreed to.
The Republican party can't pass the wall and didn't while it could have so it needs to move on or face the consequences of another shut down.
 

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