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Kirk Cousins in Washington is probably your best comparator for how these things can play out. The quality of player may be different, but the ability of stubborn ownership to double down and keep the player without a long term deal is directly comparable.It won't go that far. Watson can apply pressure to drive down the price, poisoning the Texans as a destination for other free agents. I'm not saying that it will happen, but it's not that cut and dry. There are other dynamics that can work against them if Watson wants out bad enough.
Now, people might say that also poisons Watson. I disagree. Other teams know what's up.
I think people are hoping Watson can force a way out to fill our perceived future need. History seems to suggest it will go otherwise.