Injury reports: games people play (1 Viewer)

st dude

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All NFL teams are supposed to file injury reports. Out means out. Doubtful means 75% the player will not play. Questionable means its 50/50. Probable means just that, barring some setback the player will play.

So what is the purpose of making teams file these reports? Which teams use these reports strategically to over report and under report injuries? Is there some real advantage to be gained either way? Have you ever heard of a team getting penalized for falsely reporting?

Before answering lets look at a couple extreme reports from this week. it is a very violent game and you would think by week 11 most teams wouyld be beat up pretty good. Take a look at the Giants/Jags game. its like half of each teasm players are hurt.

NEW YORK GIANTS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - Giants: OUT: DE Michael Strahan (Foot); T Luke Petitgout (Fibula); DE Justin Tuck (Foot). DOUBTFUL: DE Osi Umenyiora (Hip Flexor); CB Sam Madison (Hamstring). QUESTIONABLE: LB Brandon Short (Quadricep); WR Sinorice Moss (Quadricep); LB Carlos Emmons (Groin). Jaguars: QUESTIONABLE: T Stockar McDougle (Ankle); DT Marcus Stroud (Ankle); S Donovin Darius (Knee); P Chris Hanson (Hamstring); QB Byron Leftwich (Ankle); LB Jorge Cordova (Hamstring). PROBABLE: CB Terry Cousin (Groin); DE Bobby McCray (Shoulder); CB Rashean Mathis (Hamstring); LB Daryl Smith (Biceps); LB Clint Ingram (Shoulder); LB Brian Iwuh (Shin); RB Derrick Wimbush (Ankle); TE George Wrighster (Back); DT John Henderson (Hamstring); CB Brian Williams (Foot); DE Marcellus Wiley (Groin); RB Fred Taylor (Groin); S Gerald Sensabaugh (Shoulder); CB Dee Webb (Shoulder); S Nick Sorensen (Head); WR Ernest Wilford (Thigh); T Wayne Hunter (Wrist).



Look at the probable list for the Jags. If a guy has hurt feelings he gets on the list. It would seem the Jaguar staff is fairly liberal in determiong who is hurt. Now the other extreme. Check out the rams/panthers injury report.

ST. LOUIS RAMS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS - Rams: PROBABLE: LB Raonall Smith (Jaw). Panthers: OUT: DT Jordan Carstens (Illness). DOUBTFUL: C Justin Hartwig (Groin). PROBABLE: CB Ken Lucas (Thigh).

Are you kidding me? The rams have one player hurt and he is probable? I am questionable after a round of golf with either my elbow, back or neck. How are the rams not as nicked up as the rest of the league? Haslett's guys not hitting?

Now lets take a shot at the questions.

So what is the purpose of making teams file these reports? I think it has all to do with Vegas and the lines. The NFL will never admit this, but a huge part of the NFLs popularity is its appeal to gamblers. Injury information is critical. The saints might be favored this week but what if you knew Brees had a sore thumb and would not play? To keep the playing field level for Vegas the teams are required to submit reports. I can not prove it, I just know it.

Which teams use these reports strategically to over report and under report injuries? Based on this week it would seem the Rams under report and the Jags over report. I cannot see how a team in week 11 can have only one guy hurting. The Jags, on the other hand, would report a guy with a heat rash as injured.

Is there some real advantage to be gained either way? I dont think so but evidently some teams do. I guess you under report so the team wont go after your guys injury. I think the Ravens may have gone after Bush's tender ankle a bit. I suppose you over report to keep them guessing on who will play. You would have a different game plan to play Michael Vick than to play his back up so I suppose some advantage could be had there in keeping them guessing.

Have you ever heard of a team getting penalized for falsely reporting? I have not. Has anyone heard of a team getting penalized for this? I think its pretty clear teams abuse this system.
 

LSSpam

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So what is the purpose of making teams file these reports? I think it has all to do with Vegas and the lines.
I don't see that. For one, as you said, the injury reports are extremely subjective as it is. Only "OUT" and "Doubtful" are remotely meaningful. So if Vegas was setting lines based on the injury reports, they'd be in pretty poor shape.

I think it's more that it's a relic left over from the days before the internet and ESPN, when teams and fans had to get their information from newspapers.

Have you ever heard of a team getting penalized for falsely reporting? I have not. Has anyone heard of a team getting penalized for this? I think its pretty clear teams abuse this system.
Bill Belicheck got in trouble with the league for underreporting his injuries. His explanation was, as you pointed out, after a football game who isn't "probable". Since then he's ridiculously over-reported and the NFL has just sort of rolled it's eyes at him. Tom Brady for example has been "probable" the entire season even though when repeatedly asked he's said he is fine.

It sort of started a trend. Whenever teams play the Patriots if you notice they seem to have more players on the injury list then they have the rest of the season. The Colts list was outrageous. The Packers list this Sunday is pretty long. Whether this is because they support Belicheck or he ticks them off *shrug*. Who knows.
 

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Just make it easy.

Probable: The whole team
 
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I don't see that. For one, as you said, the injury reports are extremely subjective as it is. Only "OUT" and "Doubtful" are remotely meaningful. So if Vegas was setting lines based on the injury reports, they'd be in pretty poor shape.

I think it's more that it's a relic left over from the days before the internet and ESPN, when teams and fans had to get their information from newspapers.



.
I have to disagree here. With Vegas its all about perception. Who do you think pays most attention to these lists? The teams or bettors?

A huge part of the NFLs popularity has to do with gambling. More money is bet on the Superbowl than the GNP of a lot of countries. The NFL knows this.

As part of their "image" the NFL separates itself from Vegas and gambling. Make no mistake about it, though, the NFL is a business all about money and the interest in NFL games would be way, WAY, less without the gambling. The NFL makes no money off gambling per se, but it makes tons off the interest generated with gamblers.

Gamblers break down injury reports like a handicapper at the track. Vegas uses the reports to set the lines. Vegas doesnt really care so much how accurate the reports are. If the report says Manning will not play the line will move to where the bettors take it. The injury reports are part of the gambling culture.

Outwardly the NFL may tell you they are against gambling. Behind closed doors they cultivate it.
 
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LSSpam

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I have to disagree here. With Vegas its all about perception. Who do you think pays most attention to these lists? The teams or bettors?

A huge part of the NFLs popularity has to do with gambling. More money is bet on the Superbowl than the GNP of a lot of countries. The NFL knows this.

As part of their "image" the NFL separates itself from Vegas and gambling. Make no mistake about it, though, the NFL is a business all about money and the interest in NFL games would be way, WAY, less without the gambling. The NFL makes no money off gambling per se, but it makes tons off the interest genrated with gamblers.

Gamblers break down injury reports like a handicapper at the track. Vegas uses the reprots to set the lines. Vegas doesnt really care so much how accurate the reports are. If the report says Manning will not play the line will move to where the bettors take it. The injury reports are part of the gambling culture.

Outwardly the NFL may tell you they are against gambling. Behind closed doors they cultivate it.
I think I can agre with most of that. I just don't feel the origins of injuries reports is strictly gambling in nature. I suppose I don't have much reasoning for that other then gut though :)
 
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I think I can agre with most of that. I just don't feel the origins of injuries reports is strictly gambling in nature. I suppose I don't have much reasoning for that other then gut though :)

Well I dont have much reasoning other than "gut' either, but interstingly enough I found this article that seems to imply the origin does have something to do with gambling.


"A league spokesman said injury reports go back beyond the 1970 AFL/NFL merger and that their purpose is "to serve the public interest and to eliminate inside information that could be improperly exploited." Gambling, of course, is a concern."

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2006-11-04-injury-reports_x.htm?csp=34

Here you have a league spokesman saying injury reports are designed to "serve public interest" and to make sure "inside info is not exploited".

That would be code for gambling to me. How could a fan explot inside info about an injury other than in some gambling scenario?

The bigger question would be why would the league worry about gamblers getting hosed with inside info? It goes back to my premise. The NFL wants people to gamble and they have to make gambling as up front and legit as possible. The injury reports are designed to give gamblers equal access to info. They as much as admit it.

Now here is a tip for gamblers. Small college betting is not nearly as sophisticated. Everyone knows who is hurt in the NFL and who is hurt in the big Ohio State/Michigan game. Vegas often doesnt know kety events leading up to small college games, or doesnt know about it soon enough to stop you from making abig bet before the line moves.

You can, however, get valuable inside info on small college games that Vegas doesnt follow as much. For instance, I might could find out Jerry Babb(the ULL QB) at ULL got the flu on Thursday and get down a big bet on their opponent at a sportsbook before the odds ever move. You have a much better chance getting info Vegas doesnt have on small colleges than you do on NFL games and major college match ups.
 

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Well I dont have much reasoning other than "gut' either, but interstingly enough I found this article that seems to imply the origin does have something to do with gambling.


"A league spokesman said injury reports go back beyond the 1970 AFL/NFL merger and that their purpose is "to serve the public interest and to eliminate inside information that could be improperly exploited." Gambling, of course, is a concern."

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2006-11-04-injury-reports_x.htm?csp=34

Here you have a league spokesman saying injury reports are designed to "serve public interest" and to make sure "inside info is not exploited".

That would be code for gambling to me. How could a fan explot inside info about an injury other than in some gambling scenario?

The bigger question would be why would the league worry about gamblers getting hosed with inside info? It goes back to my premise. The NFL wants people to gamble and they have to make gambling as up front and legit as possible. The injury reports are designed to give gamblers equal access to info. They as much as admit it.

I think that is correct and fits with my perception of the NFL. I just want to stress this. That quote seems to suggest the NFLs concern is the gamblers and not the bookies. The NFL has always seemed antagonistic towards Vegas. And I don't feel it's an act. They genuinely seem to feel Vegas represents a threat to the integrity of the league.

But at the same time, you are correct, they seem to understand that betting at the basic level (office pools, fantasy leagues, and individual bets on games/super bowl/etc) is a big part of the interest in the NFL (no other game is as good to bet on).

So there appears to be a dichotomy in the NFL between it's courting of fan interest on any level and dislike for "Vegas". The injury report would then seem to embody that, as the NFL tries to pander to public interest but sounds almost paternalistic in doing so, worried about big bad evil Vegas exploiting it's fans.
 
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They genuinely seem to feel Vegas represents a threat to the integrity of the league.

.

Follow me here. Clearly the NFL feels that any perceived connection between them and Vegas(Vegas being a term that is associated by many with organized crime) is a threat to the integrity of the game. We agree that is the company line. We agree the NFL does not want to be openly connected to gambling in any way.

Phillip Morris just asked Hollywood to stop portraying their cigarette products in movies as they do not want to encourage underage smoking. That is their company line.

Now its not quite the same as the NFL does not directly benefit from gambling as PM does for cigarette sales, but the analogy still holds.

The NFL is a business geared towards profit. The big profits are TV ratings which are driven by viewer interest. Viewer interest is in turn fueled for many by gambling. The NFL knows this and they love Vegas. Its just good business for them to say they dont.
 

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Follow me here. Clearly the NFL feels that any perceived connection between them and Vegas(Vegas being a term that is associated by many with organized crime) is a threat to the integrity of the game. We agree that is the company line. We agree the NFL does not want to be openly connected to gambling in any way.

Phillip Morris just asked Hollywood to stop portraying their cigarette products in movies as they do not want to encourage underage smoking. That is their company line.

Now its not quite the same as the NFL does not directly benefit from gambling as PM does for cigarette sales, but the analogy still holds.

The NFL is a business geared towards profit. The big profits are TV ratings which are driven by viewer interest. Viewer interest is in turn fueled for many by gambling. The NFL knows this and they love Vegas. Its just good business for them to say they dont.
Well I simply feel the NFL draws a line between gamblers and bookies. And the openly court one (gamblers) and seem to have an honest revulsion to the other (bookies).
 

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