It's that time of year again! (Hurricane Season Thread) (2 Viewers)

[Madmarsha]

This is much too early to be talking about hurricanes and tropical storms.

And we're already on "C" early in July. Excuse me, apparently "D". I've been w/o much media in the last week.

 

[efil4stnias]

Figured as much. I don't like the way model consensus is building a ridge over the NE with the western edge of the high pressure sitting over the northern gulf as Dorian starts making its way through the caribbean. Long way off though.

that NE ridge would do what exactly? Attract a storm north ( but blocking high would make storm skirt the periphery ) ?

 

[Pop Rouge]

And we're already on "C" early in July. Excuse me, apparently "D". I've been w/o much media in the last week.

There is no "D" storm or even an Invest for what P-Town-Balla is referring to. I assume he's speculating on future development based on model runs.

 

[P-town balla]

There is no "D" storm or even an Invest for what P-Town-Balla is referring to. I assume he's speculating on future development based on model runs.

Yes.

 

[Madmarsha]

There is no "D" storm or even an Invest for what P-Town-Balla is referring to. I assume he's speculating on future development based on model runs.

Thx for the info! Like I said, I'm way behind on my media saturation.

 

[P-town balla]

that NE ridge would do what exactly? Attract a storm north ( but blocking high would make storm skirt the periphery ) ?

Generally act a blocking mechanism to keep a storm from going up the east coast.

 

[perret318]

I don't think Chantal will be much of anything if it has any impact on the US.


The one that may get interesting is the storm the GFS forms out in the Atlantic and brings up into the caribbean next week.

Where can I see these extended GFS runs? I could always use another reason to be paranoid.

 

[bclemms]

Where can I see these extended GFS runs? I could always use another reason to be paranoid.

There are a lot of places to see them. I've always liked Florida State's tropical model page for ease of use.
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields

The best model page is NCEP, it is the page all other model sites get the data from. It is a bit more complicated to use.
NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance

On the NCEP page select the latest GFS run, then select Atlantic and then choose 850mb pressure or surface pressure. Then you can loop or go frame by frame.

 

[Domefan504]

Don't listen to Margaret Orr. One thing I learned last year.

 

[bclemms]

TD4 has formed way out in the Atlantic. Models are bringing it towards the gulf by next weekend but the same models aren't strengthening it very much. Really long way out but the current weather pattern indicates a gulf storm if it can maintain.

 

[saintsfanfl]

TD4 has formed way out in the Atlantic. Models are bringing it towards the gulf by next weekend but the same models aren't strengthening it very much. Really long way out but the current weather pattern indicates a gulf storm if it can maintain.

Being based in S. Florida (the 1st line of defense)

I'm keeping an eye on it.

For now, it does look like most of the global models have it as a weak wave moving into the GOM, but that is 8 days out, so a lot can change between now and then.

 

[barto]

I saw some info on this storm yesterday on the Weather Channel and they were of the opinion the cooler waters off of the African Coast were going to keep the storm from strengthening much. I was surprised this morning to see the storm had already organized enough to be considered a Tropical Depression.

Here's to hoping nothing comes of this one. That being said, i guess i need to go ahead and pull out my generator and start it up to make sure she's still running!

 

[buzd]

Here's to hoping nothing comes of this one. That being said, i guess i need to go ahead and pull out my generator and start it up to make sure she's still running!

Do it soon. I did it a little later than this time last year, and by the time I found out the bad gas had gummed up my carburetor, all the shops were on a 2-3 week wait to fix it. I got it done early this year, and I'm letting it run for a bit almost every weekend.

 

[FLIPPY]

Do it soon. I did it a little later than this time last year, and by the time I found out the bad gas had gummed up my carburetor, all the shops were on a 2-3 week wait to fix it. I got it done early this year, and I'm letting it run for a bit almost every weekend.

When you shut it off, don't just shut it off, close the gas line valve and let it run out of gas....

 

[buzd]

When you shut it off, don't just shut it off, close the gas line valve and let it run out of gas....

The mechanic told me the opposite. He said to leave treated gas in the carburetor and just shut it off. That seems counter-intuitive to me, but he would know better than me.