Iowa Caucus predictions (1 Viewer)

[whodatfever]

Democrats: This is a three-way contest among Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.), and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.). It's possible that there are only three survivors out of Iowa for the Democrats and that the second-tier candidates will be gone by New Hampshire.

The Democratic field looks to shake out this way:


1st Place: Barack Obama
2nd Place: John Edwards
3rd Place: Hillary Clinton
4th Place: Bill Richardson

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Republicans: This is a two-way contest between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The battle for third place is among former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.), Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.). Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is not even spending this week in Iowa. Instead, he is campaigning in New Hampshire.


The most likely (Republican) outcome appears to be:


1st Place: Mitt Romney
2nd Place: Mike Huckabee
3rd Place: Fred Thompson
4th Place: John McCain

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24241

 

[JimEverett]

Democrats:

1 - Edwards
2- Clinton
3- Obama

Republicans:

1- Huckabee
2- Romney
3- McCain

These are the most wide-open caucuses I can remember. Even more so than 1988. A nice excuse to party.

 

[bclemms]

Republicans
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Paul

 

[d3cyph3r]

Republicans:

1 - Paul
2 - Huckabee
3 - Romney

Democrats:

1 - Edwards
2 - Obama
3 - Clinton

If Paul comes in 3rd it will be a victory, especially with most media outlets being silent about him.

 

[bclemms]

Republicans:

1 - Paul
2 - Huckabee
3 - Romney

Democrats:

1 - Edwards
2 - Obama
3 - Clinton

I don't think Paul is going to do great in Iowa because it is a closed caucus. I do think he could win NH though. If Paul can finish in the top 5 in Iowa it would be considered a win on his part but I'm expecting him to take 3rd.

 

[SaintsFan11]

Iowa is not a closed primary. It's an open caucus.

That being said, Ron Paul will not finish third in Iowa, nor will he win New Hampshire. He may finish third there behind Romney and McCain IF Obama does not fare well in Iowa.

For the GOP, I think Iowa will go like this:

Romney
Huckabee
Thompson
McCain
Paul
Giuliani


The Democratic side will go like this IMO:

Obama
Clinton
Edwards

 

[SoonerJim]

Romney, Huckabee, Thompson

Obama, Edwards, Clinton

Two candidates from each party drop out prior to the NH primary

 

[bclemms]

Iowa is not a closed primary. It's an open caucus.

That being said, Ron Paul will not finish third in Iowa, nor will he win New Hampshire. He may finish third there behind Romney and McCain IF Obama does not fare well in Iowa.

For the GOP, I think Iowa will go like this:

Romney
Huckabee
Thompson
McCain
Paul
Giuliani


The Democratic side will go like this IMO:

Obama
Clinton
Edwards

Oops, put primary instead of Caucus. The Iowa Caucus is closed.

 

[SaintsFan11]

Oops, put primary instead of Caucus. The Iowa Caucus is closed.

Sorry, you're right. It is closed, but IIRC, you can change your party affiliation at the caucus so essentially a Republican or Independent can vote in the Democratic caucus and a Democrat or Independent can vote in the Republican caucus.

 

[taygolf]

Dems:

Obama
Clinton
Edwards

Rep:
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson

This is to easy

T

 

[SoonerJim]

At least the caucus participants will winnow the list of a thoroughly compromised and mediocre field, the heirs to Madison, Jefferson, and Lincoln. Gah.

Romney- Ken Doll automaton
Guiliani- 9/11 Groundhog Day
Huckabee- Religious fabulist
Thompson- Reagan sequel dud
Paul- tinfoil hat Libertarian
McCain- Manchurian candidate
Hunter- never heard of him

Clinton- Hildebeast 666
Obama- Milquetoast Moor messiah
Edwards- Steinbeckian hypocrite
Richardson- Sancho Panza
Dodd- Castro apologist
Biden-loquacious plagiarist
Kucinich- Space oddity
Gravel- never heard of him

 

[bclemms]

Sorry, you're right. It is closed, but IIRC, you can change your party affiliation at the caucus so essentially a Republican or Independent can vote in the Democratic caucus and a Democrat or Independent can vote in the Republican caucus.

Correct but you can't register to vote at the caucus, the deadline was 12/24/07. This will play a part because Paul has such a large support among the young people and so many that just haven't voted in the past. I think he will get third. I wouldn't be shocked if he flat out won but I think he gets third behind Huck and Romney. I think McCain takes 4th and Thompson gets 5th. Giuliani is going to get his doors blown off.

Even though I don't believe the number of actual Paul supporters will compare to Thompson or McCain I do believe they will show up to vote at a much higher rate.

Paul doesn't need to win, he just needs to get in the top 3 in hopes he will get media coverage. As of now a huge percentage of people have no idea who he is or what he stands for.

 

[SaintsFan11]

What makes you think Paul can get 3rd, or even win (you said you wouldn't be shocked)?

No poll shows this. No one in the media is even speculating about it.

 

[d3cyph3r]

The weather is going to be crappy and Ron Paul's supporters are very motivated to go and caucus for their candidate. It's not just a simple show up vote and leave, it's a 2 hours process.

The polls are wrong, they are not accounting for the unlikely primary/caucus voters. They say only 10% of registered voters show up for primaries/caucuses, Ron Paul has so many people switching parties and ready to vote in primaries and such for the first time.

Some polls haven't even included Dr. Paul, we will all know the truth of the polls tomorrow night hopefully.

 

[Saint Mike]

Romney
McCain
Huckabee


Obama
Edwards
Clinton