I dont get the BPA (1 Viewer)

SaintSausagehead

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I hate how all the nfl guru scouts that are umemployed by nfl teams build all these mock drafts say this guy is a reach this guy isnt worthy of the number 10 pick in our case.I dont get it nobody knows for sure how good anyone will be Colston prime example if everyone knew what we know now would he be a reach in the 1st or 2rd round? I say draft what you know you need if its a miss its a miss doing nothing about it does not help either so take a shot.
 

dtc

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I get what your saying but it is all about calculated risks. It is a business
You're right, but I have to agree with the OP's premise. In calculating your risk, isn't it more of a risk to take a WR#1 instead of D when you know you've got suspect DTs, LBs and CBs and also know that you have a stable of good WRs.

This year, we failed because our D underperformed. Our #1 pick sat and EVERY D player chosen had a greater positive impact than ours. So, perhaps RM will be great and it will prove to have been a good pick. But clearly there were others who might not have been BPA that would have gotten us another couple wins and a shot in the playoffs while MeachUm sat on the sidelines in street clothes.
 

Infoman

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It's more of a risk to reach for a position of need rather than to take the best player available on the board when it's your turn to pick (at least in the 1st round).... this has been proven time and time again. It becomes less important to take the BPA once you get into the later rounds though.
 

DownWithDisease

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It's more of a risk to reach for a position of need rather than to take the best player available on the board when it's your turn to pick (at least in the 1st round).... this has been proven time and time again. It becomes less important to take the BPA once you get into the later rounds though.

Agreed.

1st round (especially top 10) you have to go BPA.
 

Nevimeister

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I hate how all the nfl guru scouts that are umemployed by nfl teams build all these mock drafts say this guy is a reach this guy isnt worthy of the number 10 pick in our case.I dont get it nobody knows for sure how good anyone will be Colston prime example if everyone knew what we know now would he be a reach in the 1st or 2rd round? I say draft what you know you need if its a miss its a miss doing nothing about it does not help either so take a shot.
Donte Whitner was the so called "biggest reach" of the 2006 draft. He has vindicated Buffalo's faith in him and outperformed the safety taken one place ahead of him Michael Huff, who was supposedly a can't miss boa fide top 7-10 prospect. Other players who dropped in the draft such as Jimmy Williams and Winston Justice with so called "1st round talent" have proven no value at all. Both have made little to no impact (the latter giving up 6 sacks to Osi Umenyiora in one game). Ted Ginn Jr was the biggest reach of the 2007 draft, and was! It is no science
 

St. Widge

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It's less of a risk to take a guy you have rated highly, but might not be a position you need rather than taking a guy who is the best available at his position, but rated much lower by your scouts. You have to hire good scouts and personnel people and trust them. It also hurts your overall draft when you take a guy higher than he should go since you could have taken a better player at that spot or traded down to get more draft picks. Reaching results in your having highly paid players who don't preform and anchor your cap, i.e. Johnathan Sullivan. Taking BPA, and making sure you take players close to where you think other teams would gets you good players who make less money, i.e. Marques Colston, Jahri Evans. Sure, you could have taken Colston or Evans in the first or second round, but if you did that, you have to pay them more money and you would not have gotten Bush, Harper and Streif to go with them. You would have had Colston, Evans and a bunch of draft busts to go with them. Instead, by drafting BPA you get more quality players.

In short, drafting for need, regardless of the value or ranking of a player, is what Mike Ditka did. The result was that he took average to bad players like Danny Weurfel, Troy Davis, Rob Kelley and Jared Tomich way too high and passed on players at other positions that would have been really good. Worse, he paid those guys too much money and that did not allow us to bring in free agents to make up for those guys not being great players.

Finally, there is no reason to ever reach for a player. If the guy you really want is not rated near where you pick then you trade down and get more picks. There is no reason not too. You trust your scouts to do their job and move around as appropriate. Sometimes it means a trade down, sometimes it means a trade up.
 

MLU

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I hate how all the nfl guru scouts that are umemployed by nfl teams build all these mock drafts say this guy is a reach this guy isnt worthy of the number 10 pick in our case.I dont get it nobody knows for sure how good anyone will be Colston prime example if everyone knew what we know now would he be a reach in the 1st or 2rd round? I say draft what you know you need if its a miss its a miss doing nothing about it does not help either so take a shot.
The first round of the draft is a once a year opportunity to add one special player to your roster of 53.

You don't draft a guy who plays a position of need unless he's you're highest rated player there. You can always get a player of need in the next six rounds. Chances are that you'll find a special player in the next six rounds are pretty slim.
 

chad_moore

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I've always been a fan of taking BPA no matter what side of the ball they play on. It's worked out very well in the past...Duece, Smith, Reggie. Even though we had a starter in the current position, its allowed the team to work the salary cap and make moves we would have been otherwise hindered with.

However, I must add a caveat to the Saints team for this upcoming draft. We have a very lopsided team, where our offense is leaps and bounds above our defense. I think going for BPA on the defensive side of the ball is a MUST in the first two rounds. No matter what position we select at on Defense, it's as close to a sure thing as it's gonna get this year. Even if we take a DE, they are more than likely to see significant playing time. It's not a guarantee, but the odds are HIGHLY likely they will be able to make an impact.

If BPA is on offense, we need to figure out a way to move down and grab another pick. It's easier when you're selecting in the later part of the rounds, but at 10, we've got to hope that a few offensive players work their way up to becoming a top 10 pick. Hopefully, a WR or a QB makes a big splash at the Senior bowl and combine. This will give us someone that was targeted to go in the top 8 to potentially fall to us. If that doesn't happen and things go as everyone currently is talking....which is unlikely with so much time before the draft....then it won't really be a value pick for us. This draft is deep at LB and what I would consider second tier DT and DB. I think you're going to see us selecting atleast two of the three in the first three rounds (DB, LB, and DT).

BPA has a lot to do with how a team does in FA, also. You select your needs in FA and then you are given the luxury of BPA in the draft. Without that, you will be selecting on need and I believe the pressure and scrunity for that draft pick to succeed becomes too much.
 

CoolBrees1

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So...if Ellis out of USC and McFadden out of Arkansas fell to the 10th spot and it was our turn to pick...the best player available on the board would be McFadden...so we should go for another RB rather than a DT?
 

Shockmo

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It's ok if you don't get the BPA. The Saints seldom do either.
 

LSSpam

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I hate how all the nfl guru scouts that are umemployed by nfl teams build all these mock drafts say this guy is a reach this guy isnt worthy of the number 10 pick in our case.I dont get it nobody knows for sure how good anyone will be Colston prime example if everyone knew what we know now would he be a reach in the 1st or 2rd round? I say draft what you know you need if its a miss its a miss doing nothing about it does not help either so take a shot.
The rate of success for a draft pick is proportional to when he's selected.

In other words, 1st round picks, on average, produce significantly more then 7th round picks. No one "knows for sure", and from an individual pick standpoint it is a bit of a crapshoot, but over time success is skewed towards the higher draft picks.
 

MLU

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So...if Ellis out of USC and McFadden out of Arkansas fell to the 10th spot and it was our turn to pick...the best player available on the board would be McFadden...so we should go for another RB rather than a DT?
Unless someone is willing to give us more picks to move into our spot, absolutely...
 

Infoman

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Unless someone is willing to give us more picks to move into our spot, absolutely...
Exactly, you'd think that if we have learned anything from the past 2 seasons.... it'd be that you can never have enough good RBs... I mean, we ended up starting a 3rd string special teamer and undrafted rookie free agent at RB to end the season this past year.
 

St. Widge

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So...if Ellis out of USC and McFadden out of Arkansas fell to the 10th spot and it was our turn to pick...the best player available on the board would be McFadden...so we should go for another RB rather than a DT?

That really depends on how our personnel people rank these two players. They might rank Ellis above McFadden or they might rank them close. If they are close, then it probably makes sense to take a guy at the "need" position, but if they rank McFadden way above Ellis, you have to take McFadden. What good would it do to draft a player at a position of need if he doesn't end up being a good player? See, i.e Johnathan Sullivan.
 
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SaintSausagehead

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Thanks guy yall all make very good points i just see things like what happened in green bay they have a hihg pick that will probably be a FA. before Farve turns over the job to him that was a wasted pick for them they have been needing a WR never really drafted a big name instead they got a QB still holding a clip board they did the same with Matt that is in seattle now.
 

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