Hurricane Season 2021 (1 Viewer)

[gboudx]

GFS has one at the very end of the model run, but at that time frame, the GFS isn't reliable either.

But it's saying there's a chance.

Yeah the 15-16 day GFS can be entertaining. I've seen numerous Cat 5 hurricanes in the gulf, and "Day After Tomorrow"-type snow storms in the winter.

 

[efil4stnias]

From the NHC for the southwest Caribbean:



The CMC(Christian Mcaffery) model is not accurate

Fixt lol

 

[Sailorsaint]

 

[superchuck500]

No, we can't have Major Hurricane Larry. That's just ridiculous.

 

[Complex Kid]

No, we can't have Major Hurricane Larry. That's just ridiculous.

 

[bonnjer]

It's that time of year when Africa turns into a Star Wars blaster and starts firing them out. Pew pew pew

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

 

[efil4stnias]

No, we can't have Major Hurricane Larry. That's just ridiculous.

Not if he comes ashore with this...Lotta poppin and lockin will be goin on.

 

[superchuck500]

forkin Larry

 

[Complex Kid]

forkin Larry

 

[gboudx]

Possible Bay of Campeche from Jeff Lindner:

A weak area of low pressure that developed over the SW Caribbean Sea late this week has moved inland over central America in the last 24 hours. Development is not likely as the system remains over the land areas of central America.

By early next week the system is expected to drift into the Bay of Campeche and possibly track toward the NW or N. Global model guidance is mixed on if any sort of surface low pressure will develop, although overnight guidance has suggested a bit of a better chance of some degree over development over the southern or southwestern Gulf by the early part of next week. A trough of low pressure that is expected to develop along the US east coast will likely keep mid level ridging anchored over the western US which potentially allows a door for anything in the southern Gulf to move northward next week. Upper level winds initially look unfavorable for development with westerly shear and it is unclear how far north this shear may extend.

Regardless of development, a large pool of tropical moisture will likely move into the southern Gulf this weekend and then begin to move northward mid to late next week.

NHC currently gives 91L a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days once the system reaches the Bay of Campeche.

 

[Bill]

Possible Bay of Campeche from Jeff Lindner:

It ain't over... until it gets everybody.

 

[Bill]

Possible Bay of Campeche from Jeff Lindner:

I know this storm may get it's own thread eventually, but this is what we are looking at so far with Invest 91L:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_tracks_latest.png

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

 

[bclemms]

I know this storm may get it's own thread eventually, but this is what we are looking at so far with Invest 91L:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_tracks_latest.png

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

Both the Euro and GFS are developing into weak storms. Steering currents are much weaker for this one than Ida so it's really anyone's guess what this storm will do in either track or intensity at this point. Just hope this isn't a Sally situation.

 

[gboudx]

Both the Euro and GFS are developing into weak storms. Steering currents are much weaker for this one than Ida so it's really anyone's guess what this storm will do in either track or intensity at this point. Just hope this isn't a Sally situation.

Off-topic. I watched most of your Grand Isle drone video. Did you drive down there? I'm sure you've seen a lot of hurricane destruction in your job, including Lake Charles last year. How does what you've seen from Ida compare with other storms?

 

[superchuck500]

Just hope this isn't a Sally situation.

that girl