Is Fairley a High Risk, Potential Byrd and Browner Type Resign??? (1 Viewer)

[Swimmer]

if ******* fairley thinks he's getting some blockbuster than he can ****. he's not worth more than 5m per yr. even that is pushing it IMO the dude is notorious for being a slacker..

I was trying to me more polite about it. Yes, most of career, until the last 2 years exactly that, a "Slacker." Has he seen the light over the last 2 years or is this his retirement contract?

I am not judging the guy. I really like him and want him on the Saints next year. But a major contract with high guarantees is risky here.

 

[V Chip]

It just so happens last year was a contract year. So many players who underperform then light it up in contract years make terrible FA signings, "Take the Money and Run!"

It just so happens the last 3 seasons were contract years for him. He performed much better this year than the prior 2 contract years, so the idea of him just turning it up in a contract year is very tenuous.

 

[SAINTSFAN]

Fairley better give us that hometown discount. We only have 6 players making over 4 mil/year. Brees, Armstead, Jordan, Byrd, Unger, and Fleener. I definitely wouldn't give him more than 7 and that's pushing it. 5-6 sounds more like it.

What players on this team make is irrelevant. The market for DTs in the NFL is what matters.

 

[Slaw]

What players on this team make is irrelevant. The market for DTs in the NFL is what matters.

I don't think it's completely irrelevant. I wouldn't give him Cam Jordan money. No matter what other DTs are making.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

I don't think it's completely irrelevant. I wouldn't give him Cam Jordan money. No matter what other DTs are making.

Two different positions. When cam signed his contract extension before the 15 season, he got 5/55. Made him a rich rich man. 2 years later, after multiple cap rises, he's still the 3rd highest paid 4-3 DE in the NFL. He has the 7th highest contract of edge rushers overall. Considering the cap rises, shows how much he signed for.

You want quality in the NFL you have to pay for it, or gamble on rookies who become very good while playing on their initial 4-5 year contract. (Cooks/Thomas/etc)

 

[Slaw]

Two different positions. When cam signed his contract extension before the 15 season, he got 5/55. Made him a rich rich man. 2 years later, after multiple cap rises, he's still the 3rd highest paid 4-3 DE in the NFL. He has the 7th highest contract of edge rushers overall. Considering the cap rises, shows how much he signed for.

You want quality in the NFL you have to pay for it, or gamble on rookies who become very good while playing on their initial 4-5 year contract. (Cooks/Thomas/etc)

I would take my chances with Rankins, Davison, Onyemata before I gave Fairley 10 mil a year.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

I would take my chances with Rankins, Davison, Onyemata before I gave Fairley 10 mil a year.

I'm fine with that. I just feel the board here overall seems to be undervaluing the guy. Hometown discounts and all that sound great, but even those discounts aren't lowball offers either.

If the NFL signs him based on production, we might have to sign a big check or let him walk. Dream scenario for me is getting him at 5-6m.

 

[Slaw]

I'm fine with that. I just feel the board here overall seems to be undervaluing the guy. Hometown discounts and all that sound great, but even those discounts aren't lowball offers either.

If the NFL signs him based on production, we might have to sign a big check or let him walk. Dream scenario for me is getting him at 5-6m.

That's the exact amount I suggested when I mentioned a hometown discount.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

That's the exact amount I suggested when I mentioned a hometown discount.

Anything's possible, but given his age coming into next season this is probably his last shot to get a contract worth big money. I think he goes for the almighty dollar. Let's cross our fingers and pray he considers other logic!

Edit: In terms of production/his value 5-6m is a low ball amount. That's why I said it's a dream scenario.

 

[Slaw]

Anything's possible, but given his age coming into next season this is probably his last shot to get a contract worth big money. I think he goes for the almighty dollar. Let's cross our fingers and pray he considers other logic!

Edit: In terms of production/his value 5-6m is a low ball amount. That's why I said it's a dream scenario.

Maybe so. But if he gets 8+ I sure hope it's not from us.

 

[SaintsJunkie]

We need him , don't over think it. the market will take into account his one year of real production

 

[SAINTSFAN]

I don't think it's completely irrelevant. I wouldn't give him Cam Jordan money. No matter what other DTs are making.

Fairley is not a DE. What he gets is completely dependent on the current market (whether it is here ore elsewhere) and not what we think.

 

[Swimmer]

Anything's possible, but given his age coming into next season this is probably his last shot to get a contract worth big money. I think he goes for the almighty dollar. Let's cross our fingers and pray he considers other logic!

Edit: In terms of production/his value 5-6m is a low ball amount. That's why I said it's a dream scenario.

Rev-without home town discount, what do you think a full contract will look like for Fairley? Total? Yearly? Guaranteed? Thx

 

[DarkBuddha]

Im a bit surprised by the amount of people willing to let Fairley walk. He played great for us. Our DEF has been perennially bad. You dont let the solid guys walk if want to turn it around. Even if we are somewhat loaded at DT with Rankins, Davidson and Big O coming into their own, having a solid rotation on the front four allows us to blitz less and slow down offenses with more bodies in the back seven. The guy has been in the league for a few years and knows how to be a pro, is on his 'hometown' team and knows he has a shot to win a ring with Brees and co.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

Rev-without home town discount, what do you think a full contract will look like for Fairley? Total? Yearly? Guaranteed? Thx

This is 100% guesswork really, so anyone's opinion here on the forum is just as good as mine. However, since you asked I'll give you my ballpark based on research I've done.

I'd say 3 years, 21-27 mill, with 9-12m guaranteed. The reason I leave the range there is because it depends on how much Mickey can get away with in incentives. If he can convince Fairley to sign at say, 7m a year, but he gets a 750k bonus every time he reaches 6 sacks, that would give him another 2.25m in cash. Odds are, however, he would probably only reach that number maybe one time.

Incentives are like insurance. You're betting the player they won't produce to the level you've signed them at. Either way, it's a win-win for the team. If a player signs a high incentive deal, the max number the player can earn is probably the max number the team was willing to sign anyway, they just had reservations.

This also depends on when we are able to get him to put pen to paper. There are 14 active DTs who have had at least 3 seasons with 5 sacks or more. There are 12 active DTs who have had at least 2 seasons with 6 sacks or more. Fairley is in both groups. Only 5 of those players are coming out of 2016 having done so.

It puts him in an upper group, which always means upper money. Sorry if it kinda looks like I'm going in and around your question. I'm just not 100% sure, so I'm trying to give everyone here as much information as possible so they can make their own predictions.

Im a bit surprised by the amount of people willing to let Fairley walk. He played great for us. Our DEF has been perennially bad. You dont let the solid guys walk if want to turn it around. Even if we are somewhat loaded at DT with Rankins, Davidson and Big O coming into their own, having a solid rotation on the front four allows us to blitz less and slow down offenses with more bodies in the back seven. The guy has been in the league for a few years and knows how to be a pro, is on his 'hometown' team and knows he has a shot to win a ring with Brees and co.

I don't think it's necessarily a willingness to let him walk as much as it is we have someone else planned for his spot. So, signing a long term deal for a guy who will become your back up can cost you (literally). Your logic is sound, but the 36-40m we're slotted to have (remember to take away about 5m for draft picks) isn't going to stretch as far as fans hope it will. Depends on how things go. I certainly want him back. I just don't want to break the bank either.