How much do prep ratings matter? Of The Top 100 picks in the 2007 NFL draft, 57 weren't four- or five-star commitments

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Dave

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"I'm not into three-star or four-star," Hawkins said. "It's a big formula. A lot of things go into whether a kid is successful."

Hawkins is so leery of the rating systems he did some homework to show how unscientific they are. According to Hawkins, of the top 100 picks in the 2007 NFL draft, 57 weren't four- or five-star commitments.

Many of those judged to be lesser lights by the recruiting websites landed with non-BCS conferences. But several of those players have gone on to bigger and better things in the NFL.

How many? According to Hawkins, 25 players from the Packers' roster played for non-BCS schools. Not only that, 19 players from the Patriots' roster went to non-BCS schools.
http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_8164751
 
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I never got the point of prep ratings. These are 16, 17, 18 year old kids. Their physical and mental makeup will alter DRASTICALLY before they can enter the draft. Guys lose their love of the game, get caught up with different scenes, get lazy, just grow outside of prototypical football shape. They're just kids and kids change as they grow up.
 

kevison

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I don't understand the rating system at all. If Hester was a 2-star, the entire system is messed up. I would take a guy like that all day long over a higher rated player--he's just a winner.

With that said, what does Hawkins know anyway? He'll be fired in a couple of years after the next CU scandal.
 

slowchild25

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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/02/04/sec.recruiting/index.html

"That's what the numbers bore out, anyway, when I tabulated Rivals.com's average recruiting-class rankings for every school in each of the six BCS conferences over the past five years, 2003-07. (If by chance you're one of those who believe recruiting rankings are a bunch of bunk, it might interest you to learn that the four teams with the best combined class rankings over the past five years were USC, Florida, LSU and Georgia. The Gators won the 2006 national championship and the Tigers, Bulldogs and Trojans finished 1-2-3 in last season's final AP poll.)"
 

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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/02/04/sec.recruiting/index.html

"That's what the numbers bore out, anyway, when I tabulated Rivals.com's average recruiting-class rankings for every school in each of the six BCS conferences over the past five years, 2003-07. (If by chance you're one of those who believe recruiting rankings are a bunch of bunk, it might interest you to learn that the four teams with the best combined class rankings over the past five years were USC, Florida, LSU and Georgia. The Gators won the 2006 national championship and the Tigers, Bulldogs and Trojans finished 1-2-3 in last season's final AP poll.)"
And if you take each team's average star rating per player from 2003-2007 the top 4 teams are USC, Florida, Texas, and LSU. The only teams to win National Championships in that timespan.
 

Farb

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stats. You have many-many more lower star prep players. The fact that almost half of the top 100 coming out in the NFL draft were 4 or 5 star prep player is actually amazing.
 
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Recruiting - What Happened To the 5-Star Prospects?

The 5-Star Prospects From 2004


9. WR Early Doucet, LSU – An injury last year and the program’s depth at the position between 2004 and 2006 kept Doucet from really teeing off statistically, and contending for national awards. However, those in the know recognize that he has matured into one of the nation’s most polished receivers, a fluid athlete that runs great routes and can deliver key blocks. Doucet finished with 160 career catches, modest in some circles, yet 20 went for touchdowns, and his best days lie ahead in a league that’s going to tap all of his athletic ability.
Revised Rating: [FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]<NOBR>
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21. DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU – The prototype for NFL tackles, Dorsey was a part of a deep rotation in Baton Rouge his first two seasons before emerging as an unblockable All-American as a junior and a senior. Last year, despite playing much of the year with a knee injury, he finished ninth in the Heisman voting, while becoming the first player ever to win the Lombardi, Nagurski, Lott, and Outland awards in the same year. A sure-fire first round pick in April’s draft, he could go as high as No. 1 overall.
Revised Rating: [FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]<NOBR>
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[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]<NOBR>For the rest of the 30 listed in the article:</NOBR>[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]<NOBR>http://cfn.scout.com/2/726341.html</NOBR>[/FONT]
 

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