Halfway through the first mini-season (1 Viewer)

[st dude]

For whatever reason, in my mind I have always broken the Saints season into four four-game mini seasons. Going 4-0 is great, but hard to do in the NFL. If you go 3-1 in each mini season, you end up 12-4 and probably win the division and in some years get a bye game. You can go 2-2 in one mini season, but if you are 2-2 in all four you end up 8-8 and out of the playoffs except for the rare year 8-8 gets you in. If you go 1-3 in any mini season, you better win the other three. If you lose 4 in a row in any one mini season, the chances are that you are watching other teams play in January.

At 1-1 the Saints still have a chance to get to 3-1, and winning three of four games in the NFL is always an accomplishment. The problem is that we lost the worst type of home game you can, a division game. And our last two games in our first mini-season are on the road. On paper at the start of the season, we could hardly have had an easier start playing the Bucs and the Browns. Yes it hurts that Ingram was out, but the Bucs came in with a journeyman qb we made look like an all pro. Sure, Tampa is a better team than we thought, but this was an awful home loss, that cannot be sugar coated.

The next two games are against the Falcons and the Giants. We have to win one of these games to finish 2-2 in the first quarter season. Obviously Atlanta is the bigger game. Atlanta is a three point favorite, that seems about right to me. Beating them would not be seen as a big upset by anyone.

Injuries and suspensions provide no excuses. We are without Ingram, the Falcons without three key defensive starters. Its a winnable game if our defense can at least be an average NFL defense.

I am only slightly encouraged by the better defensive play against Cleveland. Tyrod Taylor would be in my bottom five NFL qbs. Cleveland is a poor offensive team. Matt Ryan is a top ten NFL qb and has had his share of big games against the Saints. That said, Brees is a top five NFL qb and Atlanta is a beatable team.

So if we end up 1-3 in the first mini season, we almost have to win the next three. A 2-2 start would be a bit of a disappointment, less so if one of the two wins was against Atlanta. 3-1 would be a very good start, with a rested Ingram coming back for the rest of the season.

When I looked at our schedule before the season started, I was thinking 3-1 was likely, with a loss in Atlanta probable. It did not even occur to me we would lose to the Bucs with Fitzpatrick at home.

Now we need to beat Atlanta to get a shot to get to 3-1. Like the Saints, Atlanta is a team with relative strengths and weaknesses. The biggest concern for Saints fans has to be that our defense might have regressed.

Its kind of early to talk about must wins, but one thing is clear. If we lose to Atlanta and fall to 1-2 in the league and 0-2 in our division, our margin for error is not great moving forward. Sunday is the biggest game of our first mini-season, made bigger by our opening game loss.

 

[Taker597]

Definitely feel a break out game with the team finally waking up

 

[dutar76]

The atl game would be big regardless, but you're right. We need to go into our Monday night game against the Redskins with a 3-1 record and into our bye week at 4-1. After the bye, our strength of schedule goes up.

 

[oodank]

My concern moving forward is the heavy reliance on CGM in the pass game. If the Falcons can figure a way to limit him, and they have some pieces in their 2ndary, saints still have a lot to prove with the 'others'. That coupled with missing Ingram to keep the chains moving.

 

[Domeination]

I really don't have any idea which team is going to show up against Atlanta: The defense that played them so well last year and almost completely stymied them, or the swiss cheese D that show up against Tampa all game and reappeared like Freddy Kreuger in the last two minutes of the Cleveland game after managing to play well for almost 4 quarters? And will we get the offense we saw against Tampa, or a facsimile of the stumble-bum offense we saw for the first three quarters of the Cleveland game? This year's Saints have yet to forge an identity and not much time to do it if they want to realize their post-season dreams. Let's hope they find their true identity--and that it is a champion's identity--on both sides of the ball this weekend.

 

[SaintRob39]

My concern moving forward is the heavy reliance on CGM in the pass game. If the Falcons can figure a way to limit him, and they have some pieces in their 2ndary, saints still have a lot to prove with the 'others'. That coupled with missing Ingram to keep the chains moving.

OK I must be stupid but what the heck is CGM

 

[Saint Taysom]

OK I must be stupid but what the heck is CGM

Can’t Guard Mike

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

remember last year when we have a very lackluster first 2 games and then met a division rival at their house?
i like what happened then

 

[Saint Taysom]

The atl game would be big regardless, but you're right. We need to go into our Monday night game against the Redskins with a 3-1 record and into our bye week at 4-1. After the bye, our strength of schedule goes up.

As we discussed in another thread, I believe the officiating crew will play a big role in determining the winner this weekend. Both teams will have to play aggressively vs the opponents #1 WR, and ticky-tack calls going in one team’s favor could be huge.

The Falcons “fans” have complained all offseason about how Lattimore “mugged” Julio last year and how that has to stop... etc...

The Falcons DBs, meanwhile, were being praised for being so physical and roughing up the Panthers WRs and getting away with it.

This will be the type of game where 1 or 2 calls could decide it.