Hillary wins Ohio, Rhode Island, leads in Texas (1 Viewer)

[LSSpam]

Wanted to get a discussion about the interesting primary left going.


I think we all expected her to win in Ohio, but it's looking like she's going to trounce Obama, and she might squeak out a win in Texas to boot. And then she can look ahead to a decidedly blue-collar state (like Ohio) in Pennsylvania.

No chance she concedes for the next 6 weeks, this one is probably going to convention.

 

[purvis_guy]

Hey, did you hear McCain won the Republican nomination?

 

[xpuma20x]

I think she'll need to win Texas and Penn by the same margin she looks to win Ohio to even come back though

 

[LSSpam]

I think she'll need to win Texas and Penn by the same margin she looks to win Ohio to even come back though

Well obviously she's not going to win Texas by that margin. But as it stands now, it looks like she's going to end tonight anywhere from 80 to 100 delegates behind Obama. She can pickup about 30 or so of those in Pennsylvania realistically, and there are still a lot of other blue-collar states out there (Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky). The key is how she does in the two big Southern states (North Carolina and Mississippi combine for 120 or so delegates) where she's fighting demographics.

Either way, having won Ohio by what will probably be a big margin and maybe winning Texas, she blunts Obama's momentum and builds some of her own. I haven't seen anyone do the math, but just glancing, I don't see how the DNC can't avoid a brokered convention if she hangs in there.

And you're really going to bet heavy against Hillary in an insider convention that hangs on Super-Delegates and with Florida/Michigan in her hip pocket?

This could be a remarkable comeback.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Go Hills(!) Man I hope she can pull out Texas... If not, I'll definitely blame myself since I didn't register in time to vote today.

 

[saints225]

Even if Clinton wins Texas tonight, which there's a good chance of her not doing considering only 14% of the Houston area vote has been counted so far, Clinton has to win every single remaining primary by 40 percentage points just to catch up to Obama in pledged delegates. Clinton is just hoping to keep this thing close enough to make enough back room deals to get the super delegates. If the super delegates give Clinton the nomination, I never want to hear a single democrat or Clinton supporter ever say another thing about Bush stealing the election.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Even if Clinton wins Texas tonight, which there's a good chance of her not doing considering only 14% of the Houston area vote has been counted so far, Clinton has to win every single remaining primary by 40 percentage points just to catch up to Obama in pledged delegates. Clinton is just hoping to keep this thing close enough to make enough back room deals to get the super delegates. If the super delegates give Clinton the nomination, I never want to hear a single democrat or Clinton supporter ever say another thing about Bush stealing the election.

Feeling a little cynical tonight??

 

[saints225]

Feeling a little cynical tonight??

I'm a democrat, but I don't think that's it's cynical to believe that the Clintons are motivated by their own interests.

 

[Severum]

Ohio should narrow a bit as Cuyahoga and Hamilton report and only very few Houston precincts are in. She needed to win OH and TX by 30 points to have a chance of finishing with more pledged delegates.

 

[LSSpam]

Even if Clinton wins Texas tonight, which there's a good chance of her not doing considering only 14% of the Houston area vote has been counted so far, Clinton has to win every single remaining primary by 40 percentage points just to catch up to Obama in pledged delegates. Clinton is just hoping to keep this thing close enough to make enough back room deals to get the super delegates. If the super delegates give Clinton the nomination, I never want to hear a single democrat or Clinton supporter ever say another thing about Bush stealing the election.

Your math is bad. It's just flat-out wrong. I don't know what blog you ripped that absurd (40 percentage points) from, but it's way, way off.

First of all, neither candidate is likely to top 1,600 delegates tonight. With only 599 left on the table and no winner-take-all primaries, there is virtually zero chance of ANY candidate reaching the necessary 2,035. This IS going to convention if Hillary so chooses.

But beyond that, if Hillary polls in the 60/40 range as you would expect her to do in places like Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, etc, that's 300 delegates largely going to her (the labyrinth Dem primary process makes it hard to guesstimate, but you're probably talking something like 180-120)

She's still behind but it's a razor thin margin. Less then Florida and Michigan, and enough that it can easily be swung by Super-delegates.

She's got an uphill battle but she's definitely in it.

 

[Severum]

Clinton is just hoping to keep this thing close enough to make enough back room deals to get the super delegates. If the super delegates give Clinton the nomination, I never want to hear a single democrat or Clinton supporter ever say another thing about Bush stealing the election.

The superdelegates know that would destroy the party and ensure a generation of Republican domination so there's almost no chance of it happening.

 

[nigel]

Her win in Ohio tonight brings Florida and Michigan back into play. That's bad news for Obama. I agree with LSSpam that this thing is probably going to the convention.

 

[Saintman2884]

Well people no one ever said this would not be entertaining? I think its the best kind of enjoyment money can buy or not buy it at all?

WE are seeing history and I kind of like it, every vote counts remember that truism everyone. This primary is proving just that. Best damn race you could ask for.

 

[saints225]

Her win in Ohio tonight brings Florida and Michigan back into play. That's bad news for Obama. I agree with LSSpam that this thing is probably going to the convention.

No way will the democratic party allow the delegates from those states to be seated. That's just as bad as the super delegates giving Hillary the nomination and thus disenfranchising most democrats. I will vote for McCain if either scenario plays out.

 

[saints225]

Your math is bad. It's just flat-out wrong. I don't know what blog you ripped that absurd (40 percentage points) from, but it's way, way off.

First of all, neither candidate is likely to top 1,600 delegates tonight. With only 599 left on the table and no winner-take-all primaries, there is virtually zero chance of ANY candidate reaching the necessary 2,035. This IS going to convention if Hillary so chooses.

But beyond that, if Hillary polls in the 60/40 range as you would expect her to do in places like Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, etc, that's 300 delegates largely going to her (the labyrinth Dem primary process makes it hard to guesstimate, but you're probably talking something like 180-120)

She's still behind but it's a razor thin margin. Less then Florida and Michigan, and enough that it can easily be swung by Super-delegates.

She's got an uphill battle but she's definitely in it.

You're correct, That was a typo - she needs to win every remaining primary by 20 percentage points (60/40). I don't see her winning every state by that margin.