If We Were to Trade Down... (1 Viewer)

[Boondock]

Who would be the most likely candidate to trade out with us if we decided to trade down on draft day?

 

[LSSpam]

Someone would need a compelling reason to trade up to our spot specifically first

 

[scott88]

I could see Ravens trading up for Manti Te'o over Chicago

 

[Boondock]

The scenario I have in my head is to trade down (if we get a partner), draft Jesse Williams and recoup a 2nd round pick. Because if we are going to reconstruct this defense into a formidable 3-4 we're going to need as many picks as possible. My 2nd round pick would preferably be, Jonathan Cyprien.

So, in my scenario I would have us picking up a versatile 3-4 lineman in Jesse Williams and an aggressive hard hitting SS in Jonathan Cyprien that is necessary for Ryan's likely 3-4/4-6 hybrid defense. Not to mention he would be a good replacement for Harper.

 

[SaintsNY]

I don't think teams would want to trade up for a 15th pick. I could see maybe a high 20's team, but we would have to get their first and 2nd in return.

 

[Boondock]

I don't think teams would want to trade up for a 15th pick. I could see maybe a high 20's team, but we would have to get their first and 2nd in return.

The Seahawks did it for Bruce Irvin last year. They wanted to jump in front of the Niners to make sure they couldn't draft him.

 

[whodatdb]

The Seahawks did it for Bruce Irvin last year. They wanted to jump in front of the Niners to make sure they couldn't draft him.

the Seahwks didn't trade up. That was their natural pick IIRC.

 

[whodatdb]

I think Rams, Vikings, Ravens and Texans may want to move up to the 15th spot. I could even see Cinci move up considering they have 2 2nd round picks. Maybe we could give them our 1st for their 1st and 2nd or their 2nd 2nd and 3rd. They really need a WR 2 and MLB.

 

[scott88]

I think Rams, Vikings, Ravens and Texans may want to move up to the 15th spot. I could even see Cinci move up considering they have 2 2nd round picks. Maybe we could give them our 1st for their 1st and 2nd or their 2nd 2nd and 3rd. They really need a WR 2 and MLB.

especially if Jarvis Jones drops to 15

 

[LSSpam]

But the question we should all ask ourselves is why anyone would trade up?

There has to be a compelling reason for a team to give up a draft pick to move up. Moving up in the first round is especially expensive, meaning the reason has to be especially compelling.

Here are the trades in the top half of the first round the past two years

Redskins moving up to #2 for RG3
Browns moving up one spot for Trent Richardson
Jaguars moving up to #5 for Blackmon
Dallas moving up to #6 for Claiborne
Eagles moving up to #12 for Cox

All of those we're trades for consensus top players at their position with arguably steep drop offs after said players except for two, one was RG3 (quarterback is a special case) and the other is Cox (which was a legitimate head scratcher)

In 2011 it was Atlanta moving up for Jones and the Jaguars for Gabbertt

Atlanta supposedly try to make a play for AJ Green, missed on him, got Jones. There was only marginal difference between Jones and Green but considered to be a huge drop after those two. Gabbertt, again, was a QB


Teams will move up for three reasons
1) top player at the position
2) a huge drop off at that position for that player
3) quarterback

So first we start with the basic premise that most picks are not traded, therefore trades are inherently unlikely. From there we examine anyone's motivation for trading,

Unless Geno Smith slides, it's unlikely many teams will be trying to trade up for a QB.

This draft is also heavy in pass rushers and so while its not impossible someone might try to move up to specifically get one player they love (see: Eagles/Cox) it's unlikely and certainly not something to project.

Linebacker is unlikely, teams rarely reach for inside linebackers or 4-3 lbs unless its an insane talent, which isn't in this draft. Same with safety, and again. You can throw in tightend, interior offensive lineman, and now running back in today's NFL. That doesn't mean there aren't exceptions, Trent Richardson as an example, but there are no obviously superior guys at any of those positions in this draft that I've seen so far, and if there were, teams in the top ten would be discussing trading down, not us.

So we're looking at CB and WR primarily. I think you can toss WR out, no Julio jones or AJ Green in here. Which means I can see pretty much one, and only one, scenario that any team could reasonably be expected to try and trade up with us specifically. And that's if Milner goes but Jonathon Banks slides to us,

But the reality is, even then, if you're a team who desperately wants Jonathon Banks, don't you try to trade up AHEAD of the Saints, since we arguably need CB too?

We may trade down, due to some specific circumstance, but there is absoloiutely no reason to project we will. No one has an obvious rationale for doing so, so why think it'll happen?

Honestly, given our history in the draft, it's much more likely we'll trade up rather than trade down.

 

[LSSpam]

Years we've traded up (or back into) the first round under Loomis
2011
2008
2005
2003

Years we've traded down in the first round under Loomis
*tumbleweeds*

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Vikings moving up to draft Jonathan Banks

 

[JackDiesel]

especially if Jarvis Jones drops to 15

If he's there we should draft him!

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

I mean every year, every single year this forum is flooded with trade down scenarios for us in the first round.

How often have we traded down in the first round under Loomis and Payton? How often have we traded up in the first round under Loomis and Payton?

Which is more likely? Really folks

It differs from the norm yes but we are also in the middle of a scheme switch and need to add an influx of youth to this team.

The combination of a deep draft and a need for picks to help ease a defensive transition makes a trade back a very likely scenario.

Is it a 50/50 chance. No its very likely that we stay put..and highly unlikely that we move up. So id say 70/20/10 we stay put to trading back to trading up.

 

[scott88]

If he's there we should draft him!

I'm skeptical with the news that his career might not last very long

 

[Zaphod]

It differs from the norm yes but we are also in the middle of a scheme switch and need to add an influx of youth to this team.

The combination of a deep draft and a need for picks to help ease a defensive transition makes a trade back a very likely scenario.

I think a deep draft makes it a less likely scenario considering no one would have the need to trade up.