Hurricane Season 2021 (1 Viewer)

faceman

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This is going to be a repeat of last year, isn't it? Multiple cones zeroing in on Louisiana. Ugh.
We don't know yet, but it isn't a good sign. June is usually not a month that spawns tropical systems.
 

Dan in Lafayette

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We're already up to C in June. I'm def that woman in the second meme. I like the years we're not watching The Weather Channel til August.

We don't know yet, but it isn't a good sign. June is usually not a month that spawns tropical systems.

If I recall correctly, Cristobal came ashore last year in the first week of June. But every hurricane season is different.
 

Madmarsha

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If I recall correctly, Cristobal came ashore last year in the first week of June. But every hurricane season is different.
Well, we know we burned through 'em last year. I can't wait to see the rain totals for the month.
 

faceman

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If I recall correctly, Cristobal came ashore last year in the first week of June. But every hurricane season is different.
True. Last year and so far this year have been anomalies. In an average season a storm forms in June once every two years.

One of the pro mets on Storm 2k said if the set up that allowed Claudette to form is present in late August to mid September, the northern gulf would have been dealing with a monster.
 

Madmarsha

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One of the pro mets on Storm 2k said if the set up that allowed Claudette to form is present in late August to mid September, the northern gulf would have been dealing with a monster.
Many years ago, we had a B storm in June (hardly any to-do about the A storm) and I remember thinking, Uh-oh. But that ended up being kind of the only hullabaloo that year. I hope this is a year for that.
 

faceman

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Many years ago, we had a B storm in June (hardly any to-do about the A storm) and I remember thinking, Uh-oh. But that ended up being kind of the only hullabaloo that year. I hope this is a year for that.
You and I both
 

efil4stnias

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Well, we know we burned through 'em last year. I can't wait to see the rain totals for the month.

try for year to date. We are pushing the rainiest season on record.

we have had over 35 inches of rain for March, April and May and i think that is no 1 or 2 all time - and that number was as of mid may iirc.

we have to be over that for the whole of May and the record was 36 inches of rain.
 

bclemms

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True. Last year and so far this year have been anomalies. In an average season a storm forms in June once every two years.

One of the pro mets on Storm 2k said if the set up that allowed Claudette to form is present in late August to mid September, the northern gulf would have been dealing with a monster.
Yes and no. The conditions would have been there for a large storm but not necessarily a strong storm given the shear. What he was probably referring to and the bigger concern I have this year than last is the huge and near constant moisture content that has been in the Southern Caribbean, Eastern Mx and Central America. Once SST's warm, the potential for the really enormous type storms we saw in 2005 will be in play but you would still need ideal conditions to get that really high end storm. It's something we haven't seen since then and those are the ones that can create massive and widespread surge events. Storms like Laura, Harvey, Sally and Zeta have all been strong but relatively compact. We haven't seen the Katrina, Rita, Ike and Ivan type storms and thank god for that.
 

faceman

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Yes and no. The conditions would have been there for a large storm but not necessarily a strong storm given the shear. What he was probably referring to and the bigger concern I have this year than last is the huge and near constant moisture content that has been in the Southern Caribbean, Eastern Mx and Central America. Once SST's warm, the potential for the really enormous type storms we saw in 2005 will be in play but you would still need ideal conditions to get that really high end storm. It's something we haven't seen since then and those are the ones that can create massive and widespread surge events. Storms like Laura, Harvey, Sally and Zeta have all been strong but relatively compact. We haven't seen the Katrina, Rita, Ike and Ivan type storms and thank god for that.
That shear is usually not present in the peak of the season. That's what the met was referring to
 

bclemms

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That shear is usually not present in the peak of the season. That's what the met was referring to
Got ya. Yeah, place August SST's and low shear with moisture content currently in the Eastern Tropics and Claudette could have been a massive system.
 

faceman

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Another concerning factor. Low pressure waves are rolling off the coast of Africa and holding together. That's usually something you don't see till late July and August. It's still too early for them to threaten the U.S. coast, but this bears watching
 

Madmarsha

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try for year to date. We are pushing the rainiest season on record.

we have had over 35 inches of rain for March, April and May and i think that is no 1 or 2 all time - and that number was as of mid may iirc.

we have to be over that for the whole of May and the record was 36 inches of rain.
Last I had heard for May was "only" like top 5 (was May 1995 and that year's flood one of the worst?). But I haven't heard the official updated for May. But I wouldn't be surprised if we're at new records for both months. At least it sure seems like it.

Now, here's a thing. My only experience with hurricanes prior to moving down here was Agnes in '72. I never even thought about which month it was being an "A" storm.

 
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faceman

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Another concerning factor. Low pressure waves are rolling off the coast of Africa and holding together. That's usually something you don't see till late July and August. It's still too early for them to threaten the U.S. coast, but this bears watching
 

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