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Last draft there was some really intense debate about how seriously we should take the mock drafts. A lot of people wrote that we draftniks relied far too heavily on 'name' players from big colleges - overrating them and underrating small school prospects or 'best-kept' secret types.
There were a lot of people here who really slated the media drafts, particularly the huge ones with 500+ players saying they could not be taken seriously - so I kept a record of the best-known of them all (ESPN's huge pre-draft prediction) and and analysed how closely their selections tallied with those of the NFL front office experts.
(And before anyone says anything I don't work for or even subscribe to ESPN - I just used their draft card as my primary source last year)
ESPN was almost spot on for identifying the top 50 players! When it was wrong it was normally the GMs who were wrong!
44 of the players ESPN said would go in the top 50, got picked that early. Of those six, three were taken in the next nine picks (51st, 53rd and 59th overall).
The other three were Marcus McCauley (picked 72nd) who played 16 games, made 63 tackles and defended eight passes; Trent Edwards (picked 92nd) who ended up as the starting QB for the Bills achieved a passer rating of above 70 and threw for more than 1600 yards; and Ray McDonald (picked 97th) who had only a bit-part role with the 49ers.
ESPN did almost as well picking the top 100 with a 82 per cent success rate - and again the guys who fell often played like top 100 picks.
Yep, 82 of ESPN's top 100 were taken that early. If you allow a 10 per cent error margin 87 per cent of ESPN's picks were drafted by pick 110.
At least seven players who 'fell' out of the top 100 definitely deserved to be there. They are:
Tanard Jackson, (picked 106) 16 games, 56 tackles, 2 ints and 13 Passes defended.
Aundrae Allison, (146) NFC's top regular kick returner with an avg of 28.7 yards, 1 TD.
Brandon Siler (240) 15 games, 25 tackles.
Stephen Nicholas (109) 13 games, 33 tackles 1 sack.
Fred Bennett (123) 13 games, 62 tackles, 3 ints 2 FF, 14 passes defended.
Mason Crosby (193) 31 of 39 Field goals, 3 successful 50+ kicks.
Brian Robison (102) 24 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 FF.
Other key facts:
Only 10 players taken in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft were NOT in ESPN's top 120 prospects.
Only 16 of the players ESPN predicted would be drafted in the first five rounds were not drafted at all.
Only six of ESPN's top 150 prospects were not drafted, five appear to have at least made a practice squad. Of these the best were Darius Walker who played the last four regular season games for the Texans and rushed for 264 yards at 4.6 yards a carry, and Tony Taylor who played 16 games with the Flacons and made 11 tackles.
Got a bad character and a great talent - don't worry the NFL doesn't really care.
ESPN identified 24 of the top 300 prospects as having 'character issues/concerns'. 17 were drafted, three in the first round, one in the second and two in the third.
NFL scouts didn't even care if the players were borderline talents. Four players rated between 250-300 were still drafted, and four who ESPN predicted would not be drafted also got picked (including one by our beloved Saints who made a big thing about character in the run up to the draft).
So basically when you get your hands on those big media draft guides the lesson seems to be - take them seriously, because if the NFL scouts aren't reading them - they're at least picking up the same information themselves.
The cream rose to the top - so unless you were a special teams fan day two was largely a waste of time.
Sorry no amazing revelations here - the best players of 2007 were almost all taken in the first two rounds.
Check out most of the all-rookie teams and the only 'late round' players you'll see making the grade in most of them will be:
1. Trent Edwards QB (round 3)
2. Brian Robison DE (round 4)
3. Clifton Ryan DT (round 5)
Special teamers are a little different of course so it's worth mentioning....
4. Daniel Sepulveda P (round 4)
5. Mason Crosby K (Round 6)
And finally...what the hell do the scouts know....
Marques Colston (round 7 2006); Pierre Thomas (undrafted free agent 2007).
After the debacle of 2007 maybe we should let the (presumably) low-level scout who found these two stunning sleepers take over the whole draft this April.
There were a lot of people here who really slated the media drafts, particularly the huge ones with 500+ players saying they could not be taken seriously - so I kept a record of the best-known of them all (ESPN's huge pre-draft prediction) and and analysed how closely their selections tallied with those of the NFL front office experts.
(And before anyone says anything I don't work for or even subscribe to ESPN - I just used their draft card as my primary source last year)
ESPN was almost spot on for identifying the top 50 players! When it was wrong it was normally the GMs who were wrong!
44 of the players ESPN said would go in the top 50, got picked that early. Of those six, three were taken in the next nine picks (51st, 53rd and 59th overall).
The other three were Marcus McCauley (picked 72nd) who played 16 games, made 63 tackles and defended eight passes; Trent Edwards (picked 92nd) who ended up as the starting QB for the Bills achieved a passer rating of above 70 and threw for more than 1600 yards; and Ray McDonald (picked 97th) who had only a bit-part role with the 49ers.
ESPN did almost as well picking the top 100 with a 82 per cent success rate - and again the guys who fell often played like top 100 picks.
Yep, 82 of ESPN's top 100 were taken that early. If you allow a 10 per cent error margin 87 per cent of ESPN's picks were drafted by pick 110.
At least seven players who 'fell' out of the top 100 definitely deserved to be there. They are:
Tanard Jackson, (picked 106) 16 games, 56 tackles, 2 ints and 13 Passes defended.
Aundrae Allison, (146) NFC's top regular kick returner with an avg of 28.7 yards, 1 TD.
Brandon Siler (240) 15 games, 25 tackles.
Stephen Nicholas (109) 13 games, 33 tackles 1 sack.
Fred Bennett (123) 13 games, 62 tackles, 3 ints 2 FF, 14 passes defended.
Mason Crosby (193) 31 of 39 Field goals, 3 successful 50+ kicks.
Brian Robison (102) 24 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 FF.
Other key facts:
Only 10 players taken in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft were NOT in ESPN's top 120 prospects.
Only 16 of the players ESPN predicted would be drafted in the first five rounds were not drafted at all.
Only six of ESPN's top 150 prospects were not drafted, five appear to have at least made a practice squad. Of these the best were Darius Walker who played the last four regular season games for the Texans and rushed for 264 yards at 4.6 yards a carry, and Tony Taylor who played 16 games with the Flacons and made 11 tackles.
Got a bad character and a great talent - don't worry the NFL doesn't really care.
ESPN identified 24 of the top 300 prospects as having 'character issues/concerns'. 17 were drafted, three in the first round, one in the second and two in the third.
NFL scouts didn't even care if the players were borderline talents. Four players rated between 250-300 were still drafted, and four who ESPN predicted would not be drafted also got picked (including one by our beloved Saints who made a big thing about character in the run up to the draft).
So basically when you get your hands on those big media draft guides the lesson seems to be - take them seriously, because if the NFL scouts aren't reading them - they're at least picking up the same information themselves.
The cream rose to the top - so unless you were a special teams fan day two was largely a waste of time.
Sorry no amazing revelations here - the best players of 2007 were almost all taken in the first two rounds.
Check out most of the all-rookie teams and the only 'late round' players you'll see making the grade in most of them will be:
1. Trent Edwards QB (round 3)
2. Brian Robison DE (round 4)
3. Clifton Ryan DT (round 5)
Special teamers are a little different of course so it's worth mentioning....
4. Daniel Sepulveda P (round 4)
5. Mason Crosby K (Round 6)
And finally...what the hell do the scouts know....
Marques Colston (round 7 2006); Pierre Thomas (undrafted free agent 2007).
After the debacle of 2007 maybe we should let the (presumably) low-level scout who found these two stunning sleepers take over the whole draft this April.
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