NFL "If The Season Ended Today..." - WEEK 1 (1 Viewer)

Bill

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Since the league has decided to add an extra playoff team from each conference to the 2020-21 postseason (14 teams in all), I thought it would be interesting to see from week to week how the playoff 'chips' will fall and which two teams will be holding that coveted #1 Seed in order to get the only Byes on the playoff schedule. Yes it's ridiculous and foolish to start looking at the playoffs so far in advance (Coach Mora Sr. please forgive me), but what else are we going to do during these long days of pandemic isolation??? I'm planning to update this list after each week of games are concluded. Hopefully we'll get some added excitement (if not a few chuckles) as we watch the deck shuffle all season long. :grin:

In this new system, only the #1 seeds in each conference get a Bye. The first playoff week plays out this way: #2 hosts #7; #3 hosts #6; #4 hosts #5. Each successive week the lowest seed travels to the highest seed just as before.

***WEEK 1 - NFC Playoff Standings***
#1 Bye - Arizona Cardinals
#2- New Orleans Saints
#3- Washington Football Team
#4- Green Bay Packers
#5- Los Angeles Rams
#6- Seattle Seahawks
#7- Chicago Bears

***WEEK 1 - AFC Playoff Standings***
#1 Bye - Buffalo Bills
#2- Baltimore Ravens
#3- Kansas City Chiefs
#4- Jacksonville Jaguars
#5- San Diego Chargers
#6- New England Patriots
#7- Las Vegas Raiders

This crazy list begs the question: How many weeks of games have to be played before the list becomes official in the event the remainder of the regular season needs to be cancelled? :unsure: Welcome to the 2020 NFL football season. :covri:

Edit: After further review... it seems that there isn't enough stats and data for the above seeding to be completely accurate. In fact several sports websites are applying the tiebreaker rules differently and showing the list in a slightly different order. It will likely take another week of stats to the tiebreaker rules to be correctly applied in order to determine the correct seeding. So stay tuned for Week 2 to get the updated list.
 
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onanygivensunday

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With so many teams being 1-0 at this time, what criteria are you using to seed one team above another?

For example, in the NFCN both the Bears and the Packers are 1-0 and both are 1-0 in their division. Why are the Packers the #4 seed and the Bears are the #7 seed? And why are the Cardinals the #1 seed?
 
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Bill

Bill

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With so many teams being 1-0 at this time, what criteria are you using to seed one team above another?

For example, in the NFCN both the Bears and the Packers are 1-0 and both are 1-0 in their division. Why are the Packers the #4 seed and the Bears are the #7 seed? And why are the Cardinals the #1 seed?
There are official tiebreaker formulas that work even when teams have the same Win/Loss record.
These formulas are being applied in these lists.
 

onanygivensunday

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There are official tiebreaker formulas that work even when teams have the same Win/Loss record.
These formulas are being applied in these lists.
I understand that... and I've reviewed the tie-breaking rules.

Based on my understanding, the #1 seed in the NFC is the Saints. They are 1-0 overall, 1-0 in their division and they have the highest point differential in their conference (+11).

The Cardinals similarly are 1-0 overall, 1-0 in their division but their point differential is only +4. So kindly explain how you have them as the #1 seed.

TIA.
 
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Bill

Bill

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I understand that... and I've reviewed the tie-breaking rules.

Based on my understanding, the #1 seed in the NFC is the Saints. They are 1-0 overall, 1-0 in their division and they have the highest point differential in their conference (+11).

The Cardinals similarly are 1-0 overall, 1-0 in their division but their point differential is only +4. So kindly explain how you have them as the #1 seed.

TIA.
Strength of Schedule comes into play even before the point differential. Two other teams in their division (which they will be playing twice each) are also undefeated.
Here is one of several playoff status websites that have all the formulas built in to the outcomes of the games each week.
 
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I believe that the NFC should be...

1. Saints
2. Washington
3. Packers
4. Cardinals
5. Bears
6. Seahawks
7. Rams
To confirm, you can see that at the moment the Cardinals have seven games remaining on their schedule against teams with a winning record. The Saints have only five.

But before worrying about getting beat out by Arizona, please try to keep in mind that there is nothing written in stone about any of these teams currently on the list. No doubt the names will change often throughout the season. Things will get MUCH clearer as the season progresses.
 

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If the premise is "if the season ended today" due to Covid or whatever, would strength of schedule come into play since those games never get played?
 
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Bill

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If the premise is "if the season ended today" due to Covid or whatever, would strength of schedule come into play since those games never get played?
I'm not sure, but that's what is being implied in these playoff generators.
As I said, after Week 1 there is really no basis at all for establishing the above listed teams as the ones to beat for the playoffs. A few more weeks of games will start to make the picture a lot clearer once the additional data can be applied to the tiebreaker rules. I just figured it would be fun to watch from week to week which teams are keeping themselves in the hunt. It will also help me to write a more insightful KWTPF column by watching who is starting to get the upper hand in our conference.

This is the kind of weird stuff that happens when you have more time on your hands than you ever wished to have in your life. :covri:
 

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Strength of Schedule comes into play even before the point differential. Two other teams in their division (which they will be playing twice each) are also undefeated.
Here is one of several playoff status websites that have all the formulas built in to the outcomes of the games each week.

Let me guess - they built in bias AGAINST the Saints...

Damn you, Roger!!!!!!
 

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