If we win, we are in!! (1 Viewer)

[SuperSaintJohn69]

Look at the sixth paragraph in this article. It says the winner of the New Orleans vs. Dallas game will clinch at least a WildCard berth. It doesn't say anything any other team winning or losing for us to get in. Win and we are in!!

http://thetowntalk.com/apps/pbcs.dl...=8OHzPQMGpSQeBMHLblVNPuz7h+1+9L5oIR3aLdcO6io=

 

[Great Dane]

How can that be right when a number of teams are at 6-6 and could go 10-6? Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Falcons. Obviously they also play eachother, so maybe it is down to the conference record. But Cowboys will win their division with 10-6 or better. I do not think we are in at 9-7, but a good step in that direction

 

[SuperSaintJohn69]

How can that be right when a number of teams are at 6-6 and could go 10-6? Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Falcons. Obviously they also play eachother, so maybe it is down to the conference record. But Cowboys will win their division with 10-6 or better. I do not think we are in at 9-7, but a good step in that direction

Whether the Cowboys win their division or not, it doesn't matter.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Minnesota at Detroit
N.Y. Giants at Carolina
Philadelphia at Washington
New Orleans at Dallas

So you see most of the threats are playing each other.

 

[Danneaux]

How can that be right when a number of teams are at 6-6 and could go 10-6? Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Falcons. Obviously they also play eachother, so maybe it is down to the conference record. But Cowboys will win their division with 10-6 or better. I do not think we are in at 9-7, but a good step in that direction

As of now we have a 2 game lead on the rest of the league for that final spot. For us to miss the playoffs completely, Carolina and two other teams have to pass us. If you look at their schedules, you'd see they all play each other. So every win by one team pushes anothe one back.

Giants – @Car, Phi, NO, @Was
Carolina - NYG, Pit, @Atl, @NO
Atlanta - @TB, Dal, Car, @Phi
Philly - @Was, @NYG, @Dal, Atl

As you can see, for ONE team to catch us they’d have to knock off other teams trying to catch us.

And to knock us out of the playoffs alltogether, Carolina and 2 other teams would have to pass us.

 

[bradman1965]

Winning this week does just about sew it up, but mathematicallly there will be some teams alive.

This weeks clinching scenario:

• New Orleans can clinch playoff berth with:
1. A win, a Minnesota loss or tie and Carolina and Philadelphia both lose.
Or
2. A win, a Minnesota loss or tie and N.Y. Giants and Atlanta both lose.
Or
3. A win, a Minnesota loss or tie and Philadelphia and Atlanta both lose.

Mathematically, if you just focus on the Saints making the playofffs (not the division crown or bye), the Dallas game doesn't make a huge difference. If the Saints win there is less than 1% chance of missing the playofffs and if they lose there is about a 1% chance of them missing the playoffs. If they don't win another game there is a 1 in 3 chance of making the playoffs.

source:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/saintswhatif.html

 

[BRAINFREEZE]

somehow, math always rears it's ugly head. i'm doomed. someone, please, just post (in caps, if they let you) WE'RE IN! when we're in, and i will thank you til the day i die.

 

[StRonaldo]

The big game will be Carolina at home, for divisional crown!

 

[Lustmord]

With Delhomme likely out this weekend and who know beyond, Carolina will lose and I think the division will be clinched before the season finale

 

[buckeyesaint]

As of now we have a 2 game lead on the rest of the league for that final spot. For us to miss the playoffs completely, Carolina and two other teams have to pass us. If you look at their schedules, you'd see they all play each other. So every win by one team pushes anothe one back.

Giants – @Car, Phi, NO, @Was
Carolina - NYG, Pit, @Atl, @NO
Atlanta - @TB, Dal, Car, @Phi
Philly - @Was, @NYG, @Dal, Atl

As you can see, for ONE team to catch us they’d have to knock off other teams trying to catch us.

And to knock us out of the playoffs alltogether, Carolina and 2 other teams would have to pass us.

This is a nice way to think about it. Props to you.

The only thing is you can't dismiss Minnesota at 5-7 yet. If we both fiinsh 9-7, then we very clearly CAN lose the tie breakers. Yeah, they seem in disarray right now and may have QB issues. But they do have 4 winnable games left. I'll feel better when they lose one at least one more....

 

[SuperSaintJohn69]

..............................

 

[SuperSaintJohn69]

somehow, math always rears it's ugly head. i'm doomed. someone, please, just post (in caps, if they let you) WE'RE IN! when we're in, and i will thank you til the day i die.

Oh, you can count on it. When, not if, we get in, this board is going to go nuts!!!!!

 

[bradman1965]

The only thing is you can't dismiss Minnesota at 5-7 yet. If we both fiinsh 9-7, then we very clearly CAN lose the tie breakers. Yeah, they seem in disarray right now and may have QB issues. But they do have 4 winnable games left. I'll feel better when they lose one at least one more....

good point. At this point, the Vikings are definitely that storm cloud on the horizon or the gun on the mantle in act 1 of the Novel. Lions, Jets, Packers and Rams they definitely could run the table. I don't think they will, but it sets up sort of like the Saints in 2004 with a mediocre team on a run.

 

[superchuck500]

This is a nice way to think about it. Props to you.

The only thing is you can't dismiss Minnesota at 5-7 yet. If we both fiinsh 9-7, then we very clearly CAN lose the tie breakers. Yeah, they seem in disarray right now and may have QB issues. But they do have 4 winnable games left. I'll feel better when they lose one at least one more....

I'm pretty sure Minnesota will lose another game. They are very mediocre.

But you raise a good point about the tiebreakers. If we both finish 9-7, we'll both be 8-4 in the conference. Since we didn't play head to head, it goes to winning percentage of common opponents, minimum 4 games. Our common opponents are WAS, CAR, GB- but since they play GB twice and we play CAR twice, it would make the minimum 4 games.

They beat WAS, and CAR, but lost to GB. They play GB again. We beat GB, lost to CAR and still to play WAS and CAR.

So in this tiebreaking scenario with MIN, raised by their winning out and us only winning one more game- they would win the common opponents tiebreaker because their beating GB gives them a 3-1 record versus common opponents, and presuming we only win one more game, we could only acheive a 2-2 record against common opponents.

So if it comes down to that- and the Vikes win out and we only win one more game, we lose that tiebreaker.

I don't see them winning out. And I don't see us winning only one game. And don't forget that we clinch the division (no matter what else happens) by beating CAR as long as ATL doesn't win out.

whodat.