Hurricane Season 2021 (1 Viewer)

efil4stnias

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The GFS alone has a major spread. The question will be how strong/organized is it around Hispaniola. It will either curve north ish, or keep drifting NW. The nominal (black line) is really between what seems to be a bimodal solution. (Maybe even tri modal)

Honestly, that means the track isn't great past the greater Antilles.

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@#$@# every track to the left.
 

bclemms

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Don't know about this storm, but I think we're entering a new era of climate dynamics - past performance may not be indicative of future results.
While I do agree we are entering a new era of climate dynamics, I don't think it impacts hurricane seasons all that much. Where I do think we see climate change impacts on storms is more stalled storms creating widespread flooding events and perhaps s slight increase in storm strength at landfall. Then we will likely see more June and November storms than in the past with most of them being very low impact (at least in the next decade or two).

What we saw last year and will almost certainly see this season is ideal enso conditions. Both seasons are being heavily influenced by La Nina patterns very favorable to tropical formation. I'm willing to bet after this Nina cycle we start moving back towards a longer period El Nino pattern and suddenly see a really slow period in the tropics. It's not unusual to have several busy seasons in a row followed by a "drought" of hurricanes. The last time climate change was being blamed for an extraordinarily busy couple of years (04-05) we went on the longest period in recorded history without a hurricane landfall.

Hurricanes and tornadoes are really tough to directly attribute to climate change. I do think they are both being influenced but not the way most people want to think. I think tornado season is being extended in the south and decreased in the central plains due to warming in the winter months in the south and the break down of upper level winds starting in late May in the plains. Probably not going to see a big impact on tornado numbers and may even see a decrease in number of violent tornadoes but they are going to be increasingly likely to hit in areas that are more populated. Hurricanes we are likely to see more stalled systems that linger for days, creating more catastrophic flooding, an extension of the season and a much larger surge impact due to rising seas. There is a lot of research out there suggesting that rapid intensification is more likely but I question a lot of it because there is likely quite a bit of technology bias that isn't being accounted for such as satellites and aircrafts sampling storms. It could very well be that we are just now able to see it in the last couple of decades. I'm not saying it isn't a correlation to climate change because if the water is warmer then the conditions just need to be favorable in the upper levels for rapid intensification to occur but we are simply lacking the capable research to really understand the impacts at this point.
 
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Doug B

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Don't know about this storm, but I think we're entering a new era of climate dynamics - past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Something else, too -- 30-35 years ago, Bob Breck might have seen where Elda is now and maybe mentioned it for a few seconds on his weathercast. He'd wave it away by saying "But that's not something for New Orleans to worry about right now."

These days ... they actually model these things 10 days out (or even longer?). Some people treat some of those 240-hour models as super-accurate certainties, and thus some people get worked up well in advance.

Sometimes, ignorance IS bliss.
 

faceman

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Something else, too -- 30-35 years ago, Bob Breck might have seen where Elda is now and maybe mentioned it for a few seconds on his weathercast. He'd wave it away by saying "But that's not something for New Orleans to worry about right now."

These days ... they actually model these things 10 days out (or even longer?). Some people treat some of those 240-hour models as super-accurate certainties, and thus some people get worked up well in advance.

Sometimes, ignorance IS bliss.
Models are far more accurate now though. I agree about the spread of 10 days, but if you are in the 5 day cone,it's a wise idea to start making preparations. The 72 hour cone pretty much nails landfall within a few miles.
 

faceman

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Shear is also very low in the Carribean. That's unusual for this time of year. Looks like it's trying to stack. We'll know later this afternoon
 

Saint_Ward

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Something else, too -- 30-35 years ago, Bob Breck might have seen where Elda is now and maybe mentioned it for a few seconds on his weathercast. He'd wave it away by saying "But that's not something for New Orleans to worry about right now."

These days ... they actually model these things 10 days out (or even longer?). Some people treat some of those 240-hour models as super-accurate certainties, and thus some people get worked up well in advance.

Sometimes, ignorance IS bliss.
That's why Levi has the warning on his graphics. It's also why I posted the GFS solution. It shows after a few days how widely it diverges. So, don't worry about it. Just have a mental note to check back in on Saturday.

But, if you needed groceries soon anyway, might as well do it early.
 

faceman

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That's why Levi has the warning on his graphics. It's also why I posted the GFS solution. It shows after a few days how widely it diverges. So, don't worry about it. Just have a mental note to check back in on Saturday.

But, if you needed groceries soon anyway, might as well do it early.
Some good news. It's racing west at 28mph. That type of speed usually means the LLC is outracing the convection. The bad news is it could still slow down. You are spot on about food and supplies. If you live in a hurricane prone area it's best to stock up early in the season. Canned goods are recommended. They have a long expiration date unlike perishables like milk and fresh meats.
 
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Saint_Ward

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NHC update.



Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

The structure of Elsa has changed little since the last advisory,
with the low-level center partly exposed to the northwest of the
somewhat-ragged primary convective band. Various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have changed little during
the last 6 h, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/25. There is little change to the
track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A rapid
west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 48 h or so as Elsa
is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. After
that time, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as
the ECWMF and the ECMWF ensembles forecast a turn toward the north
while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a continued west-
northwestward to northwestward motion. In addition, the GFS
ensemble members are spread from a continued west-northwestward
motion toward the Yucatan Peninsula on one side to a northward
motion east of the northern Bahamas on the other. The latter part
of the new NHC forecast track will still lean more toward the
deterministic GFS/UKMET solutions, but the confidence remains low.
The new official forecast track again has only minor adjustments
from the previous forecast.

The intensity forecast and its high uncertainty are also little
changed from the last advisory. Some strengthening is expected
during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an
environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind
shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, as mentioned
earlier, the fast forward motion could result in the upper and lower
parts of the storm being unable to stay together, and this could
limit strengthening. The latter part of the intensity forecast also
has the issues of possible land interaction and disagreements among
the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be,
although the latest model runs trended toward less favorable
conditions north of about 22N. This uncertainty is highlighted by
the UKMET forecasting Elsa to weaken to a trough near western Cuba
while the GFS forecasts it to be a hurricane in the same area and
time. Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues
to be on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are
possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer
rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola
by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early
next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.5N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.1N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.3N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Madmarsha

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Elsa? Where have I been?


 

faceman

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Folks in Fla. need to start paying heavy attention. Damn, it's going to be a long year. It's july 2 and we are seeing a hurricane in the MDR
 

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Mr. Blue Sky

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Planning to drive from Nashville to NOLA on Tues.. Thoughts? I’m just wondering if i might have some crappy weather due to the ‘outer bands’ or whatever, when I’m going thru AL and MS.. wondering if i might should push the trip back a few days.
 

Madmarsha

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Planning to drive from Nashville to NOLA on Tues.. Thoughts? I’m just wondering if i might have some crappy weather due to the ‘outer bands’ or whatever, when I’m going thru AL and MS.. wondering if i might should push the trip back a few days.
The way things are going, I'm not sure pushing it will accomplish what you want. Roll of the dice.
 

faceman

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Planning to drive from Nashville to NOLA on Tues.. Thoughts? I’m just wondering if i might have some crappy weather due to the ‘outer bands’ or whatever, when I’m going thru AL and MS.. wondering if i might should push the trip back a few days.
Right now I'd keep those plans. Right now it appears we'll be west of the storm and on the good side. Keep your eye on it though. We'll know a lot more come Tuesday.
 

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