Is the fix in for Taysom? (1 Viewer)

Winston's INT's were high under Arians, but most QBs not name Brady had the same result their first year with him as their coach.

Winston has the tools to be great. At best Taysom can be really good. Winston is younger and has less injuries in his history. I don't believe Taysom is a true passer and runners don't always last long at this level. Especially those that run with force.

Winston just has a higher ceiling to me and stability with the organization and coaching staff is something he's never had. Didn't he have like 3 different head coaches and multiple offensive systems in 5 years in Tampa? Many wouldn't do well with all of that change.
I can see where you are coming from. You take right on the line of one side and I am taking the other side of the line, it seems. Nothing wrong with that and, as said, I can see how you would formulate your take, as well. I agree that he has the TOOLS...he is a giant block of POTENTIAL that hasn't shown it yet. My concern with Hill IS the injury, but I think, as in the Falcons game, he will run on called plays and when he doesn't have a pass option. Payton will have him cherry picked on runs, so wouldn't have as much injury chance, BUT, yes, he does still run hard on each play he does run which raises that concern. If he goes down for injury, which I think he might this season, Winston could be called on if he doesn't start. He could also end up being #3 by the end of the year. I agree that Hill also, to be successful, will be drawing on his threat to run more than a pocket passer...but that is his game...those 2 skills. If he is even a GOOD passer, the entire skillset is leveled up with his potential to help win games. I think he manages a CSP offense well if starts.

I am on the other side of the coin with Winston's ceiling. I think he has pretty much hit it. Of course he has a great, live arm, but you need technique, accuracy and decision making. This is a video of all his INTS from 2015-2018, so seasons before Arians and they are in chronological order. He threw less in those years, yes BUT...It isn't the NUMBER of INTS that are concerning it is the situations and the INTS themselves that are concerning. You consistently see bad throws to wide open receivers with no pressure, thrown straight TO defenders and other options just sitting open as he tries to thread it into a blanketed WR who is not open at all...not even a 50/50 ball. I don't count "time running off the clock" hail mary throws either. It is his decision making. Most of his INT's are a receiver running a bad route or not knowing the offense, it is just a really really bad decision on top of bad ball placement. These are not scheme or errant playcalling, just flat out bad execution. You can analyze QB's INT's and see when just going for a 50/50 ball in the right situation, a WR falling down, a wrong route, etc. The film doesn't always show that, but you can usually have a good take away from it. A large % of his INT's are just perplexing.


2015-2018 in chronological order
 
What is it about his contract that you believe gives him a slight edge? I'm in the camp that Sean is going to make the decision based on football, not money.

We are in the same camp. I may be reading into something that's not there, but it seems to me that the Saints could have easily offered Taysom an incentive based contract that would pay him QB1 money if he wins the starting job, and joker money if he does not. And, the Saints would be able to guarantee that Taysom is with the Saints for the next few years.

But, instead they offered Taysom a contract that pays him QB1 money in 22, or they have to void his contract if Taysom isn't willing to renegotiate. I don't think the Saints offer Taysom that kind of contract if they weren't pretty sure that Taysom was going to start. I'd hate to see Taysom trucking Saints dbs in another uniform.
 
What is it about his contract that you believe gives him a slight edge? I'm in the camp that Sean is going to make the decision based on football, not money.
CSP doesn't care about money, draft pick status, veteran, past success. He didn't start Hill because he "promised him", he started him because he thought he gave the best chance in winning, or not LOSING, those games. He has cut draft picks over more producing/progressing UDFA's (Antonio Pittman/Pierre Thomas). He has jettisoned highly productive players in their prime such as Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills, Jimmy Graham, etc. who weren't "buying into" the scheme, culture and locker room. He doesn't care about anything but TRUST, execution and production. He will go with the non "sexy" player with poor stats who just helps WIN games. It isn't all about the stats, either.
 
We are in the same camp. I may be reading into something that's not there, but it seems to me that the Saints could have easily offered Taysom an incentive based contract that would pay him QB1 money if he wins the starting job, and joker money if he does not. And, the Saints would be able to guarantee that Taysom is with the Saints for the next few years.

But, instead they offered Taysom a contract that pays him QB1 money in 22, or they have to void his contract if Taysom isn't willing to renegotiate. I don't think the Saints offer Taysom that kind of contract if they weren't pretty sure that Taysom was going to start. I'd hate to see Taysom trucking Saints dbs in another uniform.

The contract extension that the Saints signed Taysom to this off-season means nothing. It was to create cap relief for this off-season and nothing else. Even if Taysom wins the job, that contract will 100% void and they will negotiate a new one. Taysom is basically in a contract year.
 
The contract extension that the Saints signed Taysom to this off-season means nothing. It was to create cap relief for this off-season and nothing else. Even if Taysom wins the job, that contract will 100% void and they will negotiate a new one. Taysom is basically in a contract year.

Right, but Taysom doesn't have to renegotiate. I don't think the Saints offer Taysom a contract that almost certainly guarantees losing him in 22 if they weren't pretty sure that Taysom is going to start.

But, I think it's more like 51/49 for Taysom to start. I'm not sure Payton is convinced that anyone on the roster is the future until they earn it.
 
What is it about his contract that you believe gives him a slight edge? I'm in the camp that Sean is going to make the decision based on football, not money.
And it's not like he's getting paid QB money, not even close.
 
Right, but Taysom doesn't have to renegotiate. I don't think the Saints offer Taysom a contract that almost certainly guarantees losing him in 22 if they weren't pretty sure that Taysom is going to start.

But, I think it's more like 51/49 for Taysom to start. I'm not sure Payton is convinced that anyone on the roster is the future until they earn it.
I gotta believe Payton knows long term the solution needs to be Winston. For all practical purposes.

Therefore unless Jameis just looks horrible and hasn't progressed, he's the guy.
 
I gotta believe Payton knows long term the solution needs to be Winston. For all practical purposes.

Therefore unless Jameis just looks horrible and hasn't progressed, he's the guy.

I think that's what Payton hopes for, and he will give him every chance. But, I don't think he has a lot of confidence that he will get there.

But, I do like everything that Winston is doing this offseason.
 
CSP doesn't care about money, draft pick status, veteran, past success. He didn't start Hill because he "promised him", he started him because he thought he gave the best chance in winning, or not LOSING, those games. He has cut draft picks over more producing/progressing UDFA's (Antonio Pittman/Pierre Thomas). He has jettisoned highly productive players in their prime such as Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills, Jimmy Graham, etc. who weren't "buying into" the scheme, culture and locker room. He doesn't care about anything but TRUST, execution and production. He will go with the non "sexy" player with poor stats who just helps WIN games. It isn't all about the stats, either.

If Payton does indeed go with Taysom, do you think that Payton's long term vision of the Saints and the NFL trend towards more athletic QBs has anything to do with the decision? It seems to me that there's more to it than just Taysom vs Winston.
 
Right, but Taysom doesn't have to renegotiate. I don't think the Saints offer Taysom a contract that almost certainly guarantees losing him in 22 if they weren't pretty sure that Taysom is going to start.

But, I think it's more like 51/49 for Taysom to start. I'm not sure Payton is convinced that anyone on the roster is the future until they earn it.

That's the thing though, he does have to renegotiate. The contract will 100% void regardless of what happens.
 
Based on 4 career starts (his first 4 starts at QB in approx 4 years).

There was another guy a few years back that played QB exclusively all through college... never had a major injury... and ended up a top draft pick...
His 1st 4 career starts he went 0-4, had 3 TDs and 11 INTs.

Was that a big enough sample size to write that guy off and say that he didn’t have what it takes to be a starting caliber NFL QB?

His coaches thought “no” and let him continue to work on it... that player was Peyton Manning.

...and before you tell me about how bad that Colts team sucked, he had Marshall Faulk, Marvin Harrison, Marcus Pollard, and Jerome Pathon among his weapons.

Point is, it takes more than 4 starts at QB to tell what a guy can/can’t do.
How many fumbles did he have? How many wide open WR did he completely miss? It’s more than stats; it’s the ability to move the chains and score TDS. Sure Taysom was 3-1; but he was not an efficient QB. Winning against 3 very subjective teams does not make you Peyton Manning
 
That's the thing though, he does have to renegotiate. The contract will 100% void regardless of what happens.

If he wants to stay with the Saints, yes. But, once the contract is voided, he can go anywhere he wants.
 
How many fumbles did he have? How many wide open WR did he completely miss? It’s more than stats; it’s the ability to move the chains and score TDS. Sure Taysom was 3-1; but he was not an efficient QB. Winning against 3 very subjective teams does not make you Peyton Manning
I get it... I’m not going to change your mind, and you’re not going to change mine.

I think going 3-1 means something... you think it’s overblown.
I think Peyton Manning throwing 11 INTs over his first 4 NFL starts is worse than Taysom losing 3-4 fumbles...

My point is that I don’t believe 4 career starts at QB is a big enough sample size to determine that Taysom Hill definitively isn’t the guy for the job.
 
I can see where you are coming from. You take right on the line of one side and I am taking the other side of the line, it seems. Nothing wrong with that and, as said, I can see how you would formulate your take, as well. I agree that he has the TOOLS...he is a giant block of POTENTIAL that hasn't shown it yet. My concern with Hill IS the injury, but I think, as in the Falcons game, he will run on called plays and when he doesn't have a pass option. Payton will have him cherry picked on runs, so wouldn't have as much injury chance, BUT, yes, he does still run hard on each play he does run which raises that concern. If he goes down for injury, which I think he might this season, Winston could be called on if he doesn't start. He could also end up being #3 by the end of the year. I agree that Hill also, to be successful, will be drawing on his threat to run more than a pocket passer...but that is his game...those 2 skills. If he is even a GOOD passer, the entire skillset is leveled up with his potential to help win games. I think he manages a CSP offense well if starts.

I am on the other side of the coin with Winston's ceiling. I think he has pretty much hit it. Of course he has a great, live arm, but you need technique, accuracy and decision making. This is a video of all his INTS from 2015-2018, so seasons before Arians and they are in chronological order. He threw less in those years, yes BUT...It isn't the NUMBER of INTS that are concerning it is the situations and the INTS themselves that are concerning. You consistently see bad throws to wide open receivers with no pressure, thrown straight TO defenders and other options just sitting open as he tries to thread it into a blanketed WR who is not open at all...not even a 50/50 ball. I don't count "time running off the clock" hail mary throws either. It is his decision making. Most of his INT's are a receiver running a bad route or not knowing the offense, it is just a really really bad decision on top of bad ball placement. These are not scheme or errant playcalling, just flat out bad execution. You can analyze QB's INT's and see when just going for a 50/50 ball in the right situation, a WR falling down, a wrong route, etc. The film doesn't always show that, but you can usually have a good take away from it. A large % of his INT's are just perplexing.


2015-2018 in chronological order

Yeah Winston needs work too to become our true #1. His decision making is really his only knock. And to me coaching is what he lacked. Hell Brett Favre was a HOF QB and he threw alot of picks as well. It's that overconfidence that they can fit a ball anywhere. Drew had that when he was younger but the difference is he had world class accuracy and timing so he pulled it off.
 
We are in the same camp. I may be reading into something that's not there, but it seems to me that the Saints could have easily offered Taysom an incentive based contract that would pay him QB1 money if he wins the starting job, and joker money if he does not. And, the Saints would be able to guarantee that Taysom is with the Saints for the next few years.

But, instead they offered Taysom a contract that pays him QB1 money in 22, or they have to void his contract if Taysom isn't willing to renegotiate. I don't think the Saints offer Taysom that kind of contract if they weren't pretty sure that Taysom was going to start. I'd hate to see Taysom trucking Saints dbs in another uniform.
No, the contract automatically voids.

No QB gets a 140 million dollar(Top 5 contract money) extension without elite production. It's absurd. That's Russell Wilson pay.
 

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